Is Alex Forming in the Atlantic? Sub-Tropical Still Seems Strange. Winter Storm Hera... Will be Big.

Close up.

Put it in motion

Out in the Atlantic is a system the NHC is watching.
They aren't watching as in staring at it compulsively.
No they are watching football, talking politics and doing weekend stuff.
But they are aware of it and making us aware they are aware of it.
And it's sort of that simple.
So we are all "watching it" and wondering if this system could really develop.

It has a spin. I'll give it that much.

It's tenacious it's been around for a few days.

If it stays together it has a better chance of developing.

It would have to wander down a bit into warmer water.

The water is not so warm so we are looking at SubTropical.

NHC has it on "yellow" still...

Yellow with 10% chances as of now.

In several days maybe 30% chances.

They are covering their chances if you know what I mean.

This is low confidence I believe but possible.

Well that's kind of strange.

My concern is that currently the weather forecasts have been off.
They have been so off that they have been not worth reading.
Here in the Piedmont (that's what they call it..)
It didn't rain when they said it would the other day.
We had flurries when they discounted it earlier in the week.
Friday was rain not mist and it was not in the forecast.
Today rain was in the forecast ... we had mist.

If you cannot trust the 1 day forecast... what can you trust?
Why should I look at the 5 day or 7 day ...
...when 24 hours out they get it wrong.

It's raining in Miami almost every day in the dry season.
Winter came to parts of the Mid-West over a month late.

There are lots of reasons.
Many.
None really matter when you expect it to be dry and it rains.

Raleigh in particular is an odd place it seems to forecast for this time of year.
Been here before... aware of the ongoing problem.

So back to subtropical storms.

They are an odd type of storm.
Maybe this is the type of year when one would form in January.

Before we had a fancy name for them and decided to actually name them.
They were strong, severe, gale like systems in the winter in the Atlantic.

Christopher Columbus insisted in encountered one.
Maybe he did or maybe he didn't.
Either way it was a hurricane like storm in its way.

In Europe accounts of such storms have been written about.
There is something so dramatic about the word HURRICANE.
Even if you just say Sub Tropical it conjures up a hurricane.
The words are intricately linked.

There are some interesting stories out there on hurricanes that happened in the winter. Were they really "hurricanes" or Sub-Tropical or Extratropical storms or just bad gales with hurricane force wind?

Some good reading: http://press.princeton.edu/chapters/s10324.pdf ... a sneak peak is below.

Look at that picture. 

Weather Armageddon. 

That's why The Weather Channel started naming winter storms.

You see without a name they aren't even capitalized.

They are just... "looks like a winter storm is coming"

But name it HERA and it's a WINTER STORM!!!!!

(why my computer says I'm in Magnolia Texas is another problem...)

See... TWC is watching it!

Truth is I've been told by a meteorologist I trust that there is a big winter storm coming.

Not specifically here but coming up this week.

Most local mets are not sticking their neck out yet.

Keep watching for this to change.

Keep watching. 

I'll update as the situation develops.

I just personally wish they could get the 1 day forecast right.

And then maybe I'll trust the 5 day.

A smart lady in the store last week insisted it's going to snow this week.

At the moment I don't see any reason not to believe her.

www.wral.com has not been very reliable.

My weather apps have not been reliable.

Being that it's an odd year... we may get a winter Sub Tropical with a name.

According to the mets in Tampa Bay... 

...this could be Alex!

Sweet Tropical Dreams

BobbiStorm

Ps.. everyone who loves tropical weather IS watching it ;)