Hurricane Harbor: Major Hurricane Irma and the Ridge.. Models, Historical Hurricanes and Extremely Severe Weather in Raleigh with Tornado Warnings..Thank You Harvey Remnants.

Irma. Category 3 Again.

Eye wall replacement cycle over.

The map I like for you to pay attention to..

If you are in the shaded area of this grid you need to carefully pay attention to the storm even if you are far out from where the storm is as it's the best measure of who needs to worry vs watch. Wind probs are as far North as Ponce, PR and down by Barbados. Note they correlate to the map above from the NRL and that is why I tell you to pay attention to that map.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIAPWSAT1+shtml/012050.shtml?

Donut shape of Irma.

Cat 3.

The High has become to dig in...

The Westward Motion has begun.

Watch for that WSW dip.

Very good discussion at 5 Phttp://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT1+shtml/012050.shtml

Please click and read it for yourself. It's better to read this discussion and get familiar with it than what every person scared on Facebook says about Irma. It's kind of like rumor control. It's the truth vs hype. The Cone is shown below. Note at any point the High can push it more to the West than this cone shows currently. Easy to look at it and say it's going to curve up to the Carolinas but again it depends on the High.

Models.

I just don't want to focus on models today.

Sunday is my day for Model Discussion.

You get the idea..........

....it's coming this way.

You can see Irma below...

..as well as what I'm dealing with as I type.

Yeah.. Look at Inland Harvey.

Just as problematic as always.

You can see Irma out there.

Far away.

Harvey is still causing problems here.

Close up radar of my area.

I'm writing this as Raleigh is under siege from extremely severe weather from the remnants of Havey mixing it up with a cold front that is trying to move South. The mixing the air has caused (and this is a so far list):

Flooding
Hail the size of baseball (not common in NC)
Tornado on the ground
Thunder, lightning.
Heavy Rain.
RDU closed Friday night at the start of Labor Day Weekend.
2 Active Tornado Warnings.
Structures with roof collapse.
Trees down.
Since I typed 2...there are now 3 Tornado Warnings (i type fast)
Huge Power Outages.

There was discussion we would get bad weather but the remnants would go to the North but seems as always Harvey makes his own decisions.

For those of you playing Hurricane Poker a Big Ridge beats an Upper Level Low. A Big Ridge is forecast to build to the North of Irma keeping her Westbound ... until the edge of the Big Ridge. That is the basic steering currents of every long tracking Atlantic Hurricane born in Cabo Verde. Add in the possibility of a trof or low (you'll hear both terms) over North America and the final scene is yet to be written in this weather drama. The players are there and it's a game of improvise in ways as the atmosphere is fluid and there are no dress rehearsals. It plays out in real time and the cities that do not get Irma get a rose and get to exhale and further upstream people worry and prepare.

The cost of gasoline has gone up as predicted by Harvey hitting an area rich in oil, gas and messing up the Colonial Pipeline. Oddly Hurricane Harvey took a bite out of the Labor Day Weekend as many have decided to stay closer to home. A long ride down to the beach is no longer in the cards for many. Several people interviewed on TV today said they feel they should stay close to home and maybe think on how to prepare in case another hurricane makes landfall. There are two types of people. If we are going to get washed away in a hurricane we may as well go party today and those who go shopping FINALLY for food, batteries, medicine and things they may need in case a hurricane really makes landfall near their town. Which kind are you?

People from Florida up to Maine are nervously eyeing Hurricane Irma, back to being a Major Hurricane again, and wondering where she will go if she does not go out to sea. I'm pretty sure survivors of Andrew, Hugo and Fran will to to church and temple this weekend and say a prayer it stays away from land. People who have been there, know what it means to be there...

I want you to look at the 3 hurricanes below. It is very possible that Irma does something like they did in it's own unique way. I have to post this before we lose power as our lights are flicking. No proofing, sorry but it's crazy here in the Raleigh general area. So yeah, tracks like those below could be analogs for Irma.