Hurricane Harbor

A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!

Thursday, May 18, 2023

Purple Splotch in the Tropical Atlantic ... Low Tropical Wave Healthy for Late May... Low off FL & Carolinas. COLD BRR Temps in NE. What's Going On??


Impressive signature on Earthnull.

Temperatures down right chilly in the NE.
You can see the air racing down in Earthull at top.

Yet if you look close up.............
...there's a need to spin below.
Low trying to form.

NAM short range model.
This is evolvoing now, it's not an IF set up!

Friday shows a stormy weekend for Carolina Coast.
Then it rides up, sneaks up the coast.
Non-tropical Low.

Why are we following the evolution of a weak low pressure system off the coast of Florida that will quickly slide up to the Carolina beaches? Because it's part of a pattern that has evolved and models show a similar sort of set up down the tropical road. And, that area is ripe for early season development.

It takes a while for the Tropical Atlantic to wake up and for tropical waves to come off at a higher latitude with more potential, but off the SE coast it's common to see something tropical or subtropical try and form from a similar set up. Seems odd with record cold temperatures in New England for us to be watching for a tightening of the pressures and wondering on if Arlene could form in this region. Either way there are weather notices warning of strong weather off the coast of the Carolinas.  That map is for June, a few weeks away... so it's a good indicator of what we could see in late May tropically speaking.

Current map from NWS... 

And as Chick says on Twitter... attention!

An Easterly breeze in NC in May means... 
Something cooking.

And as I type in real time here.
After saying the Tropical Atlantic is quiet.
A purple splotch pops up in the Tropical Atlantic.
It's not a yellow circle...
...but often purple precedes yellow!

Check that out.
Image below shows the wave hightlighted.

Models show another set up next week of a repeat of this week's "nontropical low" off the coast of Florida following the same pattern with some variations. Models also follow a stronger than average wave for May across the Atlantic and then.....down the road more moisture in the Bahamas. 

Those are thunderstorms forecast by the EURO.

With so much moisture popping up regularly and the water only getting warmer something will pop up eventually. It's a process that takes place in real time, over time and every day brings us closer to something to watch in the tropics!

Take note now of your specific needs for your Hurricane Supplies.
Dog Food?
Stay up to date on your medications, keep some extra meds if you can...
And the list goes on...

Sweet Tropical Dreams, 
Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram

Ps the beat goes on.... patterns evolve.... stay tuned!


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