Hurricane Harbor

A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!

Sunday, September 03, 2006

Tropical Depression #6 Forms, Will it be a Major Cane?

Tropical Depression #6 forms in the far Atlantic from a Cape Verde Wave.
The National Hurricane Center advises that although it is currently moving to the NW and looks like it should go out to sea.. a ridge is forecast to build above it and that it should bend back towards the West in a track like (fill in the blank)___*_________ and it could possibly threaten our part of the world later in the forecast period.

Note: later in the forecast week could mean way more than five days away and therefore not a lot of stock is put in such a forecast. It is looked at more like a "suggestion" as opposed to an official forecast.

It is "discussion" and discussion by it's nature is not hard facts but the different possibilities that could happen should A happen and B happen and C happen.
And, as Ed said on it "Lets not generate a fever pitch until this system develops a temperature " and I so agree. We don't want to go THERE AGAIN.. do we? I for one, don't.

Historically speaking, most storms that form out there and are moving NW do go out to sea. They become as they call them in the trades, FISH STORMS.. yet the NHC feels reasonably sure enough to put it out on the table right now at this early point that we shouldn't start expecting a fish fry just yet.

They also say that they are not sure on timing.

Well, timing is everything in tropical prediction.

If the trough doesn't come down fast enough.. your timing is off.If the high doesn't build in fast enough.. your timing is off.If the Upper Level Low doesn't move out when you thought it would...If your trough disapeers too fast... your timing to catch it is off and the Storm can't pull up fast enough to stop from crash landing into Florida.

Note I am talking Andrew here, not TD6. All we heard was the trough was coming down, the trough was coming down and suddenly... poof the trough didn't rush fact the trough took a hike and went POOF and Andrew came barreling through.
If the factor that you are expecting that would inhibit the storm's intensity or intensify the storm into a Cat 3 doesn't arrive in time you have a busted forecast. The general track may be right.. a day or two off but the fly in the ointment here is intensity forecasting.

With regard to TD6 who is lumbering along like a lumberjack whale slowly and awkwardly towards the NW, one of the biggest systems I have seen come off of Africa since I can't remember when (some wave Burns and I tracked years back comes to mind)... this storm that some models are already building into a Cat 3 or Cat 4.. have heard talk of a Cat Five. Hell, I've heard talk that the NHC is going to name a new category just in honor of THIS here depression.

The hype may set up early for this one.

The words Cape Verde illicit respect and excitement.

Never the less... time will tell what happens to the soon to be Flo and in a year which hasn't been kind to Hurricanes I think it is a bit too soon to jump on the KILLER CANE COMING NEXT WEEKEND bandwagon... ya know?

IF you go back somewhere in the posts I wrote on Ernesto I mentioned how I thought it was funny that the same people who didn't want to believe the NHC on a track for Ernesto 3 days out were oogling a wave far off coming off of Africa that the same model was turning into a monster storm 15 days out.

Well................. welcome to the GFS's monster wave from a few days ago.
Seems the GFS model is on the money this year.
What do I think?

Can it turn back and keep on coming at us? Jim Williams at has a great feature that allows you to click on a link and watch what is supposed to happen with the storm. He is good. Very good. Much better than the show Joe Bastardi (who I like) was putting on. It is one of the best, clear cut, visual, graphic explanations of the long wordy discussion that those of us in the trade love. It is similar to but more touchy feely to the discussion Bryan Norcross gives during the 6pm. Less editorializing and less hmmning and hawwing and we do love Bryan down here in Miami but telling you Jim is good, really good so check him out and you can see for yourself why the NHC expects this Tropical Depression to go west, west, west under a building ridge giving all of us back here in the coastal regions a real tropical depressing.

Because.........if you believe the models.. then you also have to believe this will become a Major Hurricane, the first of the season.

Model link below:

Check out skeetobite's show as well as a friend from the message board's site for easy viewing

Some really excellent people here in the online community, some professional, some high end professionals, some amateurs who know their stuff...some great people all trying to track the storm and provide you with the best information you could use should the storm threaten your area.

Lastly, there is a really nice wave behind TD6 and I think it is lower and might be more interesting but meanwhile.. we are dealing with TD6 or soon to be FLO.. Florence.

Get used to the name.. whether she is a F storm for Fish or a F storm for Florida.. only time will tell.

I could see a Dora like hit... or Hugo, but I am trying not to think on the Great Miami Hurricane of 1926... all storms that formed in this general region. Big, wet.. oh my gosh, my heart goes pitter patter... wet, big, slow moving, Cat 4... no, no don't think on that one Bobbi.

So... as I sign off and wait for the 11pm discussion and advisory may I add... it's still early in the game, spend some time tracking with us online or reading up on hurricanes. Take the time you have tomorrow to keep in mind what you may need to remember later in the week.. if you need to remember.

And, while remembering... again may I say one more time... whether it was a 4 or a 5 does not matter. The Labor Day Cane killed a lot of poor vets who were working hard down in the Keys in the Dead of Summer being used mostly as mosquito bait as they tried to send back a little money to families back home who ended burying their dead or remembering them always as the fathers and brothers and sons who were washed away when the waves washed the train out to sea. Take a moment to be thankful you live in 2006 and not in 1926 or 1935 and that someone, somewhere in the bunker at FIU at the National Hurricane Center someone is trying to watch over you and for your safety and give you ample warning, the best that they can do at this time to bring you a Cone and a track that will scare you silly :)

Let's see what happens tomorrow.. as for me.. kids just came back from paintball shooting and they smell like they have been shooting eachother with paintballs in a field full of mud or horse manure or something at TY Park... ewww... ewwww ...pewww. Thank you NCSY for that reminder of the world out there .... ewwww lol. I think I should be happier when she is surfing and not playing paintball war with her friends.

And, life goes on... another storm forms, another one dies away.. I'll be back to play another day..

Bobbi, still too far away to be worried on the cone ... unless it's an ice cream cone..... Look at that cone, ewww


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