Updated 8 PM Melissa Still Crawling Along 1 MPH FWD Speed..... Forecast to be 130 MPH in 120 Hours By the NHC... Major Hurricane One Day? Finally Bobbi Does Model Discussion. Models Gone Wild!!

 8 PM

Wrote this update while waiting....
...for the 8  PM.
Writing to get rid of a headache...
with the help of headache pain meds!

Enjoy...

I decided to show current models
We can do this again tomorrow 
and the day after...

Because Melissa be crawling at 1 MPH

Crawling rhymes with stalling.

So let's talk models, though remember they run new models and changes happens often ...while some are stubborn and disagree with recent trends.

The Canadian is not a preferred model, but it does get a vote. Shows it moving further West towards Nicaragua & Honduras and near the Yucatan, finallyit relents and feels the pull to turn NE and slides near Havana, through the Florida Straits just South of South Florida towards the Bahamas. That is a logical, historically favored track for a late October Cane. I am not happy with that track, but things change often this far out with a 50 MPH TS moving ONE MPH forward speed!

Interestingly it follows the 2025 game plan.
Rides up the coast ...off shore.
Kind of kisses OBX with a strong gradient.
.... maybe up the coast. 
Stops at 198 Hours.

Can't argue that as it's the track of 2025.

GFS disagrees (nodding...)
Pulls it sharply N towards Haiti
Port-au-Prince
Then horribly stalls it, grinds away there..
for a day or two or three :(

Seriously a horror movie.
Then ENE like it's on its way to Portugal.
So 2025!

Old Fashioned HWRF slides up 
between Jamaica & Haiti
Takes aim on E Cuba.

Note a few models do this....
...they are less favored but it's something.

The EURO
Big Daddy!
EURO is MEAN.

Takes a 923 MB Hurricane (oh my gosh...)

Into Jamica on October 29th.

After sitting and strengthening a long time...

...in the hot bathtub of the SW Carib 

Crosses E tip of Cuba and NE out to sea.
Up towards Newfoundland!

I do not like sharing models....

...but better to remind you it's one run.
And they change often in real time.
It's just a possible solution.

Like a suggestion....
Melissa doesn't always follow advice...

....let alone models.

Know there's a chance........

(as that line goes)

(makes me think of a yellow ducky)

Spaghetti Models

Mostly go to the right eventually.

Always that one model...

I'm back from Greensboro where we stayed at the legendary O Henry Hotel for a business conference my husband had there. I had tea.......in the lobby ;) Beautiful sunrise with the sun lighting up the fall foliage. A bowl of the most incredible grits ever!  I took a bath in a huge bathtub in a beautiful "Bath Suite" and it was similar to but not the same as the bathtub in Pretty Woman. Deep but not as wide. That was Beverly Hills, this is North Carolina. It was so deep, so awesome and there was a little yellow ducky cause that's nerdy and "in style" right now, it floated around staring at me so I put it back up on the wooden bath tray where in theory I could have read a book. Loved it. Also loved this area in part of the bathsuite with an area to put luggage down or maybe change a baby. I sat there cross legged looking at Melissa doing weird things in the middle of the night as she tried to consolidate her two centers and then of course less than 24 hours later they went their own away again. But, in the end we packed up. I said goodbye to the 3 room bathroom suite (really) and went downstairs to sip tea in the lobby and loop images of Melissa. Melissa will always make me remember Greensboro!

You can loop Melissa all day and think..."really a Major Hurricane" "923 MB no way" Maybe...

I know it's a huge disconnect to look at a messy, tilted Tropical Storm with only 50 MPH winds and talk on it being a monsterous hurricane someday. I'll show one graphic everyone is showing, so it's not exactly a secret.

Monday October 27th, 2025.
Ouch!
Looks like someone asked AI ....

.."make me an intense Victoria's Secrets Cane"

No words.

It's currently moving ....

....get ready for it ....

8 PM Advisory out!

"PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 1 MPH"

I'd pretty much call that a stall vs a crawl.

50 MPH.

Sobering, hard to imagine.

It barely moves and then whoosh it does.

Or whoosh then stops again over Haiti?

Could it stall again in the Atlantic later?

Who knows

Currently it's going 1 MPH

I am exhausted from my wonderful trip to Greensboro where I played in the bathtub ... you seriously

could go underwater. I know, more on the bathroom that had a tea kettle in it and teas, I guess in case you get thirsty while doing your make up? Anyway My M daughter used to do that in a big bathtub we had in an old Roaring 20s Mini Mansion in need of much work on Miami Beach where we rode out Hurricane Andrew. She'd go under water at age 4 or 5 and I'd scream out her name from the adjacent Master Bedroom and ask if she was okay. She wouldn't answer. I'd go in there nervously and sater at herand lying literally underwater holding her nose like a wannabe mermaid. By the way she does not want a hurricane now in Hollywood, Florida and she told  me to tell that hurricane to "chill, she's not in the mood now" and trust me she is not. Oh...okay...... ya... no, not really. Doesn't work that way but don't tell her.

So I have killed time while writing. The sun glints on the traffic going Eastbound back to Raleigh did my eyes in and I got a really bad headache, so once home had my husband make dinner and I took a real pain killer and Now I am just typing away here. But the 8 PM came out so gonna go listen to a few friends on YouTube and get an idea of what they think after writing this blog and where I am telling you what I think.

I think you cannot underestimate her. Could the models calling for Major Hurricane be wrong? Sure, why not? Probably not. Stay aware and prepared if you live in (hate typing this) South Florida, the Bahamas, Jamaica or have friends and family there.... Haiti and DR. Oh and poor Cuba.... Watch the Wind Probs at 11 PM and see what cities have been added in there.

Just the way the season was gonna end, I knew that. It had been way too quiet in the Carib and October is the wrong time for the Carib to come alive.

Tomorrow is another day. Scarlett said that, though I think she may have rephrased Shakespeare ;)

Sweet tropical dreams.........BobbiStorm

Ps look at Jimmy with all that hair :)

Keep reading if you didn't...

11 AM discussion still valid.

Except for newer models that went OMG wild.

11 AM

"oh..........."

Melissa..... such a beautiful name. So many questions. Slow movement creates a multiple array of options on the menu! It's far down in the SW Carib, yet to it's North and Northeast everyone is watching. Yucatan watching too, they won't look away until it's moving far off to the NE. We have had this rodeo before in late October and odd and often unexpected things happen with late October hurricanes. So, hard to insist that nothing is off the table other than the obvious. It is NOT going to Denver or Seattle.

Old Cone below

Compare and contrast with above current cone!

1. Bulk of Tropical Storm force winds are to the East of the Center. (quote from Discussion)

2. She is not properly aligned and model and models bicker over how aligned she may get. Some intensify her greatly in the long term, some not as much. How strong the steering currents will be is made more muddled an issue to the slow term "crawl" she is doing that is said to be WNW at 2 MPH. Much can happen between here and there, depending on how long she crawls, if she stalls and if she stalls how long does she stall? Adding in any long term stalling near or over land would be dangerous and most likely deadly as there are mountains on those beautiful islands and there are hills and ravines that lead to flash flooding.

3. Discussion is shown below. I do so love reading a discussion written by Forecaster Pappin!

120 Hours out forecast to be 120 MPH

NHC usually begins conservative.

IF this verifies...

Melissa will not go quietly into the night.

Melissa could rage!

Melissa could sting!!

There are places chasers could chase.

Then we have the very long game.

After the Islands....

Jamaica...

Cuba/Florida Straits?

Hispaniola

Florida Straits into the Bahamas?

Bahamas most likely either way.

There are "Mid Term" questions.

Short Term....she's crawling.

Long Term....there are some models.

Out to sea .....

Zipa-a-Dee-Doo-Dah....

...or does she slow down.

Will steering currents be carved into stone?

or

Will she crawl again, maybe stall somewhere???

And IF she slows, intensifies out of the Carib.....

...is there any chance she moves back towards land?

Cold front scenarios this time of year.

Cold front could grab her and run with her...

...inland somewhere before swining out to sea again?

Or does she finally go quietly out into the night?

East Coast old timers watching.

They remember stories on Hazel....

....they remember Sandy.

It's a NHC graphic....

Anywhere in those lines....

... Remember Melissa is rarely reasonable!

Key Messages.

Rainfall Graphics.

Many believe rainfall will be stronger.

Time will tell.

At 2 MPH forward speed... we have time.

I'm on the road part of the day today....

...back to Raleigh.

I'm in the Triad... "up the road"

More Fall Color.

Stunning North Carolina Fall...

I had a best friend who passed away a few years back, she and I talked on weather, obsessing all Hurricane Season long. We chased lines of thunderstorms in Miami that look like Armaggedon was happening; we stayed late at the beach before hurricanes or if a hurricane was cruising by and only going back to the house when it was time to hunker down; being single mothers we did have some childraising responsibilities. She would have been obsessing nonstop about Melissa far away in Miami. Some are obsessing there and others don't pay attention until Aunt Martha calls and screams "GET OUT YOU'RE IN THE CONE!!"

So what can I say about Melissa that has not been said. She is a math problem, a problem for forecasters. She has conditions that are favorable and conditions that are unfavorable. She looks good, then looks crappy and then looks good again. Charlie Brown waiting for Lucy to pull the football away at the last moment!

My mother always taught me never to turn your back on a tropical system if it's to your South and until it's far to your North. Good advice.

Will update later today when back in Raleigh.... 

Besos BobbiStorm

Sticking with this song....

..as she may go to many of these places