Hurricane Harbor

A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!

Sunday, July 04, 2021

Elsa By Jamaica ... a Mess But NHC Believes It Has Potential ... It Seems. Poor Sat Presentation, Barely a Pulse on Earthnull & Crossing Cuba


I'm going to start off with the facts and the facts are Elsa is a very messy storm with a poor circulation that is most likely misaligned (distantly aligned too) with it's only good asset is it's strong pulses of convection traveling in mass in a messy convective bubble seriously lacking structure moving still further West than original forecast. For days I've been playing the song Jamaica song from Jimmy Buffet because it's been pretty clear Elsa would make it closer to Jamaica than forecasts seem to imply while waxing poetic on Haiti and Cuba there was little talk on Jamaica. 

Weak storms get further West than strong storms. Hurricanes moving 31 MPH forward speed in the Caribbean always fall apart and/or topple over as they cannot stay vertically aligned. This is not rocket science it's 101 meteorology. 

This is NOT a HURRICANE and the NHC forecasts it only to be near hurricane strength once in the forecast period but they have not been stellar with intensity forecasting nor this storm. Days ago they put out a discussion saying it would move steady in a seamless line according to their track forecast at 60 MPH intensity and I knew there was no way that was going to happen.  Then they changed it and upped it's potential after seeing hurricane force winds in Barbados to the one below. It's barely at 60 MPH currently (I think they are being generous) and it has a poor structure though continual bursts of strong colorful convection. 

Compare to the current one.

The forecast has rarely verified intensity wise.

The cone remains generally the same.
A bit to the left early on...
...adjusted more to the right at the end game.

Note the hesitation in the discussion.

I'm sorry but 1009 for barometric pressure is HIGH.

Earthnull presentation looks horrible.

That looks more like an open wave than a Tropical Storm.
Well a very weak tropical storm NOT 60 MPH.
I don't care how colorful her convection is...
...and DISPLACED from it's weak center.

Where does it cross Cuba?
Some areas have higher mountains than others.
This is not a well developed system.
Should it take that model forecast track.

Yes that is a trough dipping down.
But Elsa needs to be vertically stacked enough...
..for the front to grab her.

This is one of the many problems.

On the left is "Hurricane Elsa"
On the right is the current state of Elsa.
Note random convection to it's SW is also bright.

Elsa doing Jamaica currently.
Nice curvature, no real aligned center.
I'd joke she needs to go to Rehab but....

Bottom line is it's up to Elsa to pull it together or wander around off track but within the cone and the NHC slides the cone a drop on every 6 hour advisory package. Messy but alive. 

I'll update this afternoon. Trying to resolve some issues for my daughter who is in good care in a hospital in Erie recovering from surgery after a fall while camping in the Allegheny Mountains ... shes slammed into a tree that broke her fall and didn't roll far..........   seriously she will need rehab to learn how to walk with a plate in her hip and Elsa needs some kind of rehab to pull itself together IF it wants to be the over hyped cyclone about to do Florida that the media is making it out to be.

THAT SAID............... IF she pulls it together and manages to get to warmer water with less shear she COULD be a problem. How? Let's say she movers slower than forecast currently and misses the front partially because it's not that strong (going stationary now... maybe next one) because she is not vertically stacked tho she looks better than she is... or is not.

It's the first week in July but feels like late August and there are even viable fronts on hand to finish this odd picture of the tropics in July.

I'll update late tonight
Thanks for your patience and follow all my friends on Twitter that I normally trust and we will see what Elsa actually does today but again........she's doing Jamaica.

Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram
Ps sorry for typos but everyone is calling me at the same time about my daughter (she's not young an adult) and Elsa from Miami because the media is playing it up as if a big storm is coming.... 


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