Late Nite Update on AOI Maybe Dexter in the Gulf This Week. 20% Yellow on Sunday Nite. Does Dex Do Nola or ????

 

20% yellow now in 7 Days.

Most definitive statement from NOAA

on their 5 day 

Thursday L and Friday inland.

We are on a Gulf Watch

Really waited to write this hoping there'd be some sort of update from NHC rather than repeating endlessly "it's at the tail end of a front over warm water, currently a 20% chance it "could" develop" the "could" is the NHC code word of the weekend. Not it might or has chances just a lukewarm "could" and the ever present "regardless" heavy rains will spread across Florida (by the way does that every day anyway) and development  in the Gulf... 

I feel like they took a long Fishing Weekend down to the Keys and they put up a "20%" yellow sign saying :we see it and we will deal with it Monday Morning". Not saying that's the attitude but it's a watch and wait set up. It's not a tropical wave traveling across the Atlantic with a noticeable spin and a history. It's one of these quasi "let's come together, right now" close in systems that we often call home grown and rarely does the NHC jump on them without consistent model support (especially the EURO which is why we even have a 20%) as they are difficult to forecast. 

When they can send a plane into something and drop a dropsondes down into it's core there's solid information to pass along. For now it's at the tail end of a cold front, one of many fronts, it's been a literal Macys Day Parade this Summer of fronts though they are not that cool but they do blessedly drop the humidity down a bit to doable Southern Summer day. It's not common to have a parade of fronts across the USA in July. Fronts always up the ante as well as the questions on timing. 

The ICON really, really likes it and wants to make it Dexter and take it on a Gulf trip westbound near the coastlines over hot water cruising along anywhere from St. Georges Island to Nola to landfall somewhere near either LA or Texas. I know, no one wants to say Texas is going to get more rainfall. I know.

Mitch did a good job showing this.

Check out his videos on YouTube.

Oddly the GFS is ignoring it mostly.

Maybe it's watched too many Ashton Forbes videos.

It tries to develop then disappears.

Cloaking device twist possibly.

Like "yo GFS u ain't doing Nola?"

Since when?

My thoughts.......

GFS Monday close to Tampa boom storms!

Drinks too much cafecito...

...runs off with a tango dancer to St George

GFS really really playing it coy

They break up after a night of...

...too much tequilla in Nola

GFS in love with the huge High.

It's too soon to say much more but if you watch the flow, the steering currents to the North and remember the High most likely shoves it West as in "get out of my neighbood I'm in charge here" and we have a short but significan't weather event somewhere from Alabama to Louisiana and we are wishcasting that Texas is out of the mix. Wishcasting is fun on a Sunday night but fades fast by the light of the first morning visible on Monday Mornind.

Know it's there. Know it could develop especially close in over hot water. Know it might be a difficult forecast for NHC to pin down landfall if it's going backwards sideways sliding along parallel to the coastline. I know, Mercury Retrograde I can hear someone screaming that into my brain.

Will discuss this more on Monday. A core is good. I love a good core. Better data in and better data out. Add in a few dropsodes (they are Sooo light I know as I've played with them... ) and see y'all in the morning where we start over again. It would be hard to see the NHC not up this beyond 20% as the time frame is this week, not in 10 to 15 days so we should know more in the next 24 hours.

If this develops........y'all will believe me when I say to watch out for the tail end of fronts ... right?

Sweet Tropical Dreams.

Thanks for coming to my harbor.

BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on X mostly weather

Elsewhere whatever

Love this song.

I had an old boyfriend who became one of my best friends for years. He told me once this was the most poignant song in the movie. I asked why he smiled down at me and said in his sarcastic way "reminded me of dating you .." rolling eyes........lol he was right it's a great song. I love watching the progression from little dark haired Eva to blonde, sleek Evita.  Ps I'm sure she remembered him well ...

This song is on one of my favorite CDs

What is Dexter really like?

I wonder.........

My bottom line.