Update 8 PM! Today the Day Gabrielle Became a Hurricane!!! AOI 60% Orange Behind Her. AOI 30% Yes Pop Up Close In Areas Do Happen...

 

Hurricane Gabrielle 75 MPH

Out to Sea... Turns East of Bermuda!

New area to watch.

Old AOI, New AOI

Area of Interest.

That does look confusing at first.

Orange area now 60% - Eastern Wave.

New area Yellow 30% - East of Islands.

Both areas 10% for the next 2 days.

60% is the new wave off of Africa. 

30% is the X closest to the Islands.

I've spoken on Pop Up areas to watch out for...

...this is the set up I was talking about.

A bit counterintuitive the new area is bright red.

The C shaped wave further to the East you can see.

Some models....

See the 2 areas of Interest.

See the Fish Storm...

...tho the Fish could impact Europe 

Erin did....

September 30th.....

...things pop up everywhere

Move this forward down the road.

Long term AI models I do not trust.

Well not far down the road.

You want the GFS

Always showing a storm somewhere.

Won't show further down the road.

But it comes up...

...we watch.

I'd like to laugh but too soon.

Just GFS offering drama...

Bottom line is this......... 

 

Too soon to tell. 

Remember the other day there were two areas of interest, then one... well the old one may be back. And, or in truth the area of the SW Atlantic Ocean closer in is ripe with possibilities as something could form or try to form close in. Could go out to sea. Could fall apart. Could try and run up the coast.

Better models tomorrow. Gabrielle is forecast to intensify and look pretty in North Atlantic as I said it would. One will follow the other. But the closer in something develops, the further West it might be and it's too soon to tell.  Will update tomorrow morning!

Please give reading if you did not...it's from earlier this morning. Thanks for checking back!

Sunday AM below - Update above.

This is the state of the tropics on September 21st

2025

Orange hot to trot 40% in 7 days

but slow to form.

Yellow Zero not happening today below.

Sat Image shows the yellow X

X marks the spot.

Sometime later today or tomorrow.

Gabrielle should become a Hurricane.

Spinning safely out in the Atlantic.

She's got a symbiotic relationship with the ULL

It you look to the WSW of Gabrielle....

...you'll see the ULL

They ride together in tandem.

It'll help her become a Hurricane today.

But they remain joined.

Happens.... 

Front is approaching.

We see the ending here....

Looking fairly good on Earthnull.

Dark side there to the WSW.

Keep watching....

...if you are not North Atlantic Spinners.

A view of the basin shows us many things.

Little points of convection.

Some old waves not highlighted are interesting.

For possible pop up development closer in.

And this pattern of possibilities will continue...

... will wait to see if they show up.

Or ride along like a ghost rider....

Nothing much going on today.

What else is there to say?

Josh is going to hunt a real Cane...

..in another basin. 

Knew he would hunt this one!

vs

No comparison.

Though they are tropical...

Oh look a paragraph!! Smiling, truth is there are some long range possibilities that could POP UP close in that could make landfall or they could trace the coastline out to sea. Way too early to say. EURO an old sleepy hound dog today, CMC fantasizing in her bedroom she's a dancer on Broadway spinning around in a leotard and the GFS is doing what the GFS does..........it teases us. Pattern recognition trumps modeling at a time such as this and if the models suits the pattern.........than it's logical. More on that tomorrow. In a mood to dance today, great song and a great Pumpkin Spice Latte I made with my Nespresso Machine and I need to get back to Sprouts to buy more of the creamer I like.........    

I have a busy dance card today....

Have to be somewhere soon.

Carolina Panthers play today...

...is today the day they win?

Other things I want to watch and do...

I'll update later today.

If anything happens in the tropics.

Have the most wonderful......

......inspirational day!

Enjoy the weather if you got it...

Sweet Musical Dreams

BobbiStorm

ps thanks Big Kahuna for the song!!