Tropical Storm Fay Moving More Northerly Towards Upper Keys & S Florida

This is a case of watch the radar imagery and forget the models. It's pouring at my house, dark skies, thunder, heavy rain.

This storm has been moving north since it made landfall last night. NNW or NNE it's moving in a northerly direction and it is most likely going to intensify over the Straits.

The convection is the NE of Fay and the center is harder to define to the west or sw of the ball of convection. The whole messy area is moving north towards the Florida Straits and it will not be doing that whole Tampa Bay scenario let alone NW Florida.

The water vapor imagery shows clearly that the winds in the Gulf nearing it now will carry it east or ene back out to the Ocean. Then what?

You can't always go by models. The GFS has it going out to sea and coming back and hitting the NE Florida coast from the east. Imagine they will take the model out of play til the next run. And, the NHC has been good with not overly going with the models..they have done a good job of blending the model imagery with what they see but they have been a little slow in going with the newer trajectory.

Hard to watch Mike Seidel on my sunrise beach where I always watch the sunrise in Key West and say that they should get it tonight and tomorrow. Ummmm no darling, we are getting it now, today..tonight and those waves are very gentle waves. If there is one thing I know it's the waves on the East side of Duval Street..SE... the island runs funny and those are very gentle waves. He's in the wrong spot.

So... that's it. The 11AM will show what is really happening and it should be very interesting.

The forecast points are way off and she is to the east of them.

The NHC did keep us with watches even though they moved the cone, now we have warnings.

Do not be surprised to see this as a Hurricane by landfall over the Upper Keys and moving towards the right not the left.

More later.. going out for a bit with Sharon :) and look around. If I can get out, raining heavy here now.



Cleo track! or rather Fay's Track...