Hurricane Harbor

A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!

Wednesday, September 22, 2021

Tropical Depression 18 Forecast to be Tropical Storm Sam. A Trouble Maker or Just a Tease? Time Will Tell. Lots of Ocean to Roam Still.

The main news tonight is that TD 18 expected to be Tropical Storm Sam down the road is taking his own time pulling himself totally together. Speaking of time, Sam is forecast to move very slowly the next few days as he bides his time apparently waiting for the Atlantic set up to resolve after it hosted so many visitors over the last few weeks. While Peter and Rose were relatively weak, still they leave a mess with regard to steering currents and the true state of the High Pressure to the North for when Sam hits his stride and his forecast 115 MPH. When the NHC forecasts 115 MPH it usually means it will be 135 MPH in real time vs forecast time. Let's hope this truly stays out at sea, because the East Coast has too many cities that will be watching it carefully once it gets it's self together!

Current models show Sam beginning to make that turn before the Islands. This is early modeling and it has not been stellar in that it's currently not as strong as they previously forecast.  And, moving slower than expected means the 5 to 7 day game may change much down the road. 

Really just discussing Sam, as that is what will be the storm to worry on for a while, and the others are not threatening us. But what does worry me is what we do not see yet, and that specifically is a Caribbean system that either forms from a wayward, slow to develop wave or in the general SW Caribbean near South America that often pops up as we move into October. As tonight is the first autumn night, it's safe to say we are close enough to October to watch for development coming up out of the Caribbean. And, when that happens we won't be excited to see cold fronts moving across the weather maps as it will be those cold fronts that will create a path to trouble for any Caribbean Hurricane. 

There are many products we look at besides "models"
And its most important to look at what is...
...and what may be. 

Sam has a long way to go before this is over.
And he is a slow mover for the next few days.

Too soon to count TD18 aka SAM out.
I sure hope we can but that time is down the road.

Check back later for more updates.

Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram


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