Winter Storm Likely for North Carolina & Mid-Atlantic

The excellent graphic above has been posted on Facebook, if you live in an area that might be affected check them out and join their group. It is NOT A FORECAST but an explanation of what the models are currently showing and they will and do update it often.

https://www.facebook.com/photo.phpfbid=407377596011464&set=
a.397925940289963.91828.100002176814981&type=1&theater

As I have said before I don't understand how no one can predict a snow storm three days out... all they say is it's an "evolving situation" and they use lots of terms like "P



It's cold out there tonight... below freezing. And, the wind chill makes it seem like it's in the twenties, but it's not. But, it is cold. Should another snow/ice event occur the ground is going to be significantly colder than it was last week.




NWS shows the forecast for Friday and Friday Night to be Icy Precipitation of some as yet undetermined form.

• 
  Friday Snow and sleet likely before 2pm, then snow and freezing rain likely. Cloudy, with a high near 32. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New precipitation amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible.
• Friday NightSnow and freezing rain likely before midnight. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 26. Chance of precipitation is 60%.
• 
  

P Type Issues or P Type Transition phrases are much like when we say a Hurricane will learn towards the right of the track rather than saying.."there should be more of an Easterly component in the track"

And, if the air is going to be at or near freezing... why would be talking about everything from rain to snow. Alas... I don't really understand all the nuances of why it snows sometimes...and other times it doesn't.  With the ground temperature and the air temperature so cold... I'd think it would be snow. But, am hearing whispers of ICE and that dreaded word "wintery mix" which means I'm screwed out of a real "snow storm" ...

Then there is a discussion of the Miller A Type Storms vs the Miller B Type Storms. I'm wondering if they give classes somewhere in local NC Weather?



VS



Check them out...great discussion there:

http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/1415-miller-a-vs-miller-b/

As for the official forecast this evening from the NWS Raleigh:
Any questions I have will be in Hot Pink.

TEMPERATURES WILL DROP
ABRUPTLY AFTER SUNSET WITH STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING EXPECTED AS
THE ARCTIC HIGH BUILDS DIRECTLY OVERHEAD. SUB-FREEZING LOWS WELL
INTO THE LOWER TO MID 20S. This is for Thursday Night... cold, very cold.

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT:
A VERY COMPLEX SYNOPTIC PATTERNS FORECAST BY THE MODELS AS
SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPS INVOF THE LOWER MS VALLEY SPINS UP IN
RESPONSE TO DIGGING PACIFIC NW ENERGY INTO THE CENTRAL US...LEADING
TO AN EXPANDING SHIELD OF PRECIP UPSTREAM. THIS SECONDARY LOW WILL
LIE ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE PRIMARY NORTHERN STREAM LOW AND
COLD FRONT OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES REGION. THE WAVY
FRONTAL ZONE IS THEN FORECAST TO PROGRESS EAST THROUGH THE
MID-ATLANTIC REGION...CONSOLIDATING/MERGING ALONG THE WAY BEFORE A
CENTRALIZED LOW EMERGES OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. "Ask again later"

THE SUBFREEZING ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS AHEAD OF THE LOW/FRONT
APPROACH FAVORS NARROW CORRIDORS OF FREEZING AND FROZEN PRECIPITATION
ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA. MOISTURE IS ACTUALLY FAIRLY SHALLOW WITH WARM
ADVECTION PROCESSES(SHOWERY LIKE) DRIVING THE PRECIP WITH DYNAMIC
FORCING/LIFT WEAK TO NEGLIGIBLE COMPARED TO LAST WEEKS STORM SYSTEM.
BUT THERE HAS DEFINITELY BEEN A MODEL TREND TO MUCH COLDER THERMAL
PROFILES(ESPECIALLY IN BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES)ACROSS THE ENTIRE
CWA WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS AS PRECIP MOVES
IN...LOCKING IN THE SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES OVER THE FAVORED
PIEDMONT DAMMING REGION AND POSSIBLY TO EVEN NEAR FREEZING AS FAR
EAST AS THE SANDHILLS/I95 CORRIDOR. WHILE TIMING/AMOUNTS ARE STILL
SOMEWHAT UNCLEAR BASED ON THE LARGE SOLUTION SPREAD....THE ANOMALOUS
ANTECEDENT ARCTIC AIRMASS IN PLACE WILL RESULT IN THE INTRODUCTION
OF BOTH FROZEN AND FREEZING PRECIP WITH MORE IN THE WAY OF FROZEN
PRECIP IN THE WESTERN/CENTRAL PIEDMONT(HEART OF THE DAMMING REGION...
TRENDING TO A VERY COLD RAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST(ALTHOUGH IT COULD
BE A MIX AT THE ONSET). SOMEWHERE IN BETWEEN WILL POTENTIALLY
LIE A NARROW CORRIDOR OF FREEZING RAIN OR SNOW/SLEET/FREEZING RAIN
MIX (DUE TO LIMITED SATURATION ALOFT)

Something about Damn Southern Solution? Okay, being silly...they are 

worried it get as far south as I95 and even past that..but they aren't 

sure and I'm not sure what the difference is between "frozen precipt 

and freezing precipt but I think this is where the worry on ICE is 

vs plain ole snow. Not that snow is ever "plain" to a Miami girl.

.... like everything in life it's all a matter of timing and location.

EVERYONE IS ADVISED TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECAST AND POTENTIAL
WATCHES AND WARNINGS OR ADVISORIES THAT WILL LIKELY FOLLOW IN THE
NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS AS THIS COMPLEX EVENT UNFOLDS.

"Complex" indeed....

Basically what they are saying is...we think we might have to post a Winter Storm Watch.

So far we are at 60 percent chances for some sort of Ice/Snow/Sleet Mix on Friday.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Freezing_rain

vs

http://encyclopedia2.thefreedictionary.com/frozen+precipitation

Note that the cloud looks like North Carolina ;)

This is  obviously my homework for tonight :)

http://www.erh.noaa.gov/rnk/Newsletter/Fall_2008/mixed_precip/Mixed_precip.html

Obviously I want snow... or ice... I don't really care as long as it's frozen and it transforms my landscape into a winter wonderland. I will say I have never seen an Ice Storm and I would love to see an Ice Storm and no I am not saying I want your White Pear Trees to splinter and fall on your house.. I just want to experience the weather... but not saying we will get an Ice Storm.. just saying we could get ice out of this... or maybe not. :)   Don't crucify me here... this is what I love and what I do and until you have seen something yourself you really don't know what it looks like to see the sun illuminating ice in the morning light... unless you want to live your life watching on TV or in the movies and I don't..   I also want to see the Northern Lights and Budapest...but I am digressing.

It's really cold out by the way...........colder than it's been all year and I am bundled up cozy within watching the news and listening to the Weather Radio (because I find it calming) and Googling various forecasts and models... and right now a Winter Storm Watch is as close as I get to a Tropical Storm Watch and ..............we really need to turn the heat down it's wayy tooo hot in this room. Then again it's about ten degrees cooler in the rest of the house...   

Keep watching... don't SHAKE the Magic 8 Ball.. it makes little bubbles and until the new model run comes out and Wake County decides to salt the roads we don't know for sure what is really happening :)

Besos Bobbi

Ps...Has someone played with the El Nino/La Nina settings because suddenly something changed ...