Donde Debby? 11 PM Discussion
Salient part of the Discussion written by Stacey Stewart who is one of the best:
All of the NHC model guidance...except for the GFS and GFS-ensemble models...indicate this blocking pattern across the central and eastern U.S. Should continue as fast-moving shortwave troughs pass well to the north of Debby. The result should be that the cyclone will move little during the next couple of days...and then only drift slowly northward after that as the ridge over the southeastern U.S. Gradually breaks down. Although the GFS model has been very consistent with a fast northeastward motion across North Florida the past few days...the large sprawling nature of the cyclone and the blocking ridge to the north would suggest that the GFS model may be lifting out Debby too quickly. The official forecast track is similar to but slightly left of the previous advisory track...mainly due to the more westward initial position.
The big red circle that is now the cone, looks like more like a scoop of Dark Cherry Ice Cream on top of a missing cone.
Bryan is not happy.......he wants to know where they found those winds... so do I.
The trouble with Tropical Storms is...they are not Hurricanes. As bad as Hurricanes are they are easier to track, to predict and to prepare for... they are ORGANIZED. Tropical Storms like this are a different bird, sort of like an Ostrich is a bird but not like the bluebird on your bird feeder. Yes, they both have feathers, otherwise that's about.
To the untrained eye... someone would have problems finding Debby on this satellite loop.
Sometimes we rely on Dvorak, other times we don't.
Again, where is Debby?
According to this image... a good part of the Southeast can go outside and look up at the sky and see the far, distant out flow from Debby.
I've received emails asking me what that thing is forming down by the Yucatan.
Can we please retire the name Debby?
People have died. Several people. Homes have been destroyed. Bridges and roads are out.
Power is out.
And, unless the GFS is right.... Debby will continue to cause misery to everyone from trackers to tourists, forecasters to emergency management to the average Joe in Port St. Joe who has been taking the brunt of this lopsided, now you see me ...now you don't tropical storm.
Sweet Tropical Dreams..