Updated! New Yellow Circle by African Wave 10% & Yellow Circle Across Florida .... 20% Watching the Tropics Again. Colorful, Moist Wave Off Africa Can It Sprinkle Some Rain on the Islands??

 

10% Our moist, large African Wave mentioned below.

As for the 20% area by Florida.

Not to see yet but models.

Area down by the Yucatan...

...being overly stimulated by a nearby ULL

Heavy rains over Texas.

Dangerous rains over Texas.

Please keep reading if you did not.

Will talk on models tomorrow

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10 AM

And, just like that!

NHC wisely put up a yellow area.

This isn't it about a tropical wave or a area of disturbed weather that is already there... it is about the pattern, the possibilities and models tenaciously suggesting possibilities. I lean on the word "possibilities" as that is what this is and also as there are many moving parts to this particular yellow area we are far from knowing what the final solution may be and again that is because there are many moving parts. That sounds redundant but it's the truth.

And this is very Deja Vu of 2025 as the season began with many yellow areas of possibilities and models spun up various solutions. One group insisted it went North and then into NE Gulf, some implied it could pull more to the West (Texas always watches) and others said it could form once it got into the Georgia Bight between Jax and Myrtle Beach. Some took it into Perry (of course) and up into GA and the Carolinas. The actual X was moved around all around Florida. One of the joys of having an online blog it it's my own personal reference guide. So let's look back at what I showed about a year ago.

To be fair the NHC had a yellow circle up over many parts of the Gulf and Florida and models spit out endless possibilities and some took it left, some took it to the right and in actuality the final yellow X cruised around Florida and formed in the Georgia Bight. I talk on the Georgia Bight often, it's an important area for many reasons and especially relevant in the Hurricane Season as any area that cradles a storm while it's in formation stages protects it and helps spin something up as happens in the BOC often. But if a storm moves up that way or across Florida into that area the cradle of the Bight and the warmth of the Gulfstream can enhance both it's strength and moisture content.  

This year we also have a strong Upper Level Low that has been down to the South as well as dipping fronts like Dipping Dots Ice Cream, dipping down towards Florida as they fall apart over the Carolinas yet leave a weakness in the atmosphere that if giving the right MJO assist (and that is possible) it can get it's MOJO going. Can as in a possibility not a promise. A definitely maybe. If you know Dipping Dots are fun but it's not like slowly eating an ice cream cone ;) cute but not real....

Back to the present let's look at the area in the Water Vapor Loop, our magical crystal ball that sniffs out things you don't always see on the colorful IR.

There are 2 Upper Level Lows in play.

Down to the South of the frontal complex.

You see moisture down by the Yucatan.

There's your pretty color :)

Oh look a beautiful tropical wave by Africa.

This truly is a beautiful wave.

Too early, too soon but beauty is beauty.

Hopefully holds enough moisture to rain on the islands.

The very dry, thirsty islands could use a wave.

The reds and oranges by the Yucatan.

The ULL nearby is tickling it... amping up it's color.

An ULL to the far right of FL (check WV above)

Rain (red) by Texas where flooding is a concern.

Our yellow area is NOT a big concern right now.

20% and wisely placed where it is...

Close in where action happens in El Nino years.

Close up view of the moisture down by the Yuctan.

Again an ULL is playing with it.

7 Day rain forecast is below.

Let's say something tries to form here. Maybe.

Crosses over Florida at the narrow part.

Hits the warm waters in the Georgia Bight ;)

It could pull it together again there... 

then what? 

Carolinas need to watch....

Virginia always does when Carolinas watch.

And that is what we all are doing.

Well okay I'm going shopping.

No not for hurricane supplies :)

Getting out and about.

I have this urge to splurge :)

Let this set up simmer a bit.

We will see what really happens.

And something could.

Again.... oh look at that African Wave.

Ain't it pretty?

It's not Donna taking down a plane over CV.

It's not forming into anything scary.

But the islands could use rain.

The one behind it is thinking 

"well if you can do it I can too!!"

Just waves but a wave worth posting on.

Mid July....

...August ain't far away

Sweet Tropical Dreams,

BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on X

IYKYK

& ...u usually do....