Hurricane Harbor

A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!

Monday, April 27, 2020

Thoughts on the Hurricane Season - Possible Analog Years. Constant Severe Weather in the Deep South. Watch Decaying Frontal Boundaries Always.

An awesome picture of the world today.`
From out of space... by way of satellite imagery.
Earth isn't wearing a mask.
Just it's people are wearing masks.
And I'm wondering on the Hurricane Season.
Is that moisture down in the Bay of Campeche?
Yeah, comes and goes and comes and goes.
That time of year....

Looking back at the recent drama in the EPAC

Today's a new day. Nothing specific to watch in the Tropics. Our area in the EPAC did become a Tropical Depression but they did not give it a name. It was the first known Tropical Depression in April and let me tell you May (in a few days) has had it's share of early Epac storms so stay tuned as the water is still warm and more are on the way.

How bout the Atlantic? I bet that's what you're wondering. Nothing official. A super strong cold front without much cold air but enough to rip through South Florida like it was advertising the coming Monsoon Season made it's way into the Florida Straits. It's remnants are draped from the tip of the Yucatan to the Florida Straits to Andros Islands in the Bahamas. The image about shows three things. The remnants of the 1st Tropical Depression in the EPAC, the front moving through South Florida and a strong ITCZ down where it belongs. The image is from last night. It's a good example of the current environment the last few days of April 2020.

A close up of that area in the BOC.
It comes and goes.

Early season Tropical Waves by Africa.
Typical to see them but not this healthy.
They flare up... cross the Atlantic.
Wash up near South America.

Just BOOM appears.
Then rolls into the not so warm ocean.
Trust me the ocean will warm up.

More worried on how warm the ocean is in the GOM.
Around Florida and near the Yucatan.
A good site below shows us the actual temperatures.

Note from about Tampa South the water is hot.
In the Florida Keys....
...South of Cuba.
The Yucatan and the Carib.
Warm enough to support activity...
...should a player appear.

Nothing there now....
Mesmerizing loop though.

GOES16-GM-08-1000x1000.gif (1000×1000)

Also watch off the East Coast.
As always the end of any front.
Any dangling, decaying frontal boundary.
Like we have currently...
..and one more will make it through soon.

allfcsts_loop_ndfd.gif (799×559)

You can find this easily enough on Spaghetti Models

Why do I show this?
I've been watching the constant severe weather in the SE.
Severe Weather in the Deep South.
Watching for years with similar activity.

And some of those years correlate to other factors.
Watching for analog years.
1966 Tampa has a tornado in early April.
1953 Had violent tornadoes in the SE 
1996 has one in Selma, Alabama on April 19th
1998 Had a trio of deadly tornadoes...
Central Florida in February
Georgia to Virginia in March
April brought trouble to Alabama and Georgia.
Similar sort of continual sweeping storms to this year.
1999 had an April Tornado in Louisiana.

Just looking at patterns.
I'll put out my thoughts soon.

So that's where we are today in late April.

When looking at the tropics.
It's good to take a wide view....
... to see the pattern and the progress.
The progress of the movement of time... we slip from one season into another.

As our world today?
Interesting how we are isolated yet closer.
Zoom meetings, Zoom Parties.
We gonna need ZUMBA to get some exercise.

Board games and bicycles....
...have replaced the movies and the gym.

My whole family WhatsApp argued out a move.
Okay they discussed it.
A father teaching his son how to play.
Lot's of discussion on the rules.
Are there rules when you play at home?
Or do you agree on rules?

Incredible picture below....
...someone let someone go storm chasing with him.
Smart man. Awesome picture.

We live in an evolving world.
At some point soon the tropics will have evolved.
And we will see Arthur and Bertha in the Atlantic Basin.

Stay tuned...
Oh.....the year 1886 is bugging me too.
But let's not talk on that yet.

Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram.

Ps... Interesting video.
Everything is up for debate.
But it shows how long germs could float in the air.
Something to think on while we begin to open up.
Wear a mask.... couldn't hurt. 


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