Hurricane Harbor: Updated 9 PM 90% Red for 94L - 80% in 2 Days. What We Know So Far...........Waiting for 94L to Develop. So Many Questions. No Answers. Models Trying to Deal with Humberto & the Possible Imelda Down the Road.

This is where we are at Thursday evening.

Reality tonight is that Invest 94L has spent a good part of the day trying to get around Hispaniola without hitting any of the highest mountain ranges. There are rain forests, beaches, mountains and high mountains. Seems to have missed the higher mountains. A large flank of convection blew up on her SE side but actually it was a lot of smoke and mirrors. At some point she found a way to squeeze her huge convective area into and currently moving through the Mona Passage. At the same time an area that may be the wave axis is emerging on the North coast of Haiti. From close up it's messy, from far away it's a round ball of convection and looks way better tonight that it did yesterday.

Round moist ball.

I can see it coming together.

Maybe tomorrow. Tomorrow night.

There are so many models.

Staying with the basic Spaghetti Models.

From Mike's Weather Page.

Recon is in it while I type.

They are collecting data....

...next model run has newest data.

So I didn't sleep much last night.

So trying to keep this short and sweet.

It's in the process of forming.

Could get going quickly.

Time line is sooner rather than later.

4 days away if it's the Carolinas.

This is the EURO

Shows Imelda making landfall near Myrtle Beach.

Below is the GFS

Shows Imelda making landfall near Myrtle Beach.

Same day/time.

You can't get much more agreement than that.

But hey we have 2 days for some wrench to crop up.

Or not.

Lot's of options on the table.
I've been up since 4:30 AM

So leaving it here.

Tomorrow we will know more.

Tomorrow NHC better put up a PTC Cone.

As it'll be getting into the 3 day window.

And Bahamas are in it's path or nearby.

So many decisions they will have to make.

Keep reading and thanks for being here.

9 PM Thursday above.

7 AM Thursday below

Using 2 Day first as we are in that range...

Also NHC marks the spot with a red X.

This is where they place 94L

I'll say it again.

NHC expects a TD to form in

Central & NW Bahamas.

That said....

..it'll form in real time where it forms.

But good to remember their timing!

Also remember Recon sampling the atmosphere..

..as I type. That data is priceless.

For upcoming model runs...

Compare and contrast with below from 8 AM

Inched a drop closer to Florida

I'll update the blog or start a new one.

This afternoon.

Today is a day for 94L to move back into the water.

Parts currently over DR & PR

Mona Passage

How far to the right does it go first?

Check back later but keep reading!

2AM from NHC 80% 94L

Going to write a while, while waiting for the 8 AM from the NHC. The 2 AM is above, so you can compare and contrast once the 8 AM is out. All eyes are on Invest 94L as you can obviously see as Humberto is watching as are we all. Hispaniola can disrupt the circulation of a weak hurricane or tropical storm, but in this case it can do odd things to assist or delay development of a tropical wave. While our tropical wave has the name Invest 94L it is still a tropical wave. Lots of updrafts, downdrafts and oozing around in the atmosphere it's energy and convection. Let's look back a bit and remember how we got here.

There has been an ongoing pattern the last month when it was relatively quiet, that weak waves got into this area near the Islands and flared up a bit. Each wave seemed to have more "there" there yet they did not get the attention of the models or the NHC. When the flip was switched recently to "go for lift off" in the Atlantic again, models began to sniff around at a wave that was once highlighted way back when and immediately dropped it from the NHC Main Screen. Then it popped it up again near the Islands and became Invest 94L with high chances of development further up the road closer to the Bahamas. This image from September 18th shows one of these waves that rained on PR and VI and then rained on parts of the Dominican Republic, but nothing official developed. When this keeps happening with regenerated tropical waves in the same spot, you have a pattern that is developing. Pattern recognition this is called.