Invest 94L in Distant Atlantic ... Don Forming?? Watch for Surprises and IF That's Don........ Where's Emily??

 

Now at 50%

2023 Hurricane Season.

It has a heart beat out there....

....tho the Canadian signature steals my attention.

Not to mention NH & VT outlined above in orange/red.

IF Don forms from this Invest.

It moves out to sea going ...

track to the right not the left.

A storm that impacts shipping lanes.

Models from Windy.com

Euro above.

GFS below.

Even the Icon shows it.

Out in the Atlantic dancing around.

So what about the Deep Tropics.

Westbound Tropical Waves??

There's a tropical wave approaching the Islands... another one further to the South (see where the orange wavy line dips) that could suddenly do something briefly... then a series of tropical waves coming off of Africa. This is how the world works in July. Each wave roling Westbound off Africa juices up the atmosphere on in this case tries to take a bite out of the Saharan Dust (SAL) and eventually in August the environment is a bit better for one to actually ignite and go the distance or at least take a stab at it.

I'm not in love with this crop of African Waves.

They are there but a bit sparse and spread out.

This is from Content Weather.... from yesterday.

Cranky is no longer cranky and now Content.

Few have the grasp of weather flow as him.

He knows the flow...the lay of the atmosphere.

Historical context too... Climo.

Doesn't get lost in models...

..watches the synoptics... 

patterns.

flow.

Yes I can write a whole paragraph. I'll be honest with y'all as this seems to be the year of "transparency" according to my friend. I'm tired, restless and in a mood. Flooding in NY/VT/NH was really horrible and it's been bugging me for a while and haven't said it I'm worried on flooding from this year's hurricanes. Eventually we will have hurricanes, this is not 1997, they will come though for now it's very quiet in the atmosphere. 

Going away for a week or so .... going "home" for a bit and home is still Florida even though I have come to love the Carolinas. Moved up here about 14 years ago when I got remarried but the first several years I was in Miami as much as here, these days here more. And I love this place in the Fall the colors are incredible, the air feels fantastic. Carolinas really do the seasons better than any place I have previously lived in the Fall and Winter. Late summer even is wild when figs are in full crop, tobacco plants growing out in the country, corn ready to be picked or picked... cotton in the fields ready to be picked ... Fall is a real thing here. Summer is hot, very little wind and the air hangs there like a tangible entity that should get it's own name, oppressiely hot and I have things to do and people to see in Florida. 

And, there is nothing going on in the tropics, literally nothing officially going on. Models are dead and SAL is in full reign, it rules the Atlantic this July. Not Mother of All SALS but it's SAL Time in the Atlantic. 

2023 Hurricane Season is a question mark .... we have sugestions from the models but no real answers.

Arlene went South.... almost got to Cuba from the Northern Gulf of Mexico. Early waves made a run westbound on the Islands briefly getting named and they were fairly small systems. Now we may have Don going out towards the Azores in July. This doesn't happen though often it happens later in the year. 

Whatever, either way.............whatever way it takes we move closer to really Prime Time in the Hurricane Season after the dust does it's thing and after the waves do their thing. And, to be completely honest when the tropics are dead and waves aren't waving and forming into tropical cyclones you have to watch close in for things to spin up and surprise you in your own backyard. Honest. 

Both Euro & GFS show this tropical wave.

Close in over hot water.

So keep an eye on it.

Could something develop fast?

Maybe... doubtful, could.

But someone is gonna get a whole lot of rain.

Where exactly isn't sure currently.

Just remember it's there.

A surprise means it isn't seen on the radars...tho there is a moisture trail that infers something is moving about. Tropical Waves do not just go "poof" they fall apart, unwind lose their kink that makes them a wave and the moisture gets spread around into blobs of messy convection and sometimes one little blob sparks up and surprises someone somewhere and dumps a whole lot of rain on some island or Florida or the Bahamas and catches our attention in real time.  Happens.

So don't turn your backs on the tropics because it's July.

Don't ignore the forecast for "rain" because it's summer and well it always rains in the summer. Because we have potential today for a derecho ... and more rain up in New England and Upstate NY that could add a layer of misery to the madness created yesterday.

Never let your guard down in the Summer.

BUT..............go about life making memories, enjoying the summer because summer gives way to Fall and I do think it's possible we will have an ugly October hurricane this year and fronts will begin descending down and hurricanes and tropical storms will be trying to find a spot to make landfall and evade some cold front that wants to snatch them up and take them out to sea... like Don may do.

And if Don is forming...........Emily could be a problem in the tropics someone was not ready for because they decided nothing will happen til September and they'd be wrong, wrong, wrong.

Never stop watching tropical waves and features close in that can bite you in the back when you weren't looking!

Will update from another place later tonight or in the morning. 

Sweet Tropical Dreams.

Keep your weather alerts ON so you can hear them.

BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter Instagram and Threads. 

Ps Not proofing this today in a mood... have to finish packing. Get out on the road.