The Saga of Maria. Falling Apart or Coming Together ?

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM MARIA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 8A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142011
200 PM AST THU SEP 08 2011

...MARIA NOT WELL ORGANIZED AT THIS TIME...

SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION

The saga of Maria is beginning to sound a lot like a soap opera. The problem is if she doesn't fall apart she could be a big possible threat to South Florida and/or the Carolinas.

Loop the loop and you can see the naked swirl that is Maria moving west bound with convection blowing up but not specifically wrapping around the center.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t3/flash-vis.html

Some models intensify Maria in the Bahamas:

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2.cgi?time=2011090812-maria14l&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

The GFS model intensifies both Maria and Nate in a few days:

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.cgi?time=2011090812&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

I suppose the real question is how "together" is Maria and can she hang in there long enough past the blast of shear she is fighting as Katia moves out of the picture? If so she's something to watch.

Nate may be stronger than he looks. He may be small, but size does not count here he may be stronger than he looks. Recon has found stronger winds in Nate than they were expecting to find.

Katia is finally moving away.

What I find surprising is that despite Maria's poor satellite presentations that the models really like her, they really, really like her and they show her as a strong hurricane later in the forecast period. Most do anyway...

Stay tuned and see what the NHC do with Maria at 5pm.

Up north, the floods go on and on and on... as the flood waters keep rising in Binghamton and evacuation orders given to 150,000 people in Pennsylvania.

http://www.clevelandleader.com/node/17465

The pattern may change as what appears to be a stronger Arctic looking cold front moves south pushing the somewhat stagnant pattern we have had away and ushering in a cool blast of Autumn Air into the mix.

Speaking of Autumn and Winter, La Nina is back... more on that later.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring
/enso_advisory/ensodisc.html

Maria and Nate are more pressing problems to ponder...



Easy to kill Maria off at 5, but if they do will she stay dead or come back to haunt us?

Besos Bobbi