Hurricane Harbor: UPDATED Epsilon Forms in the Atlantic as Forecast By the NHC to Do So -tropical depression 27 forms forecast to be Epsilon any hour now... Models Back Off of Caribbean System BUT A LOT of Moisture Down There So Keep Watching. Zeta Is Out There Somewhere...

My thoughts on that below.

I'm not sure why the NHC decided to delete certain letters towards the end of the Alphabet way back when they began using names as it's rare to get to Q in most years, but perhaps they foresaw Global Warmings because they knew one day we would get to Q and then run out of Q names. The logic was there were few Q names, but here we are in 2020 and we could have had Hurricane Queenie but instead we switch over to the Greek Letters. So had we used all 26 letters in the alphabet this would be Z not E for Epsilon. 2020 has been such an interesting year, probably more funny looking back in the rear view mirror. You know like... wondering why 100 years ago boys had contests to show their potential girlfriends they could swallow more goldfish than their other suitor. Google it.

Forecast to be Hurricane Epsilon.

Check back later if any yellow circles pop up.

Or anything new happens.

Bermuda needs to pay attention to Epsilon!

NOTE NWS has many warnings up so...

...if you are in these shaded areas.

Check them out.

https://www.weather.gov/

For example Melbourne.

A great NWS office to follow.

Check yours out today!

https://www.weather.gov/

Keep reading if you haven't.

It's only an hour or so old.

I knew they were upgrading to E at 11 AM.

So I started at the end not the beginning...

;)

* * *

TD 27 Forms in the Atlantic.

Forecast to be TS Epsilon

Let's start at the end not the beginning.

The above is the EURO for Epsilon on Saturday.

It grows in size and strength....

A huge wind and wave maker....

...parked off the East coast for days.

Also from www.windy.com is the GFS

Using different filters so it tells more of the story.

Friday night there's Epsilon

A strong front approaches fromthe West.

Snow shows on the map on the Plains later.

Some moisture down in the GOM.

Moisture vs a storm as of today.

Discussion this morning from the Advisory package is not really worth going into, as mostly it defends their use of the phrase "Tropical Depression" vs "Subtropical Depression" and as they wrote such a good defense I'm thinking they should be the moderator of the next Presidential Debates because they definitely know how to put up a good defense. So I started with the end as they insist this will be Epsilon and it's way more tropical than subtropical and so know it most likely will be upgraded as soon as possible. They even talk on how it may have been briefly, but not now but will be so let's just do a De Facto discussion I decided and begin with the ending vs the beginning.

As of now chances are 20% on a Caribbean system as models have stepped back from the ledge on that one, but at some point something develops. But at the moment Epsilon may take a lot of the energy out of the Atlantic and as models have come into seeming agreement currently on what it does we will wait on the next few model runs to say otherwise. The bottom line here today is SURFS UP a long the East Coast across a wide swath of the coastline and so swimmers beware and surfers are already aware!