UPDATED! 11 PM Zeta 60 MPH Moving Very Slowly - Enjoying it's Safe Bubble Down in the Caribbean... Forecast to Launch N Soon Then Go Hyperspeed Towards Landfall on GOM & Into Appalachia

11 PM Zeta is not 60 MPH.

Hasn't moved much.

The song "do the hokey pokey" ...

...comes ot mind.

Zeta has spent the day trying to climb back to where it was doing a slow crawl over the same area yet the baronetric pressure has dropped and the winds are up to 60 MPH and it is forecast to possibly be a hurricane by the time it hits the Yucatan area ...then moves faster towards it's date with destiny in the Northern Gulf of Mexico.

I know this will change often but ...

...would be an ironic end to the 2020 season.

Let's look up close at that location.

Compare, contrast with earlier in the day.

Getting closer to @icyclone's Hurricane House.

Hey life isn't like a Hollywood movie, well unless it was inspired by real life events and I'm no longer holding a grudge, but if you could make an ending for this season wouldn't it be the most classic movie ending for Zeta to make landfall near @icyclone's Hurricane House with his perfect perch on his folksy porch to look out over the Gulf of Mexico at what should be a Tropical Storm after battling shear and lower water temperatures and just sit on that iconic rocker, watching the view thinking "this wasn't such a boring summer afterall"     THE END   The camera fades away to the sounds of the wind and the waves .... 

Easier to write a novel or a screen play than for the NHC to be sure which models are right and they are waiting for recon to go in and feed that data into the next few runs and well you know the drill. But time will tell as always and models are hungry for more Caribbean action down the road as ETA is the NEXT storm and that means we have 2 E storms in the Greek Alphabet. 2020 you have been amazing. Personally so glad I'm not graduating from High School this year... 2020 would be a real buzz kill for Senior Year. Personally, I had my senior prom at the Playboy Plaza... I'd hate to have to look back in time and tell my grandchildren "well we all got dressed up and did a Zoom Prom or we wore masks to the football field and well then as it was 2020 we did it again!

Sweet Tropical Dreams.

I watched the incredible documentary "537 Votes" tonight by Alfred Spellman and Billy Corben and others who made me relive that election that was made famouse for all the boys named Chad... and I got to watch old best friends talking and running and others screaming and I got to remember what Banana Republic Miami was that year .... who needs a muse for inspiration, just use Miami and the story tells itself. 

*** keep reading if you didn't do so I'll update Monday Morning***

 

Oh Zeta... Where are you going?

Leading with DaBuh here today. 

Where Zeta is forecast to be eventually.

Where it is now.

Almost looks like the base of a trough doesn't it?

Next trof up towards NW

The finish line as of Sunday Morning below.

That's from NHC interactive cone.

Can compare and contrast later..

Kind of like let's play NASCAR

The Iconic Vanilla Cone below.

No sprinkles, no sauce.

Single Scoop

Again let's look at the long term.

Because every city matters!

Inland impacts are always important.

But when a front mixed up with a tropical system...

...moves towards the Appalachians inland.

It can add an extra layer of misery.

If you are unsure where that is...

...it's really not just the South.

Anywhere that elevation plays a role in life.

https://medium.com/migration-issues

/where-is-appalachia-2d240d74161b

Leaving that there to read it later ...

...i so love geography!

So this is my issue with the forecast.

It's been backing up vs moving forward.

Why? It's in a nice safe spot.

Low shear, warm water.

Why would it want to leave just now?

Eventually a front dips down 

and grabs it.

PULLS IT FAST up towards the GOM.

That's the forecast.

My thoughts explaining this below.

This safe sweet spot allows Zeta to intensify.

Consolidate, bulk up for it's journey North.

Bottom graphic.

Zeta retrogressing backwards.

Current movement vs forecast movement.

Models show the next chapter in this Greek Drama.

Gotta love www.spaghettimodels.com

Models are generally tightly clustered.

So why did I bring up the Applachians?

Watch Zeta approach the coast.

Check that out... about to make landfall.

Next frame it's gone.

Absorbed by the front.

See?

The good news is it's forecast to move fast.

Localized flooding can be a problem..

...when you deal with elevation.

Mountains, hills, piedmonts.

My botton line with Zeta on Sunday at Noon is I'm not 100% sure what it will do as we are getting way deep into late October and this is looking more like a November system that more likely does what it wants, what the atmosphere allows and surprises are often an issue this time of year both politicaly and weather wise.  It could get strong fast where it is or upwelling could become a problem as it is barely moving or it can keep backing up and the ledge of Central America could become more of a problem than the tip of the Yucatan. Not to say I'm not a believer of the end game trip North but it's too busy tailgating to care about the start of the game if you know what I mean?

And if it doesn't develop into a beautiful, tightly wound up system then the shear from the approaching front will lift the weather away from Zeta and dump it to the East towards Florida and tornadoes are very prone to develop in systems that aren't formed well and merging with a cold front. Because when all that warm tropical air meets the cold, dry air of the front ...something's gotta give. It's a perfect set up for Severe Weather.

Stay tuned and watch for any deviation from the forecast movement by the NHC because every cone gets adjusted in real time and by the time it gets to where it's going.... we may need some sprinkles and whipped cream... miniature candy corn even!

Besos BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram.

Ps... another system is forecast to develop after this one in the same general area but different name, different front, different time on the calendar. Come Monday... late in the day... we should know more about what Zeta will or won't do. But for today... have a really wonderful, happy Sunday making memories and hopefully doing what you want to do vs what you are forced into doing. And, ya see that applies to Zeta also...what does it really do?  Doesn't he look awesome intense in the video below?  You can't make up 2020 so just go with the flow and adjust accordingly... with music and a sense of humor!!