Hurricane Harbor

A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!

Tuesday, October 18, 2016

Invest 99L Goes Red For Chance at OTTO .. Caribbean Convection FLARES UP Flooding In PR NOT From Invest 99L Models and Discussion Could We Get to Paula This Year?

Invest 99L
80% chances of formation.
Seems a red light..or is that a green light for OTTO?

General model tracks for 99L keep this off shore.
Out to sea after a flirtation with the Outer Banks.

Some models show a closer approach to NC.
But rainfall would be on the Eastern side.
And after that it flirts with New England.
Basically it should run away with the cold front.

NRL Map Grid is up in place.
Usually that's a sort of go for lift off.

Not quite there yet ... but getting there.
October systems are often messy ...
...and they take their time to come together.

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Right about now you are probably thinking...
"where is it?"
October storms have a tendency of going "BOO!"
Seemingly forming out of nowhere.

Keep your eyes to the left.
Do not follow the convection being sheared away.

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The problem with going wide is evident below.
Hard not to stare down at the Caribbean and go "HUH?"
And suddenly forgetting about Invest 99L in the Bahamas.

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So I'm going to lead with some discussion out of NWS San Juan.
They are watching it all... but especially their own area.
There has been some flooding this evening from the red blob.

Hormigueros River above flood stage. 20 Feet.

You can see below the region affected on the map.
Not by 99L but by an area that may remain a while.
Either way they are having flooding.
Flooding in PR can be a life threatening problem often.

But we really are supposed to be watching Invest 99L
Seriously with the trouble we had this year from the earlier invest.
You'd think the NHC would retire it for the rest of this year.
Doesn't work that way but maybe it should ...
...will see soon how this Invest 99L behaves.

Seems they are in for more rain ...

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NHC is on it as well and they are on social media.
Follow them on Twitter please.

The NOAA loop shows our Invest here...

Then whoosh with the cold front it whisks it away

NHC at 8 PM said this about Invest 99L:

So that's where we stand.
The waiting game.

Funny how winter shows up again later in the week just in time to grab our Invest or Tropical Storm Otto and drag it out to sea if all goes as hoped for by many. It was in the mid 80s today in Raleigh and I got to tell you it felt a whole lot hotter. We do this holiday thing where we sit outside in booths and celebrate our holiday and eat together and it felt more like summer in Miami than Autumn in the Carolinas. That said, Sunday evening was beautiful and cool and actually on the chilly side. We had turkey and chocolate rum cake at a friends house and the weather was delightful on cute plates that looked a whole lot like Thanksgiving and then it turned warmer... 

A guest showed up at the Temple as he is in the State supervising a HAZMAT team down in the Fayetteville area. A whole lot of dead turkeys that after floating around in flood waters need to be removed of properly. That part of the state has many poultry farms ...or did as they were flooded out. A lot of other dead animals down there in the flood area also need removing and many of the main roads in and out are still closed. It's a huge mess with multiple complications such as dead farm animals everywhere and as the waters recede the true devastation becomes apparent. It's not all about having I-95 open again for tourists driving from Florida to New York, it's a whole lot bigger than that.

Lastly I want to show you one thing in the models.

Y'all know I'm not a big fan of the models this year.
But they hint at more low pressure in the Caribbean down the road.
Way down the road.
Between here and there something else could pop up.
That something else could be Paula if it form.
These are for after "Otto" if it forms and departs.
Just trying to keep it real. A lot of IFS still...

GFS above.
EURO below.

Time will tell.
But if that convection in the Caribbean persists...
Something to think on.

And as the NHC is at 80% on #99L
That's pretty bullish for them.

So Stay tuned.

Everyone be well, happy and donate please.
If you can, when you can remember those in need.

Besos BobbiStorm
Follow me on Twitter @bobbistorm

Ps Some great surf forecasting and bang up tropical discussion.

Watch the video at the end ...


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