Tropical Storm Debby Discussion
That's viewing it in an honest, holistic way and needed more often. Less defensive positioning as to why Debby didn't do this or that, etc. They are dealing with what "is" and what will most likely happen.
There are two main scenarios here. The NHC, as usual, is going with the more conservative one that keeps Debby in the Gulf edging slowly towards the coast, refusing to leave the water until later in the week. By Saturday she might do the beach resorts... that's a hard forecast to buy but it's within the realm of possibility. The second scenario is that the GFS model ....which was ignored in earlier forecasts.........was right and the front is stronger than previously thought and she begins to move her sorry butt across the State of Florida taking her rain offshore in the formation zone of Alberto and Beryl and intensifies better over the warmer waters of the Gulf Stream. Not a totally unbelievable possibility as that has happened before and can and will happen again. And, the area is ripe for development so far this year. That forecast would also take a stronger storm up along the East Coast staying just off shore and coming near Cape Hatteras down the road. Note, newer projections show it staying further off shore but I have problems with that seeing the current synoptics over the South. Or I could see it lingering off the coast of Savannah and SC... my thought no one elses. I'm a realist when it comes to these storms, what is plausible and in sync with what is happening further up stream. Another possibility is it moves into South Georgia with flooding rain ... etc, etc.
So... watch the various loops to see any movement or indication that the GFS is and was right.
Either way, stay safe. Many people are without power across a large area ...in small swaths where the damage from Twisters and strong cells created havoc last night. Because of how widespread an event this is..it will take longer to restore power and fix the infrastructure than if a small, category 1 storm had moved inland over Panama Beach.
I'd take a real Cat 1 Hurricane any day over a pissant, annoying Tropical Storm like Debby. The damage done from these sorts of dysfunctional storms is frustrating and costly... and there are no exciting moments of "wow for ten minutes I could hear the roar of the wind through the pine trees" or I watched as "rain flew sideways through the streets, each drop like a missile stinging me in the face and making me run for cover" No, wild moments of watching a hurricane move across the land... no storms like this go on and on and on, like a bad toothache as the water rises, flooding occurs, torrential rains plaque the area and things begin to go snap in the tropical night not so much from the strength of the wind as much as the length of time the wind blew, off and on and weakening from the torrents of rain.
It's like watching a ficus tree go over. They topple over in Miami from the wind, as much as from water logged soil unable to support the weird horizontal root system of the tree... and suddenly there are three humongous ficus trees down on a golf course that is flooded and looks like a lake. It's the rain, not the wind that really caused the problem. Yes, one big gust took it down...but only because of the foot of standing water on what used to be 6th Hole of what was once a beautifully manicured course.
Debby is that kind of pissant storm. Had Debby been moving she would have been a forgettable, footnote to this season. She is memorable because she is not moving. In the same way she stayed anchored South of Cuba and then in the Yucatan, she has anchored herself yet again.
Let's see if the "strong front" can budge her a bit and dislodge her...and then ...where will she drop anchor again I wonder. Hope it's off the coast of the Carolinas and not over the Carolinas because she can do major damage as an inland flood threat later on... when she finally makes her move.
Discussion worth reading below:
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF
THE FLORIDA GULF COAST TODAY.
STORM SURGE...THE COMBINATION OF A STORM SURGE AND THE TIDE WILL
CAUSE NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY RISING
WATERS. THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING DEPTHS ABOVE GROUND AT
THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...
APALACHEE BAY TO WACCASASSA BAY...4 TO 6 FT
FLORIDA WEST COAST SOUTH OF WACCASASSA BAY...2 TO 4 FT
ALABAMA-FLORDA BORDER EASTWARD TO APALACHEE BAY...2 TO 4 FT
SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA TO ALABAMA-FLORIDA BORDER...1 TO 3 FT
THE DEEPEST WATER WILL OCCUR ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST IN AREAS OF
ONSHORE FLOW. SURGE-RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE RELATIVE
TIMING OF THE SURGE AND THE TIDAL CYCLE...AND CAN VARY GREATLY OVER
SHORT DISTANCES. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE
SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE.
RAINFALL...DEBBY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF
10 TO 15 INCHES OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND
NORTHERN FLORIDA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 25 INCHES
POSSIBLE. SURROUNDING THIS AREA...TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO
10 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA
INTO COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15
INCHES POSSIBLE. GIVEN THE RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL AND WET SOIL
CONDITIONS...THESE ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS WILL EXACERBATE THE FLASH
FLOOD THREAT ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN FLORIDA AND SOUTHERN
TORNADOES...A FEW TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE TODAY ACROSS THE EASTERN
FLORIDA PANHANDLE...AS WELL AS WESTERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1000 AM CDT.