Updated 8 PM Invest 92L & 93L Tagged. New Wave on Block Fresh off of Africa 20% Yellow...92L has 80% Red in the 7 Day. 60% in the 2 Day. N ATL Invest 40% ...But Hey It's Got an Invest ... NHC Pulls Plug on Old Lead Wave That Juiced Up the Path for Invest 92L

92L: 80% in days-60% in 2 days!

It's now the "old wave" 92L

New Wave off Africa 20% in 7 days!

Our Mid Atlantic cruiser is now orange

and it's been upgraded to 40% chances

(do it FAST it has a small window)

Are we busy enough?

???? 

Well with things to watch?

C name still waiting to be used.

Best signature so far today!

92L Are you going to be Cristobal

or???

such tropical drama.

This has always been my favorite Jimmy CD and I have a lot of them. It's a very Miami song, lots of hidden clues to Miami History and just Jimmy having fun. Gotta love someone who knows how to have fun. Don't steal the Orange Bowl Queen ;) Indeed........been a day in many ways so gonna take a long hot bath ....or shower.........or both!!  ;) Love this song, love the whole CD.

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The red, round ball with yellow around it ...
...up high in the middle of this image is 93L.

Who saw that coming you may ask?

I mentioned this area on Friday as possibly suspect.

Low chances but high enough NHC tagged it 93L

And to the bottom right of the image...

...way down low.

Is 92L in the wave train off Africa.

There's a new contestant leaving Africa today.

92L the Invest we have been waiting on...

Models are below for 92L

Starting with 92L the African Wave that is now Westbound in the Atlantic battling it's way through dry air and eventual shear down the road. These are early models, first set to be up and there will be more information later. I wanted to get this up so we can see where we are now, and look back tomorrow and compare what we were thinking on Tuesday. 92L is Westbound, rolling along and the sun has already set on it. 

93L is what we call in the Subtropics.

Yes they can get a name.

From Tropical Tidbits!

East bound and headed out to sea... 

Sometimes a system such as this can impact the general pattern out in the Atlantic. I'll talk on this tomorrow IF this is a possibility. People have spoken on a stagnant pattern and often Mother Nature thows a surprise at us ...especially in El Nino Years. So stay tuned.

The Mimic is so beautiful.

It's literally at times an Artist's Muse

93L could pass 92L Eastbound

So we'd have an Invest up above..

..and an Invest down below.

Tomorrow is Eclipse Day.

The double blue line is totality.

The Green line won't see much...

...but small part of the sun may hide.

Stay tuned!

Will update at 8 PM 
with new info

Thanks for being here.

Been a long day for me.

Lots off my mind at times.

Restless... I was born restless.

Yet in the hot Carolina Summer....

I take it easy and wait for FALL

Keep reading if you did not from the blog earlier.

Bonus song today.

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11 AM below

Using this graphic Eric Burris put up on X as it's easy to read, see and tells the story very well.  NHC basically pulling the plug on the lead wave. And, yet the lead wave was never really expected to develop, the lead wave provided a gas line of moisture that allowed the stronger, big wave behind it at 70% Red to get to Red status. Waves need a moist environment to develop, and they need warm water more on that later. With tons of SAL (Saharan Dust) in the atmosphere that can choke out a good wave, unless the wave before it has left a battery pack so to speak of moisture for the 2nd wave to get further to the West closer to warmer water and stay alive and in the race.

BayNews9 awesome page.

The road out ahead of our RED wave..

...has been juiced up by the old wave.

it's a constant process.

Think of this as a good blocker who is blocking for a great running back in Football. The Running Back becomes famous, rarely does the blocker though sometimes. The blocker doing his job, guarantees the RB can take off and pick up yardage and the coveted First Down. Also when there is SAL the same thing happens sometimes with early waves that try and plough though the SAL, give it up to the dust and coughing, sputter away into nowhere land. The wave behind it has more breathing room to make a run or the roses so to speak or a touchdown  (Landfall) so pay attention to the whole ballet of satellite imagery, don't just stare at the AOI now currently 70% Red. And, speaking of RED let's look at SAL maps showing where the Sahran Dust is currently.

The areas out ahead of our wave where the Red

...in punctuated by dark colors is where a wave busted thru.

Red below means SAL, says STOP!

SAL is the blocker in football.

Wider view shows the bigger story.

Main basic points to remember...

..remember today and every day.

Whenever we have a 70% chance of development..

..especially in El Nino year or in SAL season this is true.

SAL lightens usually in September.

That is why September is Prime Time in the tropics.

Well, one reason that ..more on water temps later.

Again Football

August is PreSeason
September is Prime Time.

So before rather than showing models that change on every run.. these facts need to be remembered.

1.  Nothing happens in a vacuum ...pay attention to the whole picture on satellite imagery.

2.  SAL is strong, though it has some lighter areas where waves went previously.

3.  Shear is there as well waiting for this wave that is taking it's time to become an Invest.

4.  Big waves take longer to pull together a coherent center.

5.  Without a coherent center models are stabs in the dark, trying hard to help guide us.

6.  Models offer suggestions and then they do it again later in the day.

7.  If a wave is dawdling it misses the time frame of the previous guidance models.

8.  If that happens the models begin to pull more to the South and get further West.

9.  IF the wave suddenly wraps fast* then next model runs may pull more to the North.

10. *Not easy to do battling shear and dry air and lower than perferred water temperatures.

11. Water in the MDR is still warming up and less warmth in the water slows development.

12. Take all models with a grain of sea salt and don't expect early models to totally verify. They do however show the general pattern, but they also evolve in real time. 

We are far from Prime Time in the tropics...

...and the water heats up more each day.

Why we worry this time of year "close in"

where the water is HOT!

Takes so many factors to get an actual named storm to develop, more so a real Hurricane and more so in an El Nino year ...especially one where the Canary Current that impacts that part of the Atlantic has been wonky.  So stay tuned, this is not a sprint, it's a marathon as a friend reminded me. It's also a bit of a hurdle race as the wave (if it becomes Cristobal) has to jump thru SAL, jump over shear and get to near where the water is warm and welcoming. Longer it takes to develop it gets further West, unless some huge cold front moves down fast allowing it to make a hard right to race off after it. Models below.

Mike showed this graphic this morning.

While showing all the models...

...AI etc - check out the look on his face :)

Like "oh that happened"

Could it go into the Islands?

Coulds are not off the table.

More likely over the top close by I think.

We will see soon nuff.

We are far from "there" yet.

Stay tuned.

Will have better info when NHC makes an Invest.

Will have better info when it's center is solid.

Add in Recon when it's time to fly in there.

IF NHC changes anything I'll update later today

Til then stay hydrated, have a good day.

Enjoy the music.... 

Be back later ...BobbiStorm

Love this song to dance to... 

...never gets old and always makes me dance.