UPDATED at 5 PM.IRMA CAT 5 WEST at 12 MPH .. WHERE WHEN DOES SHE TURN TOWARDS FLORIDA

WEST AT 12 MPH.

IMPT CONE.

Everyone in Miami keeps asking me..

"when is the weather going to start??"

THIS CONE ABOVE.

Figure 8 AM TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS.

SUSTAINED TS WINDS.

BE INSIDE

Then the cone tracking the EYE

Know the Jose is now a Major Hurricane.

Track for Jose.

150 MPH WINDS

JOSE.

Track below.

Goes out to sea.. 

...possibly loops back.

Katia is a hurricane also.

Still there moving slowly.

Still I believe a factor in the steering currents.

That's my belief.

NOT NHC.

NHC Discussion at 5 was very weak.

Shallow.

Just the basics... 

Irma still on track to do the turn..

I'll update more later 

Cooking as I have people from Miami here.

Or they will be here.

Many of my kids are  there..

...many on I95 North.

One best friend very scared...

... I'll be back soon.

Please note below

1926 Hurricane Pics from Miami Beach.

POST Hurricane.

It is DANGEROUS TO STAY.

But many buildings stood.

Thats the old Roney Plaza.

Pancoast Hotel ON THE BEACH.

Damaged but people survived.

Well most did.

Another picture below.

It's bad. 

But people do survive.

But it's a night of living hell.

Hope Jose keeps going West..

any interaction over Cuba could help a bit.

Dangerous storm.

One for the history books.

I'll update about 6 PM

Old info below.

Compare and contrast track now

..with then.

West at 14 MPH.

West at 14 MPH.

I'll say it again.

Because every degree West is big.

It is more IMPT to watch FWD Speed.

And to watch direction.

Than to worry on models.

Or worry on 160 MPH vs 155 MPH.

Is Irma slowing to make a turn?

Or is the high weaker?

If that trend continues at 5 ....

...there is much to talk about.

http://crownweather.com/

I have a friend Rob.

He has a pay service.

He's good.

I'm putting out a few of his thoughts.

Click on the box below:

Also he put this up.

It's good advice.

People who have not left and are staying.

In the Cone for a Cat 4 or 5 Hurricane.

I've been asked to post this.

1. Keep your children close to you in the house. 

2. Find a spot, hunker down together. Pretend you are camping out.

3. Let them know in advance Hurricanes are LOUD and NOISY.

4. Let them know things will hit the house and make loud noises.

5. Try to make it a game..."what was that?"

6. Offer them prizes for after the hurricane. Like we will go see Grandma in Iowa.

7. If they have helmets such as skateboarding or biking... tell them to put them on.

     Why you ask? Children often are injured in hurricanes by flying debris.. 

     Plaster can fall, windows can break after shutters come off... debris flies around.

     The best way to protect a small child is to keep their head safe. Sounds basic right?

     Make a game out of it. Promise them a new bike.. If the house is compromised...

     Wearing a helmet, hiding under a twin size mattress is better than not.

8. Obviously they need crayons and things as the iPad is going to be offline.

9. Monitor them carefully if you have the bathtubs with water.. (drowning threat)

10. Any bleach you have out to purify water... keep it far from the kids.

Normally we do these things but in a hurricane we get distracted and nervous and sometimes do not do what we do normally; nothing is normal in a hurricane.

I hate to bring these things up but in a worse case scenario ... and someone from Florida City to the East Coast or the SW coast of Florida IS going to get the worst case scenario. IF the eye misses your location you could be in the dangerous eye wall for hours. You will only know the integrity of the construction and safety of your house AFTER THE HURRICANE. So prepare for the worst, pray for the best.

As for current movement discussion of the stubborn Irma that wants to go West like Georges.. we just have to watch it more than the models. 

The front that moved through the Carolinas has diminished in intensity and is stretched thin. Much like the power companies will be when they try to reconnect your electric. Part of the energy went NE.. another part went SW down towards Katia in the BOC. I don't know why few have discussed the small part Katia plays in the steering currents for IRMA but I am telling you it has a small effect on the whole pattern. There is HIGH pressure behind Irma and to the NE of Irma. Their is moisture to the North and NW of Irma. It's a very complicated steering pattern. Often major hurricanes have strange interaction with land. The friction becomes like an attraction and they hold onto land longer than forecast.

The EYE of IRMA is obviously NOT over land but the southern part of Irma has pulled along the North coast of Cuba the way it did over the N coast of Hispaniola the way it did over the N coast of Puerto Rico. See a pattern here? Look at the image below. Is Irma moving steady West or WNW. Is it wobbling or slowing or holding steady. Spoiler alert the NHC is very hesitant to change direction they don't do so for a wobble.

I'll update at 5 PM.

Updated track.

Very similar to 5 AM.

Small nudge to the West.

At 5 PM they can nudge it back.

11 AM below

5 AM below.

Smallest nudge west.

Same track basically.

I want you to use this feature on the NHC site.

It's interactive.

You can put the satellite view on.

From far away...

You can zoom in closer.

Google Maps style.

You can go really close in...

I'll update in real time later today. The truth is this is a hard call for any forecaster even the best ones at the NHC. They do their best to protect you but the hurricane doesn't always follow a model. A model suggests a possibility; that is all it is a suggestion of what the future track is... and nothing more. If you live in South Florida South of Orlando... Tampa to 

I will discuss Jose at some point but Jose is NOW a dangerous small sized Cat 4 Hurricane. I know you can't make this up. I have been screaming into the wind for years that just because we have a few quiet years thanks to Sir El Nino doesn't mean hurricanes are gone they are just in hiding; think stealth model And speaking of stealth mode... what may become Lee has peaked out wearing yellow in the NHC main page.

More on that later.

Biggest concern here is this.

People in Miami or FLL or Naples or WPB need to start thinking NOW what they will do AFTER they survive the Hurricane. Their house may be intact with damage they cannot see on first inspection but they will feel lucky. The whole infrastructure is going down IF the worst case scenario occurs. We are talking power outages for a month or so not a week or two. Cable, phone service... possibly water not usable for days. School could be closed for weeks (i mean that) and if you need regular medical care you may need to figure out if there is somewhere you can go for a month or so out of Florida. Now is a good time to have a relative up north. Every family has it's own concerns. Every person has their own issue. The big issue here is AFTER we get past landfall and Irma moves on you need a plan and a back up plan for how to live for the next several weeks. We can pray for a miracle but we need to be aware and prepare for a real possibility. Next if you don't have the money (been there) you may not have a job to go to for a while and the Gov is really good about issuing emergency food stamps and offering help. But IF it takes this crazy path across a large area densely populated then it's going to be slow going. So while you have time now start calling around or thinking where to go or what to do IF you need to move somewhere until things get better. Some people are old with health issues. Asthmatics don't do well after the storm when every dead tree is piled up on the curb waiting months for pick up and moldy sofas sitting on top of that. After Andrew they did not pick up the curbside debris until early October. Andrew hit in late August. Pregnant women, people with disabilities etc may need to leave. Strong healthy people will clean up, help their family and friends and neighbors help rebuild Miami again into the city that it was before. And when I say "Miami" that's my concern but it could be Hollywood or Naples or West Palm Beach. Don't focus on the term "Miami" it's one huge city from there up to WPB with different names we use... 

So... those are my thoughts.

As to RUMORS...

Turkey Point is an OLD crappy Nuclear plant that works... like an old car you fix up often. It has had problems in the last year and there was a storm of controversy over it recently. It should handle a storm, they may shut it down. It doesn't matter... YOU ARE LOSING POWER with or without Turkey Point online. Note article below from 2016 when there was a lot of media discussion and concern over Turkey Point and Biscayne Bay.

http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/2016/03/difficulties-of-turkey-point-keeping.html

The Lake....... has not been tested by a hurricane like IRMA... few places have and I'm worried on the levees and the whole South Florida Water Management system IF they have a problem. They may not have a problem. 

Don't trust rumors.  You got enough to worry about but I am saying it's a big problem.

More to come... Thanks for your patience.   Bobbi. 

PS Keep reading. 

Still WNW at 16 MPH

The RED is the REAL Hurricane DANGER

Don't confuse the cloud cover.

With the Hurricane Force winds.

So putting BOTH these here below.

To show you the real danger.

Keep in mind the EYE is down near Cuba.
OFF the N coast of Cuba.



Excellent Discussion at 5 AM from NHC
Important parts to read below.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT1+shtml/080846.shtml

Excellent discussion from the NHC as always by Beven as he explains more about the actual issues they are dealing with as they try to forecast a hurricane that has moved steadily WNW at 16 MPH but that has been consistently forecast to make a turn ... somewhere.  You can understand it, go slow and read the link below. The above was his two caveats so I am highlighting them here in this post. The track of Irma is shown below in a preliminary map of the 2017 Hurricane Season. It gets filled it move by move. The pink plus signs are where the EYE is forecast to go. The HURRICANE filled with hurricane force winds will cover most of Southern Florida moving up at an angle we are not sure of but is being forecast to turn..... somewhere.

Note the front is thinning in the middle.

Katia goes SW

Front pulls away.
Leaves Irma behind ...

Where's that short wave?

Water vapor loop below.

Watch the dark river of air diving SE

That is the "short wave"

..that may grab Irma.

My son keeps asking how a Cat 5 gets grabbed...

...how it makes a hard right turn?

It probably doesn't.

It probably moves more NW...

..up over Florida in the short term.

The real question is the cone below.

Really don't know what Florida did to IRMA?

What IRMA will do to Florida is the question.

A real worst case scenario for the STATE.

Looking at Mike's graph.

Listening ... 

..watching people's questions and comments.

WHERE DOES IRMA TURN.

Models:

More info from Mike's Spaghetti Models

I'm going to post this information above now and I am going to go long on discussion below. I will be adding discussion and thoughts over the next few hours. I wanted to get the main point of this post out.

BobbiStorm's Bottom Line:

Hurricane Irma is an extremely dangerous Major Category 5 Hurricane that is forecast to make a turn towards the Florida Peninsular "somewhere" and at an angle of approach we are not sure of at some point in the future but we are not sure then. Honestly THAT is what they are telling you their cone. They have drawn the cone to protect the people in the path of Irma. If you do NOT get the EYE of Irma you could get EYEWALL winds raking your home, neighborhood...schools, churches, hospitals and loved ones for several hours; major category five hurricane force winds. So do not think that if you are not in the eye you are fine. The eye wall is what did horrific damage in Miami in places like Country Walk that were far from the eye; that and crappy construction not monitored properly. Homes built after Hurricane Andrew with stricter building codes and regulation will be tested by Irma. I hope they hold up to their promos...   

IF you get the EYE and are along the coast you will get a massive storm surge and you may have boats on top of what is left of your house; really nice boats.. sailboats, speed boats and anything the wind has picked up and deposited further inland. In the Keys there is storm surge annihilating my much loved, beautiful Florida Keys. I can't even go there even here. IF the eye wall hits a populated city the loss of life can be huge as many are refusing to leave feeling safe in their "hurricane proof" condos next to cranes from buildings under construction that could go flying in the wind. IF the cranes hold... the building supplies ... a building under construction comes apart like a toy. Every piece of debris is carried with the wind and slams into whatever it slams into at winds and gusts that could be 150 MPH so really doubt the new fancy, beautiful buildings in Miami or the man Broward County cities will survive.

Inland you hunker down in a well built home with shutters and you pray.You stay strong for your kids if you have them and you wait for the storm to pass. It's that simple. Your home may survive, your car may not survive. I cannot guarantee anything. Odd things happen in a hurricane. 

If you have loved ones who have stayed do not argue with them... at some point tell them you love them and pray. Keep in touch as long as you can and trust me you have done things they didn't like at some point also. It is what it is.

It is Irma. Mike put an IRMA page up on his site with just IRMA info.

http://www.spaghettimodels.com/irma

I'll be adding more thoughts below.. I just want to get the basics out. IF you can figure out where and when Irma turns and you are young. Go into meteorology. I know the pay sucks but it's an awesome job and we need to pay meteorologists more money and we need to invest in better models like the EURO. Maybe the GFS wills surprise us... One thing with a Major Hurricane you can take to the bank is something will surprise you.

Oh and there was a HUGE Earthquake off Mexico ?? 8.0? I've been worried on the New Madrid personally but that can't be good. For the geologists in here.

Besos BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter

PS... when looking at wild up close loops of Irma on Mike's Facebook Live.. LOOK DEEP inside the eye you will see the vortices inside spinning. And, forgive any typos I have FOUR children in Hollywood Florida that are going to ride out the storm. I have 3 grandchildren there. I have 3 best friends I love all riding out the storm and I love Miami and the Florida Keys the way you love your lover. So I am a little stressed. I have 3 other children in Orlando hunkered down, a grandson there and my son Levi got his wife and baby girl Charlotte on a one way flight to JFK... last flight he could find. So he and the other part of the family ...and the grandson Benjamin that LOVES Firetrucks are going to ride out the storm in Orlando...  I'm a little stressed so hope this blog read well because it's my goal to inform and educate with solid information that helps explain what the NHC is telling you as well as with my knowledge of hurricane history explain a bit more about hurricanes and what they do. And regulars here know I have been saying over and over and over. At some point Miami and South Florida gets hit again with a real classic hurricane like Donna or the 1926 Hurricane and currently Irma is a blend of those two tracks. Much love....keep checking back I update often all day.