Hurricane Harbor: El Nino.. A Beautiful Mind. Hurricane Season 2015?

Why Why Why do I put on TWC in the morning? I don't like the VIEW or the CHEW so why would I want to watch the endless chit chat before my caffeine has kicked in. It's not my cup of tea... it's just not me. Sam is talking so quietly this morning I'm falling back to sleep.

Cantore comes up and starts waxing poetic on maple syrup. Some guy from Vermont, who looks like he comes from Vermont, is claiming they are a quarter of a season behind schedule. Another words... we are going to be short on this year's maple syrup production.

Maybe this is an out of body experience and I should go back to sleep?

Woodstock, VT has a high of 44 degrees at 4 PM. Why are there so many Woodstock towns. I wonder. Well, there is also Woonsocket. Google tells me that it may mean "thunder-mist" and that actually is really pretty. I'm going to have to try and conjure up what thunder-mist is next time I hear the name of that place. Now I'm picturing a rather large Indian Chief who smiles at you crookedly turning his head a bit named "THUNDER-MIST" with a few yellow feathers.

I digressed. Why am I here today? To write about the tropics this morning. There are no tropics this morning so let's talk about Drudge. Let's spread this BS around a little bit this morning.

You know why one of my two best friends is Sharon? Yeah, Sharon the one who laughed maniacally when she was on Hard Copy with me saying "El Nino's gone" looking like Jack Nicholson? That one... Because she's smart and funny, though she doesn't read between the lines as well as Nattie does. Her response on yesterday's Drudge headline (??) about Google working on a project to extend our lives to age 500. She said and I quote "as for living til 500 well that is only good if you are in good shape and don't get bored easily" and THAT is why we are friends. Witty response.

I quess that's what he meant the Space Odyssey movie... who knows.

Like HAL he's hard to understand.

So I picture Dave Schwartz & Jim Cantore trying to get back to the hurricane season from the never ending winter of 2015. "

"Hit the road Jack... (Jack being El Nino) and let's get on with a real Hurricane Season. You know the kind where Cantore hits the road to Miami, OBX and Nantucket and Dave stays in the studio tap dancing and doing his shtick.

"I'm sorry Dave I'm afraid I can't do that"

And, with those words HAL stole the Orange Bowl Queen. Hope my friend Fishing isn't sipping coffee when reading this morning's blog which they usually do in real time anyway.

Yes Virginia.... there is an El Nino forming. It's an odd El Nino though if you ask me and rather far south this year. Maybe it wants to see Ecuador like my brother Ronnie.

NOAA put this up on Twitter and other social media sites to understand it.

Hopefully not SNAPCHAT as it's a long read chart.

Reading between the lines here...

El Nino means NO NO NO BIG Hurricane Season.

(Maybe...)

It does ratchet up the weather events in the LA area

So...watch this excellent video if you aren't into flow charts.

As for me I agree with Discovery.

They call it "El Yawno" & so far I agree.

But really only time will tell.

I look at that poster and I wonder...

What was the 2001 Hurricane Season like?

Personally I think it needs a soundtrack like this:

Official map if maps are easier for you:

A strange mostly Caribbean & GOM year...

Odd late season storms out in the Atlantic.

I speak with, read and watch a lot of meteorologists. It's like 7 blind men and an elephant. Everyone focuses on one aspect to try and figure out what this coming hurricane season will be. Some watch sunspots, some MJO, some laugh at MJO, others watch El NINO... I watch patterns and I take them all into account. I'm not ready to give my prediction. I'm still in a wait and see mode... I'm waiting and then I'll see what I think and in a few months.. I'll tell you what I think.

Teaser:

Larry Cosgrove wrote about the upcoming hurricane season possibilities in his weekly emails this week. Interestingly he wrote what I have been thinking. I do believe the Gulf of Mexico will see an early season storm. Note some seasons will early storms do not pan out and become slow, not much to write about seasons. They are fast out the gate and then slip slowly away. Hard to say...