Hurricane Elsa Develops After Building a SOLID CORE Late Last Night. Fast Mover 28 MPH WNW & Fast Developer. Caribbean Now. Florida or GOM Later? Prepare Now for 2021 Hurricane Season!

Hurricane Elsa ... 

I'm going with this cone vs the traditional one.

There is nothing traditional about Hurricane Elsa.

July 2nd! Strengthening.

Encompassed in Saharan Dust and Dry Air.

Going wide you really need to appreciate this.......

Almost looks like it's being protected by it.

Go figure. Synoptics vs Models.

Real time imagery vs busted forecasts.

 

Let's go with this image last night.

When you see that... u know where this is going.

Without models it's consolidating and coming on strong.

And it did as it attained 

Last night I went bat shit crazy on Twitter tweeting one picture after another of an incredibly beautiful CORE developing in real time way ahead of forecasts that kept it at 60 MPH strength as previously forecast for DAYS.  I know models showed... but with warm water and lower than normal shear in the Eastern Caribbean developing FAST before the Caribbean* cruising along at 28 MPH ... that's definitely something that wakes you up at Midnight faster than a double espresso!

Why *"before the Caribbean" is important is that it is said always that for a storm to intensify and develop it needs to turn into a Hurricane "before the Caribbean" and well Elsa did it!  It's the often repeated caveat to Caribbean Hurricanes and Elsa met that caveat with style. So now what? Yes, some models kill her off but others do not and in real time she's got great structure, if Elsa was going into modeling I'd direct her to Victoria's Secrets sooner rather than later. Impressive bone structure this morning, what will be in a few days only time can tell. A core, an eye developing and beautiful banding, if this doesn't wake you up ...you just aren't into tropical weather.

I'll update this blog later today with details. I want to see the next model runs that have the exact data from Barbados with the core, the hurricane force winds put into the model runs. But y'all know me I check the models but I don't live and die by them as hurricanes are fluid in development and everything flows in tandem with a strong developing hurricane or a strong developing Upper Level Low shooting wind shear at it. This could be one wild ride.

As for Champlain Towers, where I worked in 1997 and where my friend is still missing.... no one here is more concerned on how this will impact recovery efforts and how the structure remaining, the mounds of dirt and debris gone through carefully grid by grid could be rearranged, set back quite a bit. Morbidly, my daughter asked me if it could make bodies come to the surface if there is flooding in that area. She asked could they put a tarp on it. No we are not obsessing we are working our way through shock, grief and shock as people we know escaped and others did not. And, I ran the office briefly in early 1997 so its all very real to me. I don't know, I just don't.

BUT that said...having reporters on both CNN and FOX refer to Elsa last night as being "just offshore Florida now threatening this ..." is disgusting. I get hype as I studied journalism as part of one of my degrees in English and yes I know if it "bleeds it leads" but Elsa had not hit Barbados and was closer to South America (very close) than South Florida so let's get a grip here and be a bit more honest about this drama. YES, there is a real concern that Elsa could impact a good part of Florida including Miami but it can also get further into the Caribbean and impact Jamaica meaning a sharper turn and every mile it moves at 28 MPH WNW gets it further West than Haiti and that leaves only Cuba as Florida's "windbreak" and by the way the water is really warm South of Cuba and near Jamaica. Think back on Matthew a similar storm but in late September NOT early July that took a similar track til this point developing fast, moving fast and then it sat just off the coast of South America and exploded and maintained intensity before it found it's ride out of the Caribbean North...  other's such as Elsa continue West and make a run at the Yucatan and others just curve gracefully WNW to NW to North and make that Cleo sort of run at Miami. 

The long term game depends on intensity of Elsa, changing influences and where if any the fronts set up and how far and fast they dip down. It's just really too soon to tell but the NHC is averaging the models out carefully creating a smooth, steady cone to monitor and as I have said for weeks we are way past the time for you to start getting your act together and having Hurricane Supplies for the ENTIRE season, perhaps Elsa will be your reason to shop but if you live in the Gulf of Mexico, Florida or even the Carolinas (as it could visit up on the back side later) use this July 4th 3 Day Weekend wisely and make sure you know where your shutters are as well as having a good supply of medications and "hurricane supplies" that are needed in your home. You know your priorities, people with pets need pet food, people with babies need diapers...this is not rocket science.

Do it.

We can talk on where it will make landfall in the US tomorrow but our friends in the Caribbean are going to deal with Elsa today, tomorrow and for the next few days. By then the models will have a better idea where it's going and the NHC will make their best forecasts.

Stay tuned.

Besos BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram