Sunday Night Tropical Update ala Bobbi - Invest 94

This is a late night post that I felt was important enough to write and yet I am not sure what I am going to say or should say except to give you a heads up and know it is there and it is doing pretty nice if I may say so.... in that it has pulled together in less than 12 hours and is no longer a messy wave like trough.




Compare the post from this morning to tonight's set up..

A different picture.

Hard to believe there isn't a lower level center rolling along there. Surface obs haven't picked it up yet it's below most the Obs and too far from the South American coast.

It's in the right pocket for development. Any further north and the shear would rip at it and any further south and friction with South America would hinder it.

It's become circular and maintaining convection. Planes will go in tomorrow *IF* necessary which is what they always say but can't imagine they won't go in.

Should be upgraded to Depression tomorrow at least.

I am not going to say stupid things here that are irresponsible or foolish like GULF COAST WATCH OUT or OH NO ANOTHER FAY!

This will be Gustav and it will have it's own set of priorities and parameters.

Do not fall into that trap of thinking that every new storm is the same as the last storm.

IF it looks this good tomorrow and IF there is a low level center and IF it is stacked properly I would think this could become a major hurricane down the road. A lot of IFs.. three to be exact but 3 would be the magic number. I rarely intensity forecast around here, track yes.. intensity no and I have not been 94's biggest fan but I'm seeing things to indicate we may have a real problem in a day or two.

Surface water temps are in the upper 80s... closer to 90 in some areas. Wind shear is going to lessen and it won't have interaction with land unless it pulls nw faster than it should as I would imagine it to go wnw soon.

Official track from NRL:



A lot depends on where they plot it and then run the new models. You know the drill.
I had a boyfriend who used to say that, marching band.. they knew the drill. Not my lingo, I was acting and writing and political science.

So... keep your eye on the south while hearing updates on Fay's flooding rains and the climbing death toll of storm related deaths which TWC put at 13 tonight.

95 is not dead yet and there is a wave over near Africa.

Models are all over the place so am not even going to go there except to say that the European was bringing it north up towards Florida. Others take it into the Gulf and others can't even find it.

They will find it tomorrow night.. unless the big bad wolf comes and blows it away.

Don't see any midnight wolves going to do that so... stay tuned, this one is developing and has Gustav written all over it.

NiteTNight... Bobbi