Love Potion #9 Forms in the BOC.. I mean TD 9 :) Is Hanna in the Wings? Eastbound ...for now...

Beautiful spin there tonight in the cradle of the BOC. NHC ups the Invest to Tropical Depression #9.

They said earlier today IF the convection maintained itself over the area of broad low pressure they would upgrade the system and they did keep their word.

It is forecast to move to the East across the Yucatan towards the Caribbean and Cuba. Where exactly it goes after that is still up for grabs. There is a lot of discussion about "if it makes it across the Yucatan" yet the Yucatan is not high land and most of the system will remain over water sucking in energy from the BOC and the GOM. So... it should make it across. It managed to spin today after looking weak earlier so would not count it out.

The track to the East in the short term may save Fantasy Fest in the Keys... or it will just connect with another area of disturbed weather and move back up to the NE towards South Florida. It's still too soon to tell. We should have better data later tonight and tomorrow as overnight models are analyzed and the first morning visible becomes available. For now we have the floater above...

Official discussion above. Basically a wait and see set up... note ECMF shows merging..

Not much of a pulse on Dvorak...

We'll have to check it's temperature tomorrow and see if #9 looks like it has a name.

There 9 is mixed into the trof... typical late October system.

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/loops/wxloop.cgi?wv_east_enhanced+6

(good loop but you have to navigate around to really enjoy it...)

NWS 7 Day Loop has the LOW riding or merging with the front..

IF Hanna is born tomorrow morning (we weather people wax poetic on new systems)

It has a rough road ahead...

Interests from Mexico to Caymen Islands should pay attention ...in short term..

Wind probabilities: 

MERIDA MX      34  X   3( 3)   5( 8)   2(10)   2(12)   X(12)   1(13)

COZUMEL MX     34  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   2( 4)  11(15)   2(17)   1(18)

COZUMEL MX     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

BELIZE         34  X   2( 2)   1( 3)   4( 7)   6(13)   1(14)   1(15)

PUERTO BARRIOS 34  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   2( 5)   X( 5)   1( 6)

GUANAJA        34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   5( 7)   3(10)   1(11)

CP SAN ANTONIO 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   2( 5)   1( 6)

ISLE OF PINES  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   3( 5)

GRAND CAYMAN   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   3( 6)

$$                                                                  

FORECASTER BROWN                                                    

Models:

The CONE.... 

I'll be back with more information in the morning...

oh... you may be reading this in the morning...

well check back ;)

It could reform or merge with other tropical entities and do a Nicole

(a little lesson in tropical history...)

Sweet Tropical Dreams