Hurricane Harbor

A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!

Tuesday, January 12, 2016

Invest 90 Forms. Alex 50/50 Chances of Developing. Better Odds than Winning Powerball.


There is now an Invest in the Atlantic and chances seem higher in ways than yesterday for a named storm of some kind even though it's January. It's far from a sure thing but between the Invest and floater is up on the NHC site. Invest 90 L is definitely being taken more seriously. Look at that closed eye like feature out there, head down, winding up for a fight despite being way out in cold water.

rbtop_lalo-animated.gif (720×480)

Going to look at the possible Alex on various levels first.

Great blue shot of our faraway storm system.

A lot of tropical mets are in love with the rare January bonanza.
Tell them we might have the next winter storm... one cares. 
There's an Invest in January in the Atlantic.
Yes it's out by Africa but so was that Cape Verde storm last year....
...that hit Cape Verde Islands.

Nice image. You can really see the outer round wound up band of convection.

Amazing really. The light adds brightness...angle of sun in the image above.

Then we have the wider look below. 
Surf was up in Puerto Rico from this Invest.

Sort of takes up a good part of the ocean. 
Remember that thought as some models show it traveling across the ocean.

So what are it's chances? 

The NHC gives it a solid 50/50 chance of forming.
Bet you bought a Power Ball ticket with much worse chances...

This really is a matter of timing.
It has a chance at developing.
It's all in the timing.
A window so to speak of opportunity.

If it develops it can attain stronger as shown my models below.

What I'm finding most interesting is the track models.
The tracks take this "system" way up into the North Atlantic.

The energy over the last few days is shown below.

latest72hrs.gif (947×405)

Jim shows our Invest on his main page.
The image shows well how far away this is from the East Coast of America.

Also shows it's track straight up towards the North Atlantic.

There's a nice wave model on

99 hours out it has some interesting interaction with a winter storm. the North Atlantic.

Does it get the A name?

Stay tuned.

I'll update later in real time.

Besos BobbiStorm

Ps... Good video from yesterday with a good explanation on what's going on.


Post a Comment

<< Home