TS Imelda Forms....... On the Move Finally. Humberto So Close By & Still So Strong. Thoughts on Tropics at the End of September Remember

 

Cone still the same.

See what NHC says at 5 PM

But we now have a Tropical Storm

That's something you don't see every day.

Wind Prob Graphics.

11 AM  TD9

Humberto below.

Yes, you are right....

...that does look similar.

Key Messages for TD9 

Near land and in the Bahamas

(more or less...)

Pretty Loop Below

Keep reading below... I actually wrote this...

...on X as a post in real time.

In a mood was hard to think what to say...

...figured I'd do better making a long post.

Today is an out of the box day. So I decided to write this blog in real time on X and adding to it here with graphics.  Hey hey you got to write when the inspiration grabs you ;)

Gulf has a small something there, Humberto looks so close to ... td9.. li'l wave out in the MDR mentioned before & new wave off of Africa. When do we get Imelda?

Use this loop above as a guide to what I'm saying.  

An image down below as well.

Bit weird format wise today because........

....I wrote it on X in real time.

just scroll down

Thanks

Besos BobbiStorm

Song here vs at the bottom

Really she will be a cowgirl but it's 

2025 so anything goes.

Different song maybe next blog ;)

oday is an out of the box day. I'm going to blog here (write long) then cut & paste inblog with updated thoughts. Gulf small but oddity there, Humberto looks so close to ... td9.. li'l wave out in the MDR mentioned before & new wave off of Africa. When do we get Imelda? I think it's obvious to say that while this was a difficult forecast with lots of moving parts, it really comes down to basic tropical meteorology. Big Major Cane nearby sucks all the life out of the tropics inhibiting diffuse, feeble wave from developing until big Cane goes far away. Let's go back in time to 2023 & I believe Idalia & Franklin, until Franklin moved on Idalia could not really get going in the Atlantic after crossing Florida. I think it was those two but it went on and on even tho Idalia was separated from Franklin by Florida they were close enough that there were questions on interaction. Have to nail down facts later. There are two problems with TD9 (yes 2) the part of it that is forecast to be Imelda soon.... is one part of the in the Northern swath of moisture similar to a "vertical wave complex" (I made that up) and there's a lingering dark red area still South of Cuba hanging back refusing to follow the leader up into the Bahamas. Perhaps that's good as if they both combined it'd already be Imelda and stronger. TD9 should get a name soon it's signature on Earthnull is better, clear center there and just needs a bit more convection and that's happening. What happens with the part down at the base of the "vertical wave complex" is a question. Maybe nothing, maybe something. 2025 has been a year of lots of somethings, lots of nothings and lots of surprises. So don't be surprised if Imelda grows up to be a fancy Cowgirl someday. Humberto ... so many expected it to be a Cat 5 yet NHC was didn't to put it into the forecast til it was catching up...why I'm not sure is what it is and it's spectacular to loop and watch. It's also still lower, slower than I thought it'd be. They are so close. Out in the MDR there is a wave that's struggling, can it pull together ? I can see it wants to but Humberto will probably put an end to that fast. There's a new interesting wave off of Africa. The Gulf has been quiet, but there's a little swirl (not that NHC uses that term in discussion I feel better about saying "a swirl in the Gulf" watch it curiously... I think the forecast from NHC & various NWS along the coastline is carefully done and the area from WPB up to the Cape (Kennedy) may get more than expected tho unless Imelda pulls herself together she will amp up the moisture misery for the state of Florida and that's not hard considering every day of late has been some wild cell and waterspouts offshore. Depending on the STRENGTH of the yet to be Imelda and the forward speed, Carolinas (and Georgia) may have to deal with more than just rain but we are still waiting for time to tell... This is not exactly the hurricane that is going to flip the switch and shoot freezing cold fronts down to the South so I think we will have one somewhere that will down the tropical road. Then again does Imelda (some day soon) move out to sea after dancing with Humberto or does it snap back and come back like the old iconic cat that came back some day. Watch in real time........ Stay tuned it's a definite drama. The good part of this is that everyone knows TD9 is out there and there is a chance.... as a friend would say "there's a chance" that it may stall, loop and evade capture by Humberto and do something surprising.... but in the end it will go out to sea like most storms do eventually (rhymed) so that's it. Keep watching, enjoy the day. Pay attn to your local NWS no one has your local back the way they do and the NHC is trying very hard to nail down the specifics. As for the models... pick the ones you prefer and ignore the rest. If you know basic synoptics and tropical meteorology 101 (updraft ...downdraft) then you knew it would play out this way despite all the models madness. Season not over, who knows what else 2025 has in store for us.... stay aware and prepared. Thanks for reading along in real time and I'll load this up as a blog with some pretty pictures and a song... Have a good Sunday, BobbiStorm

oday is an out of the box day. I'm going to blog here (write long) then cut & paste into blog with updated thoughts. Gulf small but oddity there, Humberto looks so close to ... td9.. li'l wave out in the MDR mentioned before & new wave off of Africa. When do we get Imelda? I think it's obvious to say that while this was a difficult forecast with lots of moving parts, it really comes down to basic tropical meteorology. Big Major Cane nearby sucks all the life out of the tropics inhibiting diffuse, feeble wave from developing until big Cane goes far away. Let's go back in time to 2023 & I believe Idalia & Franklin, until Franklin moved on Idalia could not really get going in the Atlantic after crossing Florida. I think it was those two but it went on and on even tho Idalia was separated from Franklin by Florida they were close enough that there were questions on interaction. Have to nail down facts later. There are two problems with TD9 (yes 2) the part of it that is forecast to be Imelda soon.... is one part of the in the Northern swath of moisture similar to a "vertical wave complex" (I made that up) and there's a lingering dark red area still South of Cuba hanging back refusing to follow the leader up into the Bahamas. Perhaps that's good as if they both combined it'd already be Imelda and stronger. TD9 should get a name soon it's signature on Earthnull is better, clear center there and just needs a bit more convection and that's happening. What happens with the part down at the base of the "vertical wave complex" is a question. Maybe nothing, maybe something. 2025 has been a year of lots of somethings, lots of nothings and lots of surprises. So don't be surprised if Imelda grows up to be a fancy Cowgirl someday. Humberto ... so many expected it to be a Cat 5 yet NHC was didn't to put it into the forecast til it was catching up...why I'm not sure is what it is and it's spectacular to loop and watch. It's also still lower, slower than I thought it'd be. They are so close. Out in the MDR there is a wave that's struggling, can it pull together ? I can see it wants to but Humberto will probably put an end to that fast. There's a new interesting wave off of Africa. The Gulf has been quiet, but there's a little swirl (not that NHC uses that term in discussion I feel better about saying "a swirl in the Gulf" watch it curiously... I think the forecast from NHC & various NWS along the coastline is carefully done and the area from WPB up to the Cape (Kennedy) may get more than expected tho unless Imelda pulls herself together she will amp up the moisture misery for the state of Florida and that's not hard considering every day of late has been some wild cell and waterspouts offshore. Depending on the STRENGTH of the yet to be Imelda and the forward speed, Carolinas (and Georgia) may have to deal with more than just rain but we are still waiting for time to tell... This is not exactly the hurricane that is going to flip the switch and shoot freezing cold fronts down to the South so I think we will have one somewhere that will down the tropical road. Then again does Imelda (some day soon) move out to sea after dancing with Humberto or does it snap back and come back like the old iconic cat that came back some day. Watch in real time........ Stay tuned it's a definite drama. The good part of this is that everyone knows TD9 is out there and there is a chance.... as a friend would say "there's a chance" that it may stall, loop and evade capture by Humberto and do something surprising.... but in the end it will go out to sea like most storms do eventually (rhymed) so that's it. Keep watching, enjoy the day. Pay attn to your local NWS no one has your local back the way they do and the NHC is trying very hard to nail down the specifics. As for the models... pick the ones you prefer and ignore the rest. If you know basic synoptics and tropical meteorology 101 (updraft ...downdraft) then you knew it would play out this way despite all the models madness. Season not over, who knows what else 2025 has in store for us.... stay aware and prepared. Thanks for reading along in real time and I'll load this up as a blog with some pretty pictures and a song... Have a good Sunday, BobbiStorm

I think it's obvious to say that while this was a difficult forecast with lots of moving parts, it really comes down to basic tropical meteorology. Big Major Cane nearby sucks all the life out of the tropics inhibiting diffuse, feeble wave from developing until big Cane goes far away. Let's go back in time to 2023 & I believe Idalia & Franklin, until Franklin moved on Idalia could not really get going in the Atlantic after crossing Florida. I think it was those two but it went on and on even tho Idalia was separated from Franklin by Florida they were close enough that there were questions on interaction. Have to nail down facts later. There are two problems with TD9 (yes 2) the part of it that is forecast to be Imelda soon.... is one part of the in the Northern swath of moisture similar to a "vertical wave complex" (I made that up) and there's a lingering dark red area still South of Cuba hanging back refusing to follow the leader up into the Bahamas. Perhaps that's good as if they both combined it'd already be Imelda and stronger. TD9 should get a name soon it's signature on Earthnull is better, clear center there and just needs a bit more convection and that's happening. What happens with the part down at the base of the "vertical wave complex" is a question. Maybe nothing, maybe something. 2025 has been a year of lots of somethings, lots of nothings and lots of surprises. So don't be surprised if Imelda grows up to be a fancy Cowgirl someday. Humberto ... so many expected it to be a Cat 5 yet NHC was didn't to put it into the forecast til it was catching up...why I'm not sure is what it is and it's spectacular to loop and watch. It's also still lower, slower than I thought it'd be. They are so close. Out in the MDR there is a wave that's struggling, can it pull together ? I can see it wants to but Humberto will probably put an end to that fast. There's a new interesting wave off of Africa. The Gulf has been quiet, but there's a little swirl (not that NHC uses that term in discussion I feel better about saying "a swirl in the Gulf" watch it curiously... I think the forecast from NHC & various NWS along the coastline is carefully done and the area from WPB up to the Cape (Kennedy) may get more than expected tho unless Imelda pulls herself together she will amp up the moisture misery for the state of Florida and that's not hard considering every day of late has been some wild cell and waterspouts offshore. Depending on the STRENGTH of the yet to be Imelda and the forward speed, Carolinas (and Georgia) may have to deal with more than just rain but we are still waiting for time to tell... This is not exactly the hurricane that is going to flip the switch and shoot freezing cold fronts down to the South so I think we will have one somewhere that will down the tropical road. Then again does Imelda (some day soon) move out to sea after dancing with Humberto or does it snap back and come back like the old iconic cat that came back some day. Watch in real time........ Stay tuned it's a definite drama. The good part of this is that everyone knows TD9 is out there and there is a chance.... as a friend would say "there's a chance" that it may stall, loop and evade capture by Humberto and do something surprising.... but in the end it will go out to sea like most storms do eventually (rhymed) so that's it. Keep watching, enjoy the day. Pay attn to your local NWS no one has your local back the way they do and the NHC is trying very hard to nail down the specifics. As for the models... pick the ones you prefer and ignore the rest. If you know basic synoptics and tropical meteorology 101 (updraft ...downdraft) then you knew it would play out this way despite all the models madness. Season not over, who knows what else 2025 has in store for us.... stay aware and prepared. Thanks for reading along in real time and I'll load this up as a blog with some pretty pictures and a song... Have a good Sunday, BobbiStorm

Adding a link to August 2023 when there was talk that Idalia would do odd crazy things like Ginger from 1971 an odd crazy year and in the end it intensified up in the Atlantic (after crossing Florida and went out to sea.  https://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/2023/08/