Updated 11 PM ISAIAS 105 MPH - Strong Cat 2 Hurricane Approaching Landfall. Will It Be Cat 3? NHC Forecasts a Major Cane! Wouldn't Bet Against It. Pressure Dropping.

Pressure dropping.
Winds rising.

Moving NE at 14 MPH

Satellite imagery shows...
...it's picking up speed.

Smells landfall....

Interactive cone.

Shows track line.

Compare and contrast tomorrow.

Pensacola Bay... 
or wobbles to the right.
or can it pull due North.

Mobile Bay gets lucky often.

Check out the imagery.

I do believe there "is" an eye.

It's spinning, watched it on various loops.

Looks stronger than 105

But NHC makes that call.

Will see what we see at daylight.

NHC discussion says..

Major Hurricane in 12 hours?
Think Isaias is in a rush...

I see an eye.

Do you see an eye?

In loops it spins too.

That tail goes all the way down...
...to the Yucatan!!

Looks like an eye to me!
Small...low down.

In motion.....
Red Hot below!

Imagery tonight is spectacular.
Banding... the eye.
CDO whoah.

Water vapor tells the story.

Dry air on the back side.

Isaias don't care.

It popped out a tail.

A real Hurricane Tail!

You can see the squeeze play.

From the West... from the East.

Isaias has a mission....

... impressive fighter!

Keep reading from earlier.

Read if you have the time...

...the post from this morning.

Watch out for what happens...

...after landfall!

Good song for Isaias.... good song.

****

Wow, who had that on their Bingo Card?

For the 5 PM

So let's take a minute here to apprecitate this accomplishment Isaias is achieving. This is a water vapor loop above. Blue & Hot Pink are moisture. It's surrounded on both sides by dry air. Squeezing in. Forcing it to move on the track the NHC has outlined in their advisories, consistently. And, yet despite the dry air, that it's mixing out and the shear that it's fighting off..... it's thriving. Okay, it may be a small window of opportunity over the next 24 hours, but a system that perserveres and thrives is one that needs to be reckoned with somewhere down the line. Easy to hope it falls apart before landfall, but I think it's gonna fall apart after landfall. Will it be at it's strongest at landfall? Time will tell. We will see.

In truth Meteorology is all about mathematics, when all is said and done. Don't get me wrong it's the Queen of Earth Science, but it's all about simple math and extremely complicated math. In the old days people didn't have computers or AI to do the math for us... (tho they can make mistakes)...it's also simple math.

Shear is a negative. Minus.
Dry air is a negative. Minus.
Hot water is a positive. Plus.

Sometimes hurricanes out perform the models and sometimes they do not live up to the models. On any given day a hurricane will do something that surprises all of us, though in the end we can understand how that happened and yet the models missed it. October storms often surprise. Synoptics shows it, and yet sometimes still there are surprises. Even in 2026 when we feel as if we can do almost anything as fast as AI helps us....  hurricanes can still surprise us. And, that is one reason we love to track them... especially in the Atlantic Basin. Wish I was chasing. Could really use to be at the beach now and feel the buzz like "breeze" that Hurricane Wind you only feel from a real Hurricane as waves whipped up wildly rush towards land, with sea foam and sand attacking you and yet you don't care because you are there. 

Cone at 5 PM

Getting closer.

Moving faster.

Stronger.

If we go by wind probabilities the area between Destin and Pensacola should be where we get landfall. Check back at 11 PM for changes. But currently there is no time to do anything but evacuate (roads are very congested as expected) and prepare your home if you are in the Cone. Up the way, watch it carefully. Many places in Georgia have Flood Watches as do Alabama, and yet many cities have not cancelled college games, or high school programs. Bit surprising but time will tell. Err on the side of caution, stay home unless you are a trained storm chaser or work for one of the large networks covering the hurricane.

Zoom in....it's got power.

Before the sun sets ...

Stunning picture of the eye.
While I expected her it be a Hurricane.
Did not expect it to be so pretty.

Models....from Tropical Tidbits

Develops fast before landfall.

then ...inland. 

May be doing that now.....

Then after landfall

No Mas as we say in Miami.

Well no more a hurricane.

But trouble deep inland.

Could it flirt with Cat 3?

Winds die down....

...the rains remain.

Maybe.... jury is not out yet.

Still deliberating......

Dvorak.... 

Tomorrow morning is the time...

...when it is expected to be 110 MPH.

Close to Cat 3

I show the DVORAK as it's....
....used by the NHC in forecasts.

Note discussion below.

Visible imagery before the sun sets....

Check those last frames out.

Power there in that storm.

I'll update later.

Just wanted to get this out now.

Stay tuned.

IF you did not read the earlier post today.

Please do as there's much that needed to be said.

Beware. Stay aware.

Take this seriously.

And again this is not just about the wind.

Mimic shows the water, the convection.

All those red, pink and fuscia colors...

...shows how much moisture it has...

..despite the nearby dry air.

That moisture beats forward... 

...it's not watching the wind speed.

It's got it's eye on the coast and ....

...will push deep inland.

Be back with updates later this evening.

BobbiStorm