El Nino vs Warm Atlantic Waters ALSO Mathematical Problem Solved in Real Time by Mother Nature Hurricane Season 2023

Listening to Mike talking on YouTube and the truth is the big question in the tropics for the 2023 Hurricane Season is how will El Nino impact the number of hurricanes and will it or won't it at some point shut down the Caribbean. Shear from El Nino usually shuts down the Caribbean but shear can relax suddenly on any given day kind of like football.

Add in the factor that the water is warm in the East Atlantic out near Africa, especially warm for this time of year. Everyone who wants to ignore El Nino points out how this may mitigate the El Nino negative effect and we could end up with a rough busy season.

Few people have mentioned that Saharan Dust gets a vote and by the way .... SAL is already in place doing it's thing and nothing can bust a busy season more than Saharan Dust. Huge mitigating factor!!

It's May and we still have cold fronts dipping down towards Cuba. On one hand that keeps the water temperature near Florida cooler (mitigating factor) and yet when fronts go dead in the water near Cuba it can help trigger a tropical system if shear relaxes and pressures drop. That is especially true once the Miami Monsoons begin aka Rainy Season that is a way easier term to use with tourists than "MONSOON" so we will just go with "Rainy Season" when pressures are lower, storms flare up fast and it can sometimes provide an inviting environment for tropical development close in...

You may notice there's no pictures and that's because Blogger is working weird today. Yes, there is a Mercury Retrograde. Do I believe in those things? Yes, no ... maybe. They come, they go like El Nino and La Nina, like the MJO and SAL and you have to roll with the punches so today is just straight writing, and I'll add in photos later should things change.

It's all plus and minus when it comes to forecasting what Hurricane Season will be like before it begins. 

And as Jimmy Buffett sings Math Sucks.

Bottom Line:

IT ONLY TAKES ONE!!

So stay tuned.

Prepare like you are getting that one hurricane!

Use your time now wisely. 

Things get kind of crazy when you are in the Cone...

Sweet Tropical Dreams,

BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=toPWpDHr_6s   song link for those of us with a love/hate relationbship with Math ;)

PS........now it let's me put in pics and songs. Sometimes just go with the flow, got bigger fish to fry today than trying to figure out Blogger.