Tropical Tango

Two Tropical Storms are doing a tropical tango and giving forecasters tropical troubles as they try to interpret models that show diverse solutions for the future tracks of these two storms.

Katia is looking better this evening, though far from a sure thing as to if and when she will be upgraded back to a Hurricane. Some models have recently kept her as a tropical storm while other models intensify her to a major hurricane. Flip flops are still in style it seems even though we are already into meteorological fall and getting closer to the heart of the hurricane season.

You see... first we have Katia approaching from the East, getting closer and closer to our side of the world. They say she is going NW but she looks like she is going WNW to me. Each model runs gets further west. This morning she was going to curve north into the Atlantic far from the North Carolina coastline. Tonight the European model has her just off shore... Hmnnn.

Why?

One reason could be that Lee, another tropical storm that is slowly drawing circles just offshore of Louisiana and Mississippi, is predicted to move s l o w l y into the Deep South and possibly become a cut off low. Or, she will grab the the cold front ride out of town and take Katia with her. The same front that could pick up Lee could take Katia out to sea. The same cold front that does not grab Lee might not grab Katia.

And, in between the two is a swirling, dancing, deepening upper level low that is swirling about creating wind shear and keeping Katia in check. That's good, but it's also bad because a weak Katia is more prone to more more west than north and hurt her chances of a free ride out of town.

Complicated mess we've got going on in the tropics tonight when it comes to forecasting.

Meanwhile, to complicate matters Lee still has multiple centers and only one of them is just south of making landfall meandering about in the Gulf while tons and tons of tropical moisture are being pumped up towards New Orleans and Bay St. Louis, Gulf Shores and Pensacola. As a matter of fact there is MORE moisture in the Eastern Gulf of Mexico.

Again look at the picture above, all the deep color in the Gulf is not the center of Lee but the rest of him that is yet to be pulled up into the SE.

He's a messed up tropical storm and there is nothing simple about forecasting his future. You might do better investing in futures financially than trying to write a future forecast for Lee.



There is even a thought that the multiple centers of Lee are doing a Fujiwara dance around each other and that is what the models are trying to imply. Your guess is as good as mine, but Lee will be The Weather Channel's Labor Day Weekend Rating Telethon.

Later in the week they may hit the ratings sweepstakes with Katia threatening to make a US Landfall.

So, sit back and watch the show unfold. Because until Lee decides what Lee is going to do we may not know for sure what Katia is going to do.



They might just merge together, join their moisture and be a bigger flooding event than Irene was in the Northeast. Or they may not.

Now you see why weather is so interesting?

Have a nice weekend, if you don't live along the towns receiving torrential rains in the South from Lee then get out there and spend some money and enhance the economy a little with your one last dance with summer.

Sweet Tropical Dreams
Bobbi

WV Loop for both storms:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/flash-wv.html

Mambo #5 for your looping pleasure:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cPrOC2LcO9I