Hurricane Harbor

A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!

Monday, May 11, 2020

The Way of the World or How Things Work in the Tropics and in LIFE

Let's start with an old fashioned weather map.
Yes NOAA still puts them out.
Anytime you have fronts on the move.....
...and stalling out in the Florida Straits.
Lingering in the Bahamas.
You gotta pay attention.
Pay attention and remember........
... everything evolves.
What forms somewhere......
....doesn't always start there.

Weather is Drama.

Dabuh is great at drama and weather.
Surfing the waves and the web.
@DaDaBuh on Twitter.

Nothing is stagnant remember that.
And forecasts often change.
Things evolve.

Think on Covid 19 aka Coronavirus.
Or try not to.
The facts keep changing, evolving.
Kind of like the weather.

Now my thoughts.........
.... trying to explain and lay them out.
Anyone can post satellite loops and maps.
It's about understanding the process.
Of how things evolve.

Going to start here today with my thoughts on the current state of the tropics. Or as many have asked "are we getting an early storm this year?" and the answer is it's a definite possibility. Whenever you have fronts on the move leaving clumps of moisture down in tropical waters with a high pressure to the North of it keeping it in place and high water temperature capable of some sort of tropical development  ------ the answer is yes. The question is on the flow and how fast that flow is and if wind shear will stop anything from forming. We have in the past had two storms named Arthur form off the East Coast of Florida and wander North along the coastline. We've also had a Bertha do that and leave it's impact as an early landfall in July on the Carolina Coast before other storms hit the same region later in the season. So the answer is yes it is possible.

Putting some model images here and note they are long range and some not very reliable but when you get that many showing a similar suspect areas in the same region and time frame they need to be taken more seriously.

Different model May 15th... 
you begin to see this area trying to develop.
Note the High to the North.

May 16th Icon...
Low there and hags around there.
Note the location and movement of the high.

Icon May 18th... 
High keeps it to the West.
Kind of in place.
Another High above.

Note system in EPAC above also.

Below May 20th another model.
That linkage between the Lows.
A trio of lows.
Looks like our satellite pic from today.

May 18th below again 
Icon is always interesting.

After watching the models and thinking on what to write.
I saw that this was recently posted on Twitter.

I respect them very much.
Great to follow, great App too.
Starting off with a low wager here.

I'd agree that's a good place to start.
I'd probably give it a 20% chance currently.

Nothing happens the moment it happens in our memory, before we suddenly noticed something and had that AHA MOMEN; things were building up, setting up and getting ready to "suddenly start" and that is true whether it's the start of the Hurricane Season, a large Volcanic Eruption or an eruption of a Pandemic that travels around the world. There is a moment we remember we heard something about a rash of pneumonia in China somewhere. There is a moment we remember Donna or Katrina or Michael making landfall somewhere that impacted us directly.

We were all watching Wuhan and reading reports from China on a strange rash of pneumonia that wasn't responding to regular antibiotics then we were told it was a dangerous flu. We were told it flew into the country in Seattle or somewhere on the West Coast. It didn't seem to impact young people or children. We began to notice cases on the rise in Iran and India and Italy and suddenly we heard bodies were stacked up in Italy and we learned about the connection between the fashion industry in Italy and China and we remembered we are one global world and yet we seemed to forget people from Italy were traveling to New York and London and every other place where the virus broke out on it's way to being a Pandemic that is raging across the globe and suddenly we hear of children getting strange rashes and their bodies being attacked by a new form of what seems to be the virus but the events are constantly evolving. And weather is like that too as weather is bound up eternally with the atmosphere that is always evolving and flowing and out of nowhere the Polar Vortex shows up too late for the party but making us wonder why it's snowing in New York in May when the sun is out. Mother Nature is always wonderful at throwing curve balls better than any award winning pitcher. Yes, I know long run on sentence but  2020 has been one long run on drama and pretty sure the hurricane season will ramp up the drama.

It took a long time for Andrew to become a Major Hurricane and it was written off early as a Fish Storm not ready for prime time in a slow starting hurricane season. Florence was written off as a Fish Storm that turned North too fast off the coast of Africa and people stuck a fork in it and stopped watching it but some of us kept noticing it's tenacity and stuck with it. Most of the Carolinas remember it as the Cat 5 Hurricane that was going to slam into our favorite beach town even though it wasn't a Cat 5 at landfall but did take it's toll on our economy. Hurricane Cleo was written off by Miamians as it moved NW towards a landfall up near the Carolinas and then it came back South to slam into Miami taking a rarely traveled road.

Mount St. Helens rumbled slowly and those early rumbles were early written off as normal before they became stronger and people began taking notice and then one day it blew it's top and spewed ash across a large region making a place in our collective memory; but the the process began before that and the signs are either noticed and examined and worried or ignored until the big eruption.

People track the possibility for severe weather on the Plains for days, weeks and debate if they should chase or not chase and if they chase where will they chase and then suddenly we see a F4 Tornado on the ground and it continues rearranging towns on the Plains and makes it's way onto our Twitter Feed from chasers on the ground.

As for the Hurricane Season things have to set up just right to produce an early season A storm vs a late season A storm; Alma and Agnes were early storms and Andrew was a late August landfall and yet both are remembered for the damage and toll they took on our lives. Many things had to fall into place before the high dug in and the cold front fell apart and Andrew turned due West and began intensifying underneath a strong high that propelled it towards South Florida.

 So keep this all in mind when watching the tropics, stocking up early on supplies that are already low because of the Year of Covid-19 and think seriously on where you would go should a hurricane threaten Charleston or New Orleans or Miami or Tampa or Mobile or New York City or Cape May. It's just been that kind of year. Spend some time on your favorite website (I'll post links to mine soon) and watch the grids on if you see something pop up in these grids then watch more carefully but now is the time to prepare.

Also add this APP to your phone as trust me you will be thankful you did down the tropical road.

It's a busy day for me.
I'm in a Zoom Call planning a Zoom Convention tomorrow.
Talking to my brother in Greece on Messenger.
Writing and editing this blog.
Oh and I watched the Cuomo Press Conference.
My kids sent me a box filled with coffee...
..and sweets and caramel toppings.
I'm on a busy news day high.

And yes I need to talk to several people.
But I want to be careful here.

The message is start preparing now.
Stock up slowly as best as you can.
Yes money is short but Mother Nature doesn't care.

As I have said recently several times.
Be it the Depression, WW2 or the Spanish Flu..
Hurricane Season is Hurricane Season.
One does not negate the other.
Sorry but true.

Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter

Ps Great scene from a cute play made into a movie.
Learned the song for Drama years back.
Funky story, funny girl.
Oh and a Venus Retrograde starting...
Lord have mercy.........


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