UPDATED!! 2 AM CATEGORY 4...moving 6 MPH NW IRMA MOVING VERY SLOW NNW AFTER CRAWLING ACROSS CUBA....Trying to Cross the Florida Straits Towards the Keys... South Florida.. Then UP the W Coast or? Where does it go? Needs to pick up speed. Massive Power Outages in Miami Broward and Monroe County. Trees Down. Some Localized Street Flooding Along the Coast.
CAT 4 AGAIN
six mph forward speed...
steady and slow.
As I said in the blog.
Irma would easily intensify to Cat 4
Over warm waters of Straits
Moving slow helps her intensify.
Full update in AM after 8 AM
sweet tropical dreams
Ps... good part of Miami Beach w/o power.
No power in Key West now.
Huge power outages in Dade, Broward, Monroe
At this point it will take 10 hours ...
...for Irma to get to Lower Keys
Key West, Big Pine, Marathon.
Cars can move faster on Duval St. on Sat Nite..
Note the NRL map below.
Rather than focus on long term.
1st: Hitting the Florida Keys
2nd: Landfall where?
3rd: Where in FL?
4th FL GA ALABAMA
OR
FL GA SC?
Priorities.. Florida Keys.
Irma Intensifiying
Barometer dropping.
Recon finding stronger winds.
Note map below shows strong winds SC
You can watch LIVE on WSVN Miami.
If you can't sleep.
Full update in AM.
I'll add things at top if needed.
Irma became a balsero floating ...
...to Keys from Cuba.
Who Knew?
Sweet Tropical Dreams
(for now)
Bobbistorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter 1
The cone above.
Discussion below.
Impt part in blue.
NW at 6 MPH.
Do that math..
Will take a LONG time to get to FL.
Unless it speeds up rapidly.
And I expect slow, steady movement.
Note I said nonstop for days any movement over Cuba would take a big bite out of it's intensity and that happened.. This always happens; often it ramps up again in the Florida Straits. Some shear can stop it from intensifying stronger. Time will tell but we owe Cuba a big one. And they took a big hit on the North Coast of Cuba as Irma was moving slowly when it traveled across the North Backbone of Cuba. You can see on all imagery that Irma is slowly pulling NW and soon more NNW towards the Florida Keys. That's her first stop so that we can see. Where exactly she makes landfall on the mainland is hard to see. Why? Because the angle of approach parallels the coast of Florida. So any wobble or small movement will mean the different of offshore and landfall. That said the storm surge will move into all the cities along the path as the storm surge keeps on rolling no matter what the wind speed does so remember that. Going to switch over here to Canadian Tracking Map because they show the coast and the track better. If you look at that map you will see how hard it is to predict who gets landfall.
It basically traces the coast on their map.
Their map is similar to the NHC.
Now note another paragraph from discussion.
There is a big debate on possible intensity.
Actually there is a debate on current intensity.
Let's not go there.
Watch in real time.
I've seen Canes crossing the Straits...
...over perform before.
HOT WATER
Strong core.
Some shear from front.
Time will tell.
Structure is there.
Barometric pressure LOW
Winds will increase.
Note the image above.
Note what he says.
It has great structure.
It will pop... and grow.
Grown in intensity and size.
Another voice to listen to...
As I said Irma is seeking out the front to her North.
She's lifting more than moving.
The cone is wide.
No matter what she does...
..she'll be in the cone.
She is NOW the tail end of that old front.
This is not rocket science.
You don't need 100 models to tell this tale.
The rain forecast is shown above.
Note E of Jax the cone bends ENE
Rainfall product.
Before it gets up into GA TN
Time of arrival of winds.
Another view of Irma and Jose.
Again Irma is merging into the front.
Close up of Irma.
Wide water vapor image.
Jose looks stronger than Irma above.
The dip in the Jet Stream obvious.
Irma at the base of the the front.
Where's that saving grace..
Below we see a face... NW of Jose.
What a grin.
Long arms... pushing Jose.
Jose pushed Irma West.
But reinforcing the high behind Irma.
The's a HIGH to the WNW of Irma.
She pulled N to the safety of the front.
Cone for Jose.
Jose is a looper.
Going look like a fish.
Jose is a player.
Watch for a loop down the road.
Another image.
Irma. Tail end of old front.
Short wave trough far away still.
Florida to the North of Irma.
Mike has a great page for IRMA.
Just IRMA info.
Old discussion below.
Old cone.
Great loops.
'
Do not be confused by cloud cover.
This loop above is the actual hurricane.
The reds, the pinks.. is the real weather.
You can see the strong bands far to the North..
..over Florida.
Irma is just pulling North of Cuba.
Again the BLUES... is the Hurricane.
Extreme tropical weather.
Hurricane and TS winds spreading up over Florida.
The eye very visible below is off the N coast of Cuba.
The loop below is the whole convective system.
You see ALL the moisture?
The loop above is IRMA.
Note Jose like a speeding bullet also.
Jose behind Irma is no slouch.
Jose moving W reinforced the High Pressure.
Pushing Irma more W than WNW today.
Katia made landfall over Mexico.
Lee is forming closer to Africa..
So the cone below is the NHC product. I'm not sold on the 4th or 5th day of the Cone. I need to be sold. I'm not yet. It's obvious Irma might try to merge with the front. While waiting for the short wave trough to pick her up.. she is slowly, barely moving trying to merge with the front that is now more of a stationary front. Note the word stationary.... while forecast to move she is barely moving. The NHC forecast is for "forecast" speed. It may not verify. It's a fast crawl right now. Key West is 90 Miles from Havana (give or take) and it will take quite a while to get there crawling at 9 MPH. I need to be sold it's moving that fast. It may be trying to make the turn wNw however it's looks more like North of West currently. Many historical storms doing this Cuba up WNW towards Florida track move slow. Some stall, some move slow; it will not pick up speed until the short wave trough picks it up. If and when... so until then we wait. Til then hunker down. You can see this dance on the water vapor loop below.
You can see the short wave trough above.
Moving down through Arkansas..
..or into Iowa.
It's digging.
The stalled out front is to the N of Irma.
Irma will want to ride the front until the trough shows up.
Let's see what it does overnight.
I'll do a late night update after the 11 PM discussion.
I have a house filled with people.
Nice lunch... good to see them.
Talked to the kids in Miami still with power.
Many of their friends have lost power.
Several of their friends report trees down.
Talking Miami to FLL area.
The kids may be here awhile...
Irma could go anywhere in that grid shown above.
BUT most likely will slide N up the W coast of FL
Energy may be transferred NE.
I'm not sold on the NW track at the end of the cone.
You see that dry line setting up?
North of IRMA.
Gets tugged wnw.
Maybe NW
Then wants to go to North Florida.
Hurricanes always want to go POLEWARD.
Jose follows behind.
More on Jose later.
It's interesting to see all my kids on Spaghetti Models ..
They go to Mike's site right away :)
Everyone should
I'll update later.
Please listen to the video below.
He's good.
Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter
Ps.. I'll be live blogging later tonight.
Going to be a long night in South Florida
And my beautiful Key West
Again note Tornado Warnings in South Florida
Labels: bobbistorm, Cuba, History, hurricane, Irma, keywest, kw, miami, models, spaghettimodels, tornadoes, weather
posted by BobbiStorm @ 6:45 PM
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