Is Tropical Storm Fay ... The Return of Irene? And, Fay Looks to Be Making Landfall NOW Over Cuba

I believe Fay is making landfall here but there has been no confirmation from the NHC but my oh my what a burst of convection is exploding in Fay at Midnight.

But for now I want to take you back tonight on a trip down memory lane.
1999 when a storm named Irene walloped Miami with flooding rains and surprisingly strong winds.



The above models are not for Fay but for a storm named Irene in 1999.

The below models are for Fay.



Hmmmmnnnn (twilight zone music)

I have a real question here on this as the similarities are striking. A wave that developed after a while, the center was slow to develop before Cuba, the convection was always lopsided and seemed to be moving one way but the cords showed otherwise. It crossed Cuba and headed for a date with SW/West Florida and left Tampa at the altar and ran off towards the SE Coast. Though she did make landfall on the extreme South West coast she pretty much left Cantore and possibly Mike Seidel high and dry on the beach. Miami on the right hand was swamped with so much rain that areas flooded and people were caught unprepared getting slammed by the "weather mass" from a storm that the media hyped as a West Coast hit.

One of many discussions showing the problems with forecasting Irene's path from the past...

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/1999/dis/NAL1399.005.html

Yes, South Florida was warned we could get it but the emphasis was put on the West Coast track and Miami was told over and over that the ball of convection they see headed towards them was not the storm.

There is a problem with words, it is a word game. The storm is a big, moving mass of many types of weather with bands of rain, wind, squalls, twisters and often in Tropical Storms asymmetrical weather fields.

This is a typical pattern for October storms but a rare one for August as usually troughs are not that strong to lift a storm in the Carib so sharply and once there they keep going into the Gulf and aim their fury at Nola or Mobile. But, this summer we have had one front after another race down towards Florida and so it mimics an October pattern.

Now we have Fay who seems to have stalled or slowed much more than the 11 PM advisory would make you think and maybe, perhaps this is very temporary and she will move again. Ed Rappaport was on the local news giving Bill Read a night to rest before he does battle with the Press tomorrow. Ed said Fay was moving erratically and that there was no definitive proof that she had really slowed or was changing direction but ...they are watching.

The 11 Discussion left holes wide enough to kick field goals through the uprights of the Florida Straits.

To my eye and on many sats it would appear that Fay is making landfall over Cuba now. But, there has been no definitive word on that from the NHC. Perhaps at 2 AM.

Speaking of weird they changed the track at 8Pm which is very rare for them to do. Almost always they adjust position then and adjust the track at 5 or 11. Hmmmnn.

Around 7 pm I was pretty ready to let go of my theory for landfall around Key Largo or somewhere north of Islamorado to the 18 Mile Stretch with that idea of moving North over the Glades and then curving out to sea somewhere north of WPB. I mean, really ready to adjust my thinking. And, then weird things happened, she stopped or appeared to and the water vapor changed a lot and I realized that scenario is still in the cone and I just can't let go of it.

Maybe I am wrong but I just don't see the Dooms Day strike on Tampa and the flow in the Gulf is too strong out of the WSW to ENE that I cannot see her getting that far north. The ULL to her rear is filling in weakening the high that was pushing her west. Which is why she has stopped. The front is now pushing down and kicking out showers near Atlanta.

I see what I see and that's a similar path to Irene. Not because I am focused on Irene but because the comparisons are obvious.

And...remember this storms often bobble and jump off Cuba not where you expect to see them.. ie to the left or right. And, often it is then that the NHC re-adjusts the cords due to interaction with land. Which on some levels is true. That and we do not exactly fly flights from the Isle of Pines (Youth) to Havana and back so we wing it with radar imagery and satellite imagery.

So... perhaps Fay is more like Irene than she is Charley, Cleo or any other storm.

Some sort of Sisterhood of Tropical Sisters with Names from the Sixties??

My son called this afternoon from Orlando. He noticed the people around the campsite picking up garbage cans and moving things around and found out about the storm. I told him not to worry.. he'd be home in time around mid-day.

So.. I'm going to take a break, stare a while at loops, talk to some friends online and I'll be back later .. maybe.

I say Fay is making landfall now. And, I still say Fay makes landfall on the far right side of the current cone, similar track to Irene.

Time will tell.

But I say this is landfall or real close to it!