Carib Gets a 10% While Models are Orgasmic Over CV Wave

Well, the NHC cried Uncle it seems and placed a small yellow circle over the wave I was talking about and gave it a slim 10% chance which might be upped to 20 later tonight.



I used this wave as an example of steering patterns and where I think the Cape Verde wave should be in a week's time ...give or take a few days.

Example would be this possible track for the new CV Wave..



This is the set up, this is the pattern and this is one courageous little wave to defy the odds and find a way to convect enough to get recognition from the NHC.

So far the models are orgasmic over the Cape Verde waves coming off. One had it hitting New York, one had it hitting the Carolinas and one has it just sort of cruising along coming in for a landing along the SE coast later next week. I'm really sorry but I am not buying a hit on NYC 11 days out. I had a chance to enjoy a Monday Night Football Game last night and enjoyed watching Mark Sanchez play. I fantasized he was playing for the fins and that is about as likely to happen as a model 11 or 15 days out.

What is most likely is that it might just make it... continue west ...wnw... possibly dip wsw and then pull north again (some possible Fujiwara dance step with the other wave) and then move vaguely towards the islands... possibly pulling north of them as a developed storm ... it would gain more latitude than the Caribbean Wave.

If the GFS Model has it's way it becomes Hurricane Danielle...

Where would she go?

Don't know...

She hasn't formed and today I am mostly watching the Carib and wondering what could and would change that could pull a hurricane north enough and what those models must be thinking or seeing... a cold front, a real cold front.

Only time will tell...

Course most of my kids are gathering in Miami for some vacation/reunion that should stretch from the Fountainblue to Orlando and back... they love to party, they love to party in Miami and except for Iowa Farm Boy (:P) they will mostly be there so Canes better stay away because I will never hear the end of it. August ..Miami... Andrew Weekend... ummmmm

But, maybe this is Hugo or Isabel forming off of Africa..

And maybe Danielle will form in the Carib, now wouldn't that be funny if the Cape Verde Wave was Earl not Danielle?

Keep watching...

In other weather events the remnants of TD5 came onshore again NOT as a named storm nor as a Tropical Depression... earth to TWC Give It Up...

And, historically speaking... today is the 41st anniversary of Camille coming onshore along the Gulf Coast... Camille was no remnant she was the real thing. Amazing day, filled with intense energy... Happy Bday to a friend who turned 41 beautiful years old today and chi meegwetch again...

Besos Bobbi
See life is like the tropics... you set things in motion and you just never know how they will turn out :P