Hurricane Harbor

A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!

Monday, June 19, 2023

5 PM UPDATE TS BRET FORMS..........NHC Forecasts Hurricane Bret Down the Tropical Road.......................... Behind It Now 50% Orange - Are You a Believer Now? 2023 Hurricane Season is Here! Ready or Not.

Bret Caribbean bound as of 5 PM.
Still forecast to be a Hurricane.

Salient points ...

Some uncertainities in track and intensity.

Forecast to strengthen ....

More discussion to come later.
For now these are the basics!
Keep reading if you have not ..still relevant.

11 AM 

Nothing says upgrade better than a Cone.

TD3 to the left.........Invest 93L on the right......

Some main points to remember here is that this is the first advisory, so it's not exactly set in stone but gives an indication of where it may go and the advisory discussion mentions that the current movement is hard to be sure as we have just been able to actually track the developing center. Obviously everyone in the Islands, especially NE Carib Islands needs to watch this one and down the road VI and PR as well as Hispaniola IF it takes the lower track. IF it intensifies faster the way some models suggest Bahamas needs to pay attention. That's a bit early as it's still far out and remember this cone is SEVEN 7 days not FIVE and that's new this year and as always the  most reliable part is the first 3 days of the Cone especially in the first advisory. 

Never forget Invest 93L out there..
Kind of has designs on what will be Bret!
Go figure.
Tropical Romance Novel ala 2023...

Good graphics of the Ensemble models.
Mike from Spaghetti Models said this morning.
"Ensembles are everything"
Especially far out before it's developed a core.

So yes, this far away we are all in it.
If it doesn't become a Fish Storm and swim away.

Wind Probs out for a lot of places.
Will narrow it all down ...down the road.

Currently forecast to be an 80 MPH Cane... 72 hours!!

Photogenic TD this morning

Lastly you have to remember one thing.
TD3 is moving FAST
West at 21 MPH.

Sometimes when an early system, propelled by the high High to the North moves this fast it inhibits development some as it's moving so fast it's hard to wrap. I'm not saying that's going to happen, I'm just saying you should remember that. And, it's probably what the EURO keeps taking into consideration while the HWRF model dreams of glory as some Major Cane the reality is it's moving fast and usually the need to slow down some so the can wrap up nice and tight and intensity. Then again, fast might be good as Invest 93L is breathing down it's back and there's more waves behind 93L.

So let's see what it has under the hood so to speak and how it develops and if all goes as planned we will have the SECOND Tropical Storm Bret to form on the same day in history and while that sounds like history is repeating 2017 wasn't an El Nino year and this most likely will be a front loaded season as it takes a while for the shear in the Carib to be totally shut down the way it often is during an El Nino year.

Stay tuned... pace yourself, it's only June and Tornadoes are still ripping across the South as our seasons collide this year with Twisters and the Tropics being monitored and meteorologists and chasers have a year to remember.

I just want to add here on a personal level, it's impressive though not unprecendented as there was the June Bret in the same spot before, will history repeat or does it take that more track more to the right? Time will tell. You know, when I was younger and and this was all new we'd practically break out neck running to be the first one to post that a TD formed.... but this I really wanted to relish, think on and take it all in as a lot is going on and my blog is a long read, let's be real.... not just posting graphics or trying to dazzle you with a model that doesn't look like most the other models and this is a season to remember on many levels so took my time, staying focused and thinking, writing and tweeting. 

This is my season, my time of year since I was a child and first felt the wrath of a hurricane, heard the woeful sound of the wind, like a human moaning loudly, violently as palm fronds flew away and huge avocado trees crashed to the ground. I've joked not much happens in Miami growing up other than Hurricanes so we all are a bit Cane Crazy one way or the other; either the first out of town or the first to get to the beach when the first far away distant breakers begin rolling up on our own personal beach. As for me I was hooked the first time I saw a map on TV and a meteorologist prone to making jokes look deadly serious as we were in the path of a Hurricane. Won't deny I love to track, I've loved chasing some and as always I'll remind you it's way more "fun" to chase the weather than to have a Hurricane chase you to your home, to your front door and rip the fabric of normal away and threaten the lives of those you love. 

Get a plan!
List your priorities!
Kids..............crayons, paper if power is out ...
Babies .............diapers
Pets...............appropriate Pet Food
Evacuation Zone.... evacuation and get a plan and list for what you need to take.
Fruit Trees................get those mangoes down now especially if they weigh a ton like Miami ones do.
Medical Condition........try to get extra meds and if you live on OTC meds ...stock up.
Caffeine Addict..........add canned espresso to your water me you'll thank me.
Elderly...........meds and Attends or Depends or whatever you need.

Oh and good to have a sense of humor........

Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram

Keep reading if you didn't.
Lots of salient info there still.

Let's start with 92L 100%
Ready for an upgrade.

MIMIC signature like a TS.

Active ITCZ for June!
2 Invests!!

93L (yes that happened) is now 40% Orange.

92 higher, 93 lower.
Islands need to pay attention!

Going to preface everything with the reminder it's June, though we are acting like late July or early August here. I know you want to see the models, but remember it's June and June systems and even Bertha in 1996 in July struggled before going the distance. They can often look great like a flash of fire in a frying pan and then the cover is put onto the pot as shear gets stronger closer to the Islands.  

Again some go into the Caribbean.
Other's take a weakness in the High.

Usually, not that this year if usual, its common for Tropical Waves that get a name to peter out in the Caribbean from strong headwinds ...the well known shear at the door of the Carib. Even when that shear is weaker, if the system is not stacked and strong it gets buffeted by these strong winds. If it's stronger it can fight it off, but if it's stronger they often find a weakness in the HIGH and avoid the SHEAR and get not just a name but some fame.  High Pressure for now is keeping them both low. Will talk more on 93L and it's possible future later today. 

Also, remember this well...sometimes a named storm gets into the Carib and starts to fall apart giving it up you figure to that graveyard of the Carib and if it holds together enough as a downgraded wave it can bounce back in the Gulf of Mexico. I am not saying that's happening, reminding you that it has happened before. So remember it's not over til it's over.

Harvey 2017 August Storm.

Totally different storm but remember sometimes storms that fight their way in what's not the best conditions can come back to bite you when they flare up strong again close in. 

From Zoom Earth.... 
92L steadily rolling since Africa.
93L following in it's footsteps...for now.

Stay Tune, 
Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram
Twitte rmostly weather, Instagram weather and whateve.

Ps.........Remember Islands, especially NE Islands really need to pay attention. Everywhere in the Islands, but most concerned currently on NE Carib Islands.

I know strange year.
What month is this?
Chasers seeing Christmas in Carib in 2023.

But this is far from wrapped and done.


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