Hurricane Harbor

A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!

Thursday, July 20, 2023

Updated 95L Tagged by NHC for ATL Wave Now 30% Model Supports It Today. Heat Wave Owns the Weather News. Does Anyone Remember 1980? Really Deadly Horrific Hot Summer and Then... Came Hurricane Allen.

From Zoom Earth.... Invest 95L

From SpaghettiModels... 
Some high expectations from the models.

From Alan Snyder on Twitter.
Ensemble models.... 
..because everyone loves to see them.

One real caveat here is that this is far out, moving West slowly in a sea of SAL with some shear out there as well. In theory the odds would be stacked against it ......and yet......models show potential. The question is how far can it go before it's hit by stronger shear? And, then how good is the shear forecast in a period when there are some signals changing and as Don finally moves away up into the Northern Atlantic and the High rebuilds or sets up whichever way you look at it... it has a window of opportunity to be a Tropical Storm and even a Hurricane. BUT.... again....early model runs are early model runs. And models are best when we have a defined center. It does have spin and that's a start so tomorrow on Friday morning we will discuss it in more depth. 

But, keep in mind years such as 1980 when Hurricane Allen came to life the first week of August and became a Category 5 in an El Nino year helping to moderate a horrific heat wave across the USA. In 1992 Andrew in August moved towards Florida after a summer of intense, beastly heat and then we faced the beast from the East in an El Nino year. Stay aware and be prepared for Hurricane Season and stay hydrated, never go anywhere without water. List I use for El Nino years as there's constant discussion on what was or wasn't... using this list personally.

Keep reading if you have not done so.... a little Hurricane History never hurts!

* * * * *

Not going to say much on Don today.
Kind of clear cut.
Using a grid I made from Spaghetti Models.
Turn your attention to bottom right square.
While tropics are fairly quiet.
Mother Nature is not.
There's a huge heat wave going on.
Especially in the Deep South.
Deep SW.
There's time to talk on our Yellow X.
If it survives the SAL...
..we will talk on that much in days to come.

Remember the water is only getting hotter.
Every day.

And there's pockets of hot water along NE coast.

Currently in the Tropics.
Don and what should be Invest 95L
If models are right and NHC works on models.

Yellow X 20% over next 7 days.
As I said models are modeling....
In the tropics everyone watching THE Wave.
There's more waves behind it ....remember that!

Nufff said on that today.
Don is Don.
Yellow X has potential.
As always watch for surprises.
Stay prepared!
July is for preparation time.
August starts Prime Time!

These images  below are from Google.
Newspaper coverage of the 1980 HEAT WAVE
Capital letters because it was epic and deadly.

And of course there's a Tee Shirt.

Back then people got their news from Newspapers.
Once a day you read the News.
At 6 PM people watched the News on TV.
Fast foward to 2023 news is a nonstop parade.
We read it all day online.
We watch our phones.
Our WhatsApp explodes we know there's news.

Talking about the 1980 Heat Wave.
Because history repeats always...
..but with subtle differences.
But similar.
You know what usually breaks a heat wave?
Don't say "winter" wrong answer.
So read along please, thanks.

It's been bugging me for days off and on this summer the year that was stuck in my head as an Endless Summer on the News with nonstop media press talking about the extreme heat, dying crops, people sick and dying from the heat. Sick to the level as if a was meteorological plague of biblical proportions. Memories are connected to things that immedately impact you and this plague did not luckily, other than it owned the news waves. People died of heat related illnesses, crops failed and remember this was at a time with 43% of our country was without AC.  I can't really imagine as I'm always amazed that despite being in AC on a very hot day I feel drained and yet without AC such a heat wave is not just unbearable but deadly. So you can imagine how much worse this HOT SUMMER would be without AC with ceiling fans only blowing around the heat. 

"June-September 1980:

Beginning in June and stretching until mid-September, the 1980 US Heat Wave was a period of intense heat and drought that plagued the central and eastern United States. Many states suffered through record-breaking heat, with Memphis, TN experiencing a 15-day stretch of temperatures over 100°F. Crops were damaged in the heat and livestock stressed, and it is among the most devastating natural disasters in terms of deaths and destruction in U.S. history. —(NOAA)"

From Wikipedia below.

"The heat wave began in June when a strong high pressure ridge began to build in the central and southern United States allowing temperatures to soar to 90 °F (32 °C) almost every day from June to September. The high pressure system also acted as a cap on the atmosphere inhibiting the development of thunderstorm activity, leading to exceptionally severe drought conditions. The heat wave paused briefly when the decaying Hurricane Allen disrupted the prevailing weather pattern"

There are two bottom lines here shown below.

The 1st bottom line is below:

  • Estimated 10,000 direct and indirect heat-related fatalities
  • Approximately $20 billion in agricultural damage  (1980 USD) ($59 billion in 2017 USD)

The 2nd bottom line is below:

Hurricane Allen. 1980.
Helped to break the intensity of the Heat Wave.
It's either a Cold Front or a Heat Wave.
In early August usually a Hurricane.

Crazy years weather wise often bring multiple huge events and 1980 was one of those years. I remember standing in my front yard in Miami one day looking up at the sky and you could see the clouds from distant bands from the outflow around far away Hurricane Allen. At one point Hurricane Allen seemed to take up the whole, entire Gulf of Mexico. And, yes it broke the hottest, worst part of the heat wave but it was a long, hot summer and Hurricane Allen, the A storm didn't form until July 31st and didn't fall apart until August 11th, however after it fell apart the moisture, clouds and associated tropical rains rained over a huge part of the country that had suffered the historic, unrelentless heat wave.

This was not just a long tracker or a Major Hurricane for several days leaving a trail of death and destruction from the Islands to the Mainland US it was size wise a monster! The same way the Heat Wave was a monster meteorological disaster. And, that's why it's on that Homeland Security Page linked below. Check that out if you're bored and trying to not think about the Ukraine War or ongoing Political Events or the hot, heavy heat wave of 2023. Check and see if the disaster you remember as the worst, made their list. As always disasters are relative and related to the people who were most impacted!

Note the Mid-Level Circulation 
Once caught up in the air flow....
...moisture continues.

Hurricanes transport energy from the tropics... the poles.
And everything in the way of a Major Hurricane. way or another is impacted.

Think Ida causing flooding in NY PA CT...
..after a landfall on the Gulf of Mexico.


Really nuff said as many similar set ups have been busted by a hurricane and you can read about them online. Allen is just one that I remember along with the nonstop coverage of HEAT WAVE in TEXAS (Kansas or name a state ....) that owned the weather news while many in Florida were wondering when hurricanes season would finally begin and whether they needed to worry as to who would get the big one. Remember this was after the 1979 Hurricane Season that impacted the Unitied States, Cuba and the Caribbean in horrible ways. Florida dealt with David and Frederic after any early on time startin June people in 1980 worrying when hurricanes were going to start rolling their way.


Allen was the real deal.
Cat 5
The Main Story Hurricane wise.... 

1980 was a Weak El Nino.
These statitstics from NWS Tampa page.

El Ninos are mean.
They are sneaky.
They come on in odd ways.
They are there when you think they aren't.
They create horrific heat waves.
And years with one horrific hurricane often.

Cat 5 Heat Wave
Cat 5 Hurricane

Sometimes go hand in hand.
So don't say I didn't warn ya.
Prepare as if you will be impacted.
Stay Aware
Stay hydrated.

All heat waves die eventually.
Wondering on what comes next?
After Summer and Hurricane Season?
Stay tuned....
Always pay attention to the weather..
..but you know that if you follow my blog.

Sweet Tropical Dreams...
....with a nice balmy breeze.
Cold AC and cool drinks.

@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram
there on Threads too.

Ps From Google:

Note 1992 was beastly hot in S FL
Horrible, hot - little relief from tropical wavves.
History repeats in odd ways.
Remember that... always learn from history.


Song of the day from Summer 1980. 

Official video people were watching ...
...before MTV but on some rock channel on cable!


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