Hurricane Harbor

A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!

Thursday, May 21, 2020

Tropical Thoughts. Looking Back At Florence and Fanny. Flooding in Midland Michigan. NOAA 2020 Predictions for an Above Average Hurricane Season

My thoughts this Thursday Morning.
As the Tropical World Turns... model at a time.
And we watch the huge low spinning around.

One thing I learned yesterday is that there is a Midland Michigan, because when I hear Midland I definitely think of Texas. Sadly, everyone now knows where Midland Michigan is today because the dam broke yesterday, 11,000 people were evacuated, everything flooded and there was more damage there than anything anyone ever expected from Arthur. And, to be honest that happens often in our world where people are terrified of a hurricane or an earthquake yet not much often happens. Some palm fronds fall down, sometimes your garage awning is gone with the wind and it turns out Mother Nature pruned that ugly old tree your wife kept telling you that needed trimming. Not all hurricanes are Dorian or Maria, most are moderate in nature as they go and after a stormy night they end up being not as bad as everyone feared. The NHC explains the stronger winds didn't it make it down to the surface and everyone is grateful. As for Earthquakes, I lived in LA and they rarely happen and when they do usually everyone takes bets on how strong it was and where the epicenter was out in the desert. Sometimes you lose a piece of pottery that was placed precariously up on a shelf that you either loved or secretly hated.

Once in a while a huge memorable earthquake happens and turns your world around some and sometimes a Major Hurricane crosses Florida like a buzz saw trying to saw it in half to finally secede from the rest of Florida; truly everyone's secret dream. It's those once in a while Michael or Katrina storms that keep us up at night when we hear a vigorous tropical wave is moving WNW under a strong high and that it could impact Florida later in the forecast period. Usually the NHC writes that discussion the way someone might say "if you listen long enough they will play Sweet Home Alabama" on the country station. Maybe, someday, somewhere it will make landfall and until it forms into a hurricane and the models run every person from Galveston to Cape Hatteras is sure the hurricane is going to come straight to them. I can always tell when it's not a Florida storm, because my friend Sharon says to me "well, looks like you're gonna get this one" the way she might have said at 16 "nah, he's got a crush on you he doesn't even know I exist" and well if you knew Sharon like I knew Sharon you'd know she gets a big envious, jealous and always wants a hurricane.

It's the big name storms we always remember.
They get a movie made about them.
Everyone remembers them.
Sometimes a long shot like Florence...
...surprises us all.
Then the name is retired finally.
Which name will be retired this year?
Noisy tropical minds want to know.

The real Fanny Brice.
Young, beautiful.
Talented and determined.
Kind of like Flo.
Have we ever had a Hurricane Fanny?
No, but we had Fran.
Perhaps Fanny should be added to the list!
Old names are new again like Charlotte!

In truth many a storm starts out with dire predictions for death soon out in the cold Atlantic and it stays alive, makes it across the Atlantic threatening the Carolinas as a Major Hurricane and that's why I showed that long video. Okay, in a mood listening to old favorite songs from all sorts of genres because I'm ecclectic like that. So Florence, like Fanny, showed everyone who was boss and who was the star. In truth Fanny was quite pretty and not such an ugly duckling when she was young the way Barbra Streisand portrayed her. My Great, Great Uncle might have taken that picture, he was a photographer for Ziegfield and amazingly my best friend Sharon's Grandmother or Greatgrandmother was a dancer for Ziegfield. Karma is amazing isn't it?

Sound gets a little wonky there at the end.
Gremlins at play today everywhere.

So don't count out areas that look as if they can't spin, because this seems to be the year of anything is possible and a hurricane can spin up fast, a flash flood can take out a dam and a disease from China can travel both ways around the world and in no time cruise ships are docked in port and we are all learning it seems to make our own Sourdough Starters. Okay, I'm not because Sourdough doesn't taste as good anywhere the way it does in Seattle the way Bagels are best noshed on in Brooklyn. Just saying, some things are locational in life. When I lived in LA I obsessed on earthquakes and geology (I knew every fault line everywhere for miles around) and when I'm on the East Coast I ponder on hurricanes making it inland to Raleigh. In Seattle, while tasting lavendar jam in the inconic marketplace I wondered if anyone who had "the virus" may have also recently tried it ........but yes I tried it as it was February when 2020 sounded like such a good idea!

Oh and the jam was incredible!
And things are still easy....... just need patience and learn to adjust.

Closer up this is what we need to watch.
Plumes of moisture in the SW Carib.
Convection near the Bahamas.
Wayward, stubbon tropical waves.

Somewhere, something is going to come together.
And in 2020 it usually happens fast.
So I'd watch that area S of Cuba.

A dam collapses.
A virus goes viral.
Tropical Storms in May.
Oh my...
...what's next?

Tropically speaking Bertha.
Stay tuned.

NOAA finally gave their thoughts.
A bit late to the party.
And they always give this wide range.
But you get the idea.
They also think it's an Above Average Season.

6 to 10 hurricanes.
They really don't like to be pinned down ...
At least 3 Major Hurricanes.
Maybe 6... 

Enjoy the tune below.
These are the names.
One of them may be remembered forever.

Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter


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