Hurricane Harbor

A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!

Friday, May 27, 2016

TD2 Forms in Atlantic Headed to SC & SE Coast. Should be Bonnie by Tomorrow. NHC keeps it at 45 MPH.. we will see.

Welcome to the continuation of the 2016 Hurricane Season.
2 systems before June 1st.
Beginning to remind me a bit of 2012 Hurricane Season.
Different but similarities 

With La Nina coming on we could have a very busy season.
Basically the coast of South Carolina is now under a Tropical Storm Warning.

Note that would include the Myrtle Beach area a favorite Memorial Day town.

It's not as yet a photogenic system.
Give it time and warmer water.

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One concern I have is the models have swung from way inland .. hard right turn and riding the coast.
Riding the coast would keep part of it over warm waters of Gulf Stream.
That could keep Bonnie a player longer than had she headed inland.

I outlined the track in yellow but other models do exist and persist.

That's a tricky tango dance step scenario for that track to verify.
It may verify. 

It could pull north a drop of Charleston if that forecast hook is viable.
Either way small tropical storms are messy no matter where it makes landfall.

Discussion shows the steering currents.
If that erosion of the high exists and the tug of the shortwave verifies..
It could make a sharper turn right.after landfall.
IF the shortwave is not as strong it could move slower ...
...and less sharp a turn.

That is my discussion on the concerns on the strength of the short wave.
We will know more tomorrow after TD 2 consolidates better.
More consolidation and more evolved center of circulation.
After a forecast upgrade to Tropical Storm Bonnie.
TD2 needs a bit more of everything right now.

I believe it will be a bit stronger.
If it hits 45 MPH it will hit 50 I believe.
Again it needs to totally form for a good forecast.

Models are conservative.
That's funny as they are bullish on formation.
Yet conservative on intensification.

I was concerned on flooding with previous models showing it moving inland.
Cantore said it shouldn't be widespread flooding.
Hope he is right.

And it is a sharp right turn. 
Let's see if that verifies.
It's hot in Brooklyn. Very hot.
Extremely hot.
Even by the water it felt like Miami hot.
Tropical hot. Humid hot.
Beautiful but HOT.

Incredible Brooklyn Bridge Park.. 
But... it feels more like late June than late May.
So curious on that tricky trough two step that pulls Bonnie.

I'm hopeful the track is right but a bit skeptical.
We will see tomorrow... if Bonnie is dancing with the trough.
We also will see if Bonnie is indeed Bonnie.

As for the NHC Forecast for this year..
..we can discuss it in depth when there is no system with advisories.

You can read the NHC forecast for this year.
Near Normal.
I'd go with slightly above normal. 
Time will tell.

Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter... Brooklyn!

Will update tomorrow evening.

Crazy busy... if you come to visit try it out.
Views of the bridges and Manhattan are awesome.


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