Winter Storm Likely for North Carolina & Mid-Atlantic
The excellent graphic above has been posted on Facebook, if you live in an area that might be affected check them out and join their group. It is NOT A FORECAST but an explanation of what the models are currently showing and they will and do update it often.
As I have said before I don't understand how no one can predict a snow storm three days out... all they say is it's an "evolving situation" and they use lots of terms like "P
It's cold out there tonight... below freezing. And, the wind chill makes it seem like it's in the twenties, but it's not. But, it is cold. Should another snow/ice event occur the ground is going to be significantly colder than it was last week.
NWS shows the forecast for Friday and Friday Night to be Icy Precipitation of some as yet undetermined form.
P Type Issues or P Type Transition phrases are much like when we say a Hurricane will learn towards the right of the track rather than saying.."there should be more of an Easterly component in the track"
And, if the air is going to be at or near freezing... why would be talking about everything from rain to snow. Alas... I don't really understand all the nuances of why it snows sometimes...and other times it doesn't. With the ground temperature and the air temperature so cold... I'd think it would be snow. But, am hearing whispers of ICE and that dreaded word "wintery mix" which means I'm screwed out of a real "snow storm" ...
Then there is a discussion of the Miller A Type Storms vs the Miller B Type Storms. I'm wondering if they give classes somewhere in local NC Weather?
Check them out...great discussion there:
As for the official forecast this evening from the NWS Raleigh:
Any questions I have will be in Hot Pink.
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP ABRUPTLY AFTER SUNSET WITH STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING EXPECTED AS THE ARCTIC HIGH BUILDS DIRECTLY OVERHEAD. SUB-FREEZING LOWS WELL INTO THE LOWER TO MID 20S. This is for Thursday Night... cold, very cold. FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT: A VERY COMPLEX SYNOPTIC PATTERNS FORECAST BY THE MODELS AS SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPS INVOF THE LOWER MS VALLEY SPINS UP IN RESPONSE TO DIGGING PACIFIC NW ENERGY INTO THE CENTRAL US...LEADING TO AN EXPANDING SHIELD OF PRECIP UPSTREAM. THIS SECONDARY LOW WILL LIE ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE PRIMARY NORTHERN STREAM LOW AND COLD FRONT OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES REGION. THE WAVY FRONTAL ZONE IS THEN FORECAST TO PROGRESS EAST THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION...CONSOLIDATING/MERGING ALONG THE WAY BEFORE A CENTRALIZED LOW EMERGES OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. "Ask again later" THE SUBFREEZING ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS AHEAD OF THE LOW/FRONT APPROACH FAVORS NARROW CORRIDORS OF FREEZING AND FROZEN PRECIPITATION ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA. MOISTURE IS ACTUALLY FAIRLY SHALLOW WITH WARM ADVECTION PROCESSES(SHOWERY LIKE) DRIVING THE PRECIP WITH DYNAMIC FORCING/LIFT WEAK TO NEGLIGIBLE COMPARED TO LAST WEEKS STORM SYSTEM. BUT THERE HAS DEFINITELY BEEN A MODEL TREND TO MUCH COLDER THERMAL PROFILES(ESPECIALLY IN BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES)ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS AS PRECIP MOVES IN...LOCKING IN THE SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES OVER THE FAVORED PIEDMONT DAMMING REGION AND POSSIBLY TO EVEN NEAR FREEZING AS FAR EAST AS THE SANDHILLS/I95 CORRIDOR. WHILE TIMING/AMOUNTS ARE STILL SOMEWHAT UNCLEAR BASED ON THE LARGE SOLUTION SPREAD....THE ANOMALOUS ANTECEDENT ARCTIC AIRMASS IN PLACE WILL RESULT IN THE INTRODUCTION OF BOTH FROZEN AND FREEZING PRECIP WITH MORE IN THE WAY OF FROZEN PRECIP IN THE WESTERN/CENTRAL PIEDMONT(HEART OF THE DAMMING REGION... TRENDING TO A VERY COLD RAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST(ALTHOUGH IT COULD BE A MIX AT THE ONSET). SOMEWHERE IN BETWEEN WILL POTENTIALLY LIE A NARROW CORRIDOR OF FREEZING RAIN OR SNOW/SLEET/FREEZING RAIN MIX (DUE TO LIMITED SATURATION ALOFT)
Something about Damn Southern Solution? Okay, being silly...they are
worried it get as far south as I95 and even past that..but they aren't
sure and I'm not sure what the difference is between "frozen precipt
and freezing precipt but I think this is where the worry on ICE is
vs plain ole snow. Not that snow is ever "plain" to a Miami girl.
.... like everything in life it's all a matter of timing and location.
EVERYONE IS ADVISED TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECAST AND POTENTIAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS OR ADVISORIES THAT WILL LIKELY FOLLOW IN THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS AS THIS COMPLEX EVENT UNFOLDS.
Basically what they are saying is...we think we might have to post a Winter Storm Watch.