Hurricane Harbor: UPDATED 11 PM... 5 Day Cone Extended UP through NC, SC, GA...Cat 5 Hurricane IRMA Makes Move Towards PR then Takes on FL. People Evacuate or Hunker Down. Then Where Does She Go. 3 Hurricanes in Atlantic Jose Following Irma... Katia Running Away SW Towards Pacific...

11 PM

Forecast points still slide along the coast of Florida.

No way of knowing for sure yet if it makes landfall.

Either way the HURRICANE FORCE WINDS WILL.

When we say "landfall" we mean the center of the eye.

The part of FL that sticks out the most... in danger.

Then it moves up towards Savannah.

Maybe Brunswick, Georgia area.

I can promise you this cone will change again.

Subtle changes but change it will.

NRL Map ... Huge Area.

Wind probabilities now go up through DC.

This is a story bigger than Florida.

I love Florida.

I'm a Florida girl.......

...living in Carolina.

This storm impacts both my homes.

My family there and friends here.

I have kids on stuck on the Florida Turnpike.

I have kids in Orlando tonight.

I have kids in Hollywood and Walnut Creek.

Broward County.

Here in Raleigh we have our own view of Irma.

Again this is aiming at Florida.

But it's so much bigger than Florida.

Irma could affect the whole East Coast.

Sooooooo...

Being honest this is huge for me.

Huge for many.

Hugely impacts I-95 cities.

All the way possibly up through DC.

Tomorrow maybe further.

Governor of NORTH Carolina..

issuing State of Emergency in the morning.

See wind probs below.

Discussion highlights from NHC.

Keeping the cone the same.

Models pulling East...

...but the aren't sold on that yet.

Waiting on over night models.

And the "short wave" to develop.

Add in the final coordinates from NHC

It's a 5 day forecast.

It can change.

So you are wondering where it is at 110 MPH.

If you put those cords into Google Search.

Near Savannah, Georgia.

That's not a given but a forecast.

Forecasts change.

And there's Irma below.

Probably a whole generation of girls named Irma soon.

Happens. Lots of Andrews born in the early 90s.

Irma's moving at a steady clip.

Note the size below of Irma.

Look at the size of Irma.

Wider than the State of Florida.

This should give you a better perspective of the concerns on the size and intensity of Irma. Should Irma stay off shore of South Florida part of it will cover Florida with Tropical Storm force winds and unknown magnitude hurricane force winds. I say unknown because until we see it's track we won't know if Davie gets Cat 3 force winds or if it gets Cat 2 or if WPB gets the eye and Wellington gets Category 4 or 3. It's too far away still and unknown. What we know is all of Florida can possibly get close to Hurricane force winds anywhere from 75 MPH to Category 5. You thought in 2017 we'd know for sure right? Hey, getting closer. Hey we know it's coming; that's more than most people knew in 1926 when a Category 4 Hurricane came into South Florida moving WNW. SLAMMED IN... few had real warning or an understanding of what a hurricane was... so we at least we know that. We can watch it on our phones travel across the Caribbean. We can watch the radar in San Juan. We have warning to prepare, to board up or to hit the road. The NHC is doing the best it can really. So am I and many of my friends who blog, post and own websites. We are all trying to educate, warn and make you feel you understand what is going on better. For many who have been through a life altering hurricane they feel the need to know details. Knowledge is power. I hope I have given you some extra knowledge tonight and tomorrow I'll write more on models that came in over night and the new track with it's new cone and I'll give you more my thoughts on what I really think is most likely to happen. Different possibilities and hopefully some ideas that are helpful to get you though the storm safely.

Take care... Sweet Tropical Dreams, BobbiStorm... or really good morning if you read this before I wake up and post again. Some images of Irma in the Islands below and Florida getting closer every day.

What an eye..

Irma hovering just ENE of PR.

Moving WNW at 16 MPH.

As close as it gets.

Close up of that graphic.

The area North of Miami

From WPB to the Cape..

Most likely to get the eye.

That can and will change.

This is still days out.

But as of today...

In the cross hairs of Irma.

Another link you can use that loops.
Shows Irma touching FL coast.
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/day0-7loop.html

I want to explain something.

It's confusing.

There are 2 "cones" put out by NHC.

Side by side.

One is TS winds. Other is CENTER of IRMA

For some reason this is confusing to people looking at graphics. I keep getting people asking me when the storm is coming as they see two different images. People keep saying different things. The NHC in their official cone tracks the EYE...the center of the storm. They tell you to look at the whole cone, however they show the forecast points. Monday at 2 PM they show Irma just off shore Savannah as of the 5 pm forecast package today. On the right that's the official cone. On the left is the TS winds earliest possible arrival of winds. That same area would be getting sustained Tropical Storm force winds by Sunday way in advance of the Hurricane Force winds. Trust me there is a difference. The reason they put out this product on the left is to tell you the time when you should be totally hunkered down safely inside not venturing out for one last run out in search of donuts and coffee. It's the time when you should be INSIDE and expecting Irma to begin. That doesn't include strong squalls that may have hurricane force gusts bringing down a tree on your patio or the neighbors pine tree snapping from a strong gust above 100 MPH. So keep that in mind That's your guide to be home, in a well boarded up house if you did not evacuate.

I have several kids in Miami staying in homes with shutters not in evacuation areas but in Broward County and I have several kids on the road North bound. Big family, multiple arrangements. It's going to be a hard time no matter how you cut it. Facing IRMA in South Florida or WPB or VERO BEACH will not be easy. Being in the Carolinas or North Florida being chased by Irma unable to return back to Miami due to severe damage and roads closed will not be pretty either. It's a decision each adult child has to make for themselves. Once years ago we went to my brothers, and two kids said they were staying at a friend nearby in a safe house with shutters. I forgot something important. My brother and I went back and there were several kids sitting with candles in my back family room and I threatened to call the police to make them leave. Being a single mother you often need back up. Police came... told them to listen to their mother. I kid you not and had to leave because there was a tornado down the block. Never easy being a parent. You got to do what you got to do. But, when you are a parent with grown kids they will do what they will do. And, you pray a lot...

IF Irma moves over Hispaniola in ANY WAY.. even staying North or NE of the coast it could in some small way disrupt it's circulation enough to knock it down. If not... only going to get bigger. With every eye wall replacement cycle it grows a bit in size, the eye gets bigger not smaller and then it hits the very warm, hot waters of the Bahamas. Approaching South Florida from ESE moving WNW. The winds could actually go down but the size (width) could grow making hurricane force winds go out further from the eye than they are now. We have to wait and see this happens or doesn't happen in real time.

After it begins to turn North after a forecast short wave erodes the High Pressure to the North and it becomes a problem for Georgia, South Carolina and North Carolina. Wind probabilities already go North into Richmond, Virginia. That could change, but it's been a pretty set track so far and so far Irma has been hitting it's forecast points so seems the NHC has a good handle on Irma. The updated advisory below gives information and shows it battering the Virgin Islands and moving on to Puerto Rico.

5 PM

18.7 N 64.1 W

WNW at 16 MPH

WINDS: 185 MPH....

Irma in all her glory.

Furious looking Cane.

Dangerous Hurricane

3 Hurricanes in the Atlantic.

Katia in GOM

Center Stage IRMA

Further East Jose

Another view.

Water Vapor Loop.

Wind Probabilities mentioned above.

Discussion below.

Please read explains the models.

Forecast wind speed over the next 120 Hours.

Models

You can see all the models show this.

They all curve it North.

This happens often.

I took enough classes in meteorology in college to tell you the answer you put on the test is that "hurricanes want to go poleward" and if you say "they go where they want to go" you better go into botany or geology cause you'll do better with rocks that don't move around as much as hurricanes. When it sees an opening it will take it. The ONLY thing that could change this scenario in any way is if a high pressure ridge builds in stronger than expected and the short wave trough expected to weaken the ridge doesn't show up for the party. Katia is way West of Irma moistening up the environment there. Jose is following along behind, sort of docile but a hurricane so at some point it has it's own day in the sun. For now I'm not going to talk about them beyond saying a summary.

Katia seems afraid of Irma and is forecast to go SW to the Pacific. Okay it was nice having you in the GOM seems some prayers were answered there. Jose seems to want to go where Irma has gone. Perhaps it will go out to sea or clip the Outer Banks. Too far out to sea for now but only adds to a sense of misery to continue pointing out we are knee deep into the Hurricane Season. In theory Jose will suffer being in Irma's wake and could wobble, bobble or make loops in the Atlantic. Its too far past the time frame and not important now. Other than to know... there are 3 hurricanes actively in the Atlantic. When the hurricane season gets busy... it rolls.