Lazy Sunday Morning - GFS Wishcasting or Is a Storm Brewing?

Okay, I should be packing but a good friend of mine named.. ummm Pete... once told me NEVER SAY SHOULD so... I could be packing... but I am not, not this morning. Want to get out before the monsoons begin...but nah...am sitting here reading the news and eating cherries, dark, delicious, sweet juicy cherries!



The GFS is still predicting a storm in the Caribbean this week and I know this because I woke up to the following email from my mildly crazy weather enthusiast brother:

"LOOK AT THE LATEST GFS MODELS........ SWEET!!!!! MAYBE A CAT 1 WED OR THURS SLAMMING US FROM THE SOUTH!!!!! .......HAHAHAHAH!!!!!"

Yes...that was my brother's email, he it seems does not read my blog ... the one in Greece does.. anyways.. I am digressing here into sibling stories.

"LOOK AT THE LATEST GFS MODELS........ SWEET!!!!! MAYBE A CAT 1 WED OR THURS SLAMMING US FROM THE SOUTH!!!!! .......HAHAHAHAH!!!!! "

Okay, so he is perhaps a little more gung ho than the GFS even. Here is the GFS for you to actually see.. not exactly Andrew, Hugo or even King!!

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.cgi?time=2009060706&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

These are my thoughts on the GFS...personally.

First, until the ULL moves away a bit over South Florida that could be a problem.

Second, winds across the SW Carib are brisk to put it nicely and whether an El Nino is forming or not... could be to blame here but think the deep SW Carib is not where we should be.. could be looking.

Third, watch the loops and wait for it to get closer to Cuba... sort of sit down there, how long it sits may be the key to formation.

Fourth, why am I typing it instead of just saying 4 ..have not have cafecito this morning I should be sipping coffee and not popping cherries!!

5th... I think it will begin to form around Cuba and as it enters the Florida Straits sort of pull together and then possibly form closer to the Bahamas and take off like a bat in hell or a lazy owl possibly. (Is there a law about hitting an owl in Virginia, btw... cause the owl did not make it...)

So.... personally I think that until it gets closer to Cuba it is much ado about nothing but who am I to throw rocks at the NHC who still has it's chances it Peter Yellow down in the SW Carib at 30% or less. Show me some orange guys and then we will talk.

Interesting story on Drudge this morning... heard it as I was falling asleep last night on the news or...trying to fall asleep last night. Snow on weather maps. Almost 60 years ago... so I wonder... what was that season like??

http://www.kxmc.com/News/386720.asp

When I read a story like that.. snow almost 60 years ago this is the first place my mind goes...

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlantic/1950/track.gif


Here's a good loop for you... animation of the image.

http://www.intellicast.com/Storm/Hurricane/CaribbeanSatellite.aspx?animate=true

soupy down there... really hot, moist, wet and soupy... but the winds are too strong and until the there is some coalescing down south of Cuba and the Upper Level Low pulls slowly away it will be hard for anything to form.

Wondering personally if it begins to form, is hampered by the island of Cuba... waddles around like a wet duck in the Florida Straits and sort of forms off the coast of Miami and pulls out of here through the Bahamas to become Ana.

But... maybe I am just shooting the breeze on a lazy Sunday morning when I would rather be at the beach than packing and going through everything I own???

Since I am walking down memory lane here ...here is a great loop from the old HIRES!
Nothing shows color better than this... gee, would be funny if that ULL worked it's way down to the surface off the coast of South Florida... just call me breezy!

Got to love a guy who can dance and keep his hat on ;) chic chic kaboom ;)



Would the INTELLICAST lie??? nah... (stop smiling) it's TRUE..something might be going on down there.. there you have it.. the Intellicast tells the truth.. unlike some people we know ;)

http://www.intellicast.com/Global/Satellite/Infrared.aspx?location=DRXX0009&animate=true

Love ya all, got to get out of here... while the sun's out and the surf's up and I am still in Miami ;)

More later on Ana and Pete and post mortem on the Owl...that went moooooo lol.