Tropical Depression 13 ... Questions with no answers & Katia moves West...

There are more questions about Tropical Depression 13 that formed tonight in the Gulf of Mexico than there are possible centers. In Bobbi Language.. it's a big, messy area of multiple centers of convection all vying for the role of main center of circulation. The NHC went with one, the most prominent earlier but now a center further to the south and another area are looking stronger. Why they insisted on naming it tonight rather than tomorrow morning I don't know. Maybe they felt the need to post warnings or watches up or for people to take it seriously going into a long, 3 day weekend.

The wind probabilities cover the entire Gulf of Mexico, Tampa is exempt.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIAPWSAT3+shtml/020239.shtml

Tallahassee to Brownsville.. seriously?

The models look like modern art:



What's the NHC to do?

The easy money is on 13 eventually making landfall somewhere around Louisiana but I wouldn't bet money on it. It's also forecast to sit and circle and reform and not move much for the next day or so.

They say the front is not going to pick up #13, not strong enough.

It also looks like the same front isn't going to be lifting Katia anytime soon. Notice she is curving to the left in the last part of the cone... not away from land but towards it.



Seems like there are more questions than answers tonight in the tropics.

Personally, had a really good vegetarian Indian dinner tonight. Watched the Miami Dolphins win a pre-season game on my computer and the other night the Red Sox won. Yay!! That's almost a home run by me...

Now, if forecasting Irene and #13 were only as easy as figuring out what to make for dinner...

Sweet Tropical Dreams... unless you are working at the NHC ;) in which case I'd take some Tagamet with your nightcap!!