Hurricane Harbor

A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!

Monday, October 20, 2014

Speculation on Hanna Forming in GOM .. Florida bound?

Note the location of the little orange x in the BOC.

Notice where the convection is:

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I'm showing the whole basin as nothing works in a vacumm here. See the flow Eastbound to the North of the convection?  See the bright colored blob moving away fast from the little orange x. That is convection that is blown off due to high wind shear. Until the winds aloft slow down it would be hard for anything organized to form. Weather? Yeah lots of it headed towards Florida and the Florida KEYS over the next few days.

Let's look closer at this picture. Note the red circle is around the actual x. The blue X is where Hanna is NOT formin today. The arrow shows which ways it's going to go today, tomorrow and eventuall.

Also note that something keeps trying to form down in SW Carib.. but doesn't.

Mike's Site shows the general information. Also shows lots of details.. 

The only real question is does it go towards Tampa? Naples? Key West? Miami to WPB? OBX?

Suffice it to say everyone from Tampa south needs to pay attention in the short term.

Rainmaker Yes. Maybe we should name it Rainwoman Hanna.

Great film. Sort of a present for Ron. My brother and our other brother Jay. Been looking at old cars, but I am digressing a bit here. Hard to tell the age of an old car if you can't see the whole picture.  And, the same goes for a system like this. Finding the exact center and the timing...the when it forms will tell the orientation of the curve East towards South Florida. That car in that movie has a divided windshield.  This system has a divided future.

Short term:
It's a rainmaker for South Florida and parts of Cuba... and the Yucatan.

Long term:
Maybe Hanna. And, will it be a Tropical Storm Hanna or a hybrid stystem? So many questions.

Note there it is currently on the NWS loops just a L over South FL on Sunday.

It's  a mystery like this  picture.

You can tell a lot from this picture. It's Florida.. Miami or Coral Gables or Miami Beach. Maybe Palm Beach. The girls are anywhere from 3 to 8 depending on who is tall and who is short. The lady looks a lot like my Aunt however not exactly like my aunt. I would like to think I am the little girl on the right clutching her as that would make sense as were close. It could be 1955 in which case that little girl is certainly not me. Maybe 1960? Still not sure and was the car a new car that was used for a road trip or an older late model car they were about to turn in. One friend said 1965. Maybe... girl on the left is wearing a short dress for 1955... maybe she out grew it. Someone is hiding in the shadow on the far left. 

You can tell a lot from a picture, but not who the person is unless the name was written on that back of it and it wasn't.

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A nice spin is going on down there. 

We can tell something is down there. We can see a spin. Then again we can see that something tried to spin in the SW Carib and then didn't because of shear.

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See the twist going on down there so CLOSE TO THE COAST. 

Do not get distracted staring at the convection in Mid-Gulf.

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All a matter of timing and the next front to move down towards Dixie.

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Where's Hanna? 

Keep watching. The next blog update will have other storms that acted in the same way this storm could act. However, until we have an actual storm to track we are just playing fantasy "what if" games.. 

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Keep watching................I know I am.

A lot of people are watching the weather in Key West as we move towards Fantasy Fest time. In 2005 Hurricane Wilma threw a trick into the cog of the machinery there and the party had to be postponed.

Cliff Notes: System migrates Eastward.

What kind of a system it will be depends on things that have not happened yet. Things unseen ...

Is that Hanna on her way to Fantasy Fest?

Only time will tell.................

Besos Bobbi

Ps... if you think you know what year that picture is taken with the nice lady and 2 little girls... tell me. Lots of mysteries unanswered...............


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