Hurricane Harbor

A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!

Wednesday, September 10, 2008

Hurricane Ike At 8PM 100 mph Still Moving NW @ 8!

If you go outside tonight in Miami and look up at the sky it is cloaked in milky white clouds obscuring the sun and so thick it almost looks like fog... especially on Collins where sand must be caught up in the never ending wind. The palm trees are all wind blown on Collins Avenue that runs north and south a block from the ocean. They have been sandblasted now for the last 3 days. All the fronds are blown in one direction and small pieces of debris and leaves are littering the ground. Nothing to complain about as we could have had a Category 4 storm knocking down all the palm trees and tearing at ocean front condos. Still... you can't help but know there is a hurricane out there somewhere.

I wonder what an early old time settler would think and imagine he would know some storm was far out somewhere at sea going to destroy someone else's life. Old Miami history is filled with reports of Seminoles friendly with early settlers coming round and letting those they were friendly with know a storm was brewing. There is a wonderful book written by Thelma Peters a Miami Historian. She offers some beautiful descriptions of life in early Miami and tropical weather. Many of the Seminoles traded with local merchants and were on friendly terms. When they said a blow was coming .. old timers trusted them.

Today we have The Weather Channel and online weather sites and the National Hurricane Center telling us when a big blow is comin' and when we are going to be lucky enough to miss one as it glides off slowly to the NW into the Gulf of Mexico.

I walked over on lunch to Cafetto a wonderful little coffee spot that serves coffee, chocolate, a sampling of salads and pastries and a large TV with TWC always on and wifi. I ordered coffee, curled up on one of the little sofa love seats and watched TWC, watched Ike spin in the Gulf. Upset that they said it was going WNW when it was obviously going NW and by the time I got back to work and had a chance to look they changed it back to NW. Seriously, can't we be honest and not wish cast?

So...if you are visiting Miami Beach and want some TWC with your coffee, give it a try. Nice place, nice feel, nice getaway and it even has a wine list!

As for Ike he is not getting away very fast, he has slammed Key West with nonstop wind and minor local flooding. I haven't seen the sun for 2 days in Miami.. not a real blue sky. And, someone on the Gulf Coast is going to see Ike in a few days.

Models have gotten "funny" as a reaction to his position further north than they had expected him to be. The GFDL broke from the pack and aimed Ike's fury up towards Houston. Landfall is still expected further to the south along the Gulf but even people in SW Louisiana are beginning to get nervous.

There is a trof digging in across the SW and Ike needs to get his butt back on the forecasted track if he doesn't want to get picked up a bit by that trof.

As for the 5pm discussion it mentioned "north" a lot.

Look at this one paragraph, look how many times it says NORTH and qualifies it "should" turn back vs some statement like it is expected to turn back to the wnw.

"which should turn the track back to the
west-northwest until Ike approaches a deep layer trough forecast to
cover the western United States in two days. All guidance turns
Ike northward to varying degrees within a day or so of projected
landfall. There has been a northward shift in some of the
guidance...most notably the GFDL and GFS. "

In the whole discussion it used to word "north" or some variation of it five times.

Imagine they will feel much better if it hauls off to the west fast.

It might be best maybe for the NHC to show the main models and then put their track in dark, bold black than the cone.

Meanwhile Ike is trying to build his eye walls..

8PM. Still going NW at 8 mph with 100 mph winds. Pressure is dropping so those winds should increase.

Ensemble models from

Going to leave you with some pics from Miami Beach taken today. Have a nice evening, stay safe.. if you live in Texas along the coast listen to your emergency management advisers and if you live anywhere along the Louisiana coastline play it safe and keep your eye on Ike!

As for me.. going off, going to watch TWC and put on some music. It's raining in Raleigh, NC. It's a big world out there. A big beautiful map filled with highs and lows and it's always raining somewhere.

To all of you who have emailed me and sent me stories or thoughts... God Bless you and your families and your loved ones. I pray you stay safe from the storm.

Night.. Bobbi


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