Hurricane Harbor

A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!

Friday, April 24, 2020

EPAC System Shows Signs of Development. RED Now 80% Could Become Amanda IF NHC Upgrades.

Above is where we stand now at 80%
Last night on Twitter when it was 50%

Look at that area this afternoon.
It's blooming....

As I said yesterday I'd talk today on the 2020 Atlantic Hurricane Season unless something else popped up, and indeed the convective area many of us have been watching in the EPAC is now at 80% chances of getting the name Amanda should the NHC make that call. Currently it has a narrow window for development over the next few days as it moves out to sea away from land. It's early for the EPAC that officially starts on May 15th, but as I've said sometimes season's begin before the bell sounds and the yearly headlines. The names for the EPAC systems are shown below and the first storm is Amanda. Isn't that a pretty name?

Again the Atlantic names are shown below.
I don't want to confuse anyone here.
We are talking about the Eastern Pacific.
As I said yesterday the water is hot in both spots.

As for our 80% area... a closer looks shows us much.
There's structure and some banding.

Really nice looking "wave"
Or area being investigated.

This is an excellent example of what I said yesterday.
Whether this one develops or the next one....
You can't stop a train.
And you can't stop Mother Nature.
And Mother Nature doesn't quarantine
...nor does she go by NHC official dates.
The season starts early... ontime or late.
Expect the Atlantic to pop sooner rather than later this year.

Looking at Earthnull ....
Looks like it could become Amanada.
Time will tell.
But I do want to point something out.
The moisture feed enhancing our severe storms... coming from this system.

Everything is connected in the atmosphere.
Watch the video below and you'll see what I mean.

If anything happens later today I'll add it to the blog. Otherwise I'll blog on Sunday about more factors that are at play with regard to the upcoming Hurricane Season in the Atlantic. The main factor being the extremely hot water close in both in the EPAC and the Atlantic Basin, but more on that on Sunday. 

Been a long day for me. Looking forward to the Jewish Sabbath at sundown when there is no WhatsApp or Zoom Shiva Meetings. I know three people who died last night and yes I know them personally in one way or the other. A friend's mother died of Cancer (she was in hospice at home) and had a beautiful life that ended to soon for my friend her daughter. My daughter-in-law's cousin who was 46 years old that she grew up with in Boro Park died last night after being hospitalized from Covid... she leaves behind 10 children without a mother and a family in shock. A Rabbi in Crown Heights I knew well passed away this morning and yes I know some of his kids very well. I'm going to be really happy to be offline and not hear any bad news for at least 24 hours. I'm going to rest, relax, read and pray. I'm going to do some hurricane research on previous seasons that began early or had similar conditions and I'll back on Sunday for a longer blog. Unless I have to do an update on our 80% EPAC season.

Have a blessed, beautiful weekend. I hope you live in a part of the country not ravaged by Covid-19 but let me tell you the hot spots... in those areas hearing about someone who died is an every day occurrence. 

So treasure your day, hug your loved ones or blow them a kiss on Facetime or Zoom and be glad that your life is inconvenienced but otherwise okay. I suppose "okay" is a matter of perspective. But start making plans for how you are going to deal with Dolly or Fay as the real Hurricane Season heats up. 

Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter or Instagram

Ps.. Don't you miss the ocean? I do. Til then .... I'll just pretend.


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