Elsa.... Issues Now, Problems Later

 

Elsa is shown above.

A ball of convection.

Not well organized.

Exhausted from her 30 MPH sprint thru the Carib.

As I said previously no hurricane can move 30 MPH forward speed at this latitude and keep it's convection together and not begin to tip over (structure wise) and that's why she is downgraded currently to Tropical Storm. Fast Forward Speed kills hurricanes usually. She's flaring up bright tonight near Haiti and going to cross Cuba soon. Then Florida. Then Florida? Where and how sharp does she turn and how fast does she move? There's a lot to say and the current concern is the Florida Keys. 

It is common for storms to intensify fast over the very warm waters of the Florida Straits so what she looks like now vs later over Cuba should not be seen as what she will look like as she approaches some part of the Florida coast later.

Honestly I have a family emergency, my daughter was camping in this weekend at an event and fell and injured herself. ATV vehicles had to go into the forest, get her and bring her out to a nearby small hospital where they airlifted her to a Trauma 2 Center in Erie and then have a long operation on her hip. She didn't want me to know so I wouldn't worry but that ship sailed. So I'm busy tonight trying to get info and that's obviously more important than Elsa.

Bottom line with Elsa really is it's up to Elsa does she restrengthen, relocate to a new center and find her groove again. It's too early to say what the limits of her abilities or strength will be we have to watch in real time and models get data from recon so that's good.

NHC discussion shows a borderline hurricane.

That''ll probably change one way or the other.

Cone will change and I'll update it later.

Thanks for your patience.

I'm a bit in shock... I don't camp.

Days Inn is camping to me...

Dina is okay ish but she'll have a long recovery.

So trying to update family members she's okay 

but not okay ...if you know what I mean.

Besos BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm 

I'll update tomorrow.