Hurricane Harbor

A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!

Saturday, September 09, 2023

Hurricane Lee, Margot and Friends Out in the East and Central Atlantic. Lee Forecast to Move SLOW then FAST.

11 PM Cone, compare to 5 PM below.

Note it is forecast to move slowly.
Then move FAST!
Let's see how forward speed forecast verifies.

Lee center stage.
A very wet East Coast today.
Rained in Raleigh all day on and off.
Lee is forecast to make the turn.

Big question is where it goes a week from now.
Past this Cone.
Nothing written in stone.
Up into the Atlantic.
How close to NE does it get is the question.

NHC discussion at 5 PM made it clear there was great uncertainty as GFS and EURO were far aparrt on the end of their runs. You can see this at Tropical Tidbits, a great site for models and satellite imagery. I've spent a lot of time the last few weeks there using his floaters and water vapor loops.

A beautiful spinner.
Thankfully N of the Islands somewhat. 

Lee and Margot
And some friends.
The gang in the E ATL


So this is what I want to say tonight and it's just a comment. We are in an El Nino World and it's a world mitigated by warm water temperatures in the Middle of the Atlantic and because it's El Nino that's a very friendly place for storms to be. We have had waves sail into the Caribbean early that got a name, a bit of fame and then downgraded fast. One wave couldn't get spinning until it hit the warm, safer waters of the Eastern Pacific closer to El Nino. We had Don in the Atlantic for days... as well as Franklin and eventually Idalia got to the North Atlatnic too! The Bay of Campeache has been generally quiet, as has the Caribbean and the Gulf of Mexico. Our big GOM Hurricane Idalia, literally came from the EPAC and after crosing over formed and further to the North once past Cuba once out of the Caribbean.

An Atlantic weighted hurricane season... classically El Nino.

I don't know why everyone in today's world has to argue over something, be it politics, weather or whether Paleo is better than Mediterannean Diet. They both work if you stick to them. We've always argued over politics which is why people at a party would ask "so how do you like the weather" vs "how bout those Mets?  only to find out they are Yankee fans. Weather used to be the easy topic, obviously some like fair weather and others like storms, and some love snow more than others. But these days I see no reason to argue whether we are in El Nino or not. As I say often about hurricane seasons, no two are alike and when it comes to El Nino... no two El Ninos are the same exactly. 

As we move towards October it's more common to see something in the Caribbean, but for a busy year the Atlantic and North Atlantic is all the rage. Many short, brief barely there named storms and their lack of ACE (Accumulated Cyclone Energy) has been made up for it by the North Atlantic spinners that seemed to go on forever.

Almost always you could bet that a storm like this will shoot the gap between the Outer Banks and Bermuda and go up, up and away. But until I see the end game clearer, the all clear for New England and Canada is not there.

Have a great Sunday... I'll start over fresh in the morning. 

Sweet Tropical Dreams,
@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram

I know it's swimmers but always hear spinners in my mind.
One of his lesser known songs.
Norma Jean...


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