Hurricane Harbor: 92L at 80% Chances Red But NHC Not Blinking Yet... 94L Behind It.. Models Always Love the New Wave! Hawaii on Watch... Who Do U Believe In 2026? Which Model Gets It Rgith?

Again using my Mike does the Tropics Art Work.

Oh look Louie the dog.......gets into the show.
Invests 92L & 94L on the map.

93L is now TD Cristobal.

Subtropics hot ....

...Caribbean is not.

Summertime and the living is NOT easy. Whoever made up that song lived somewhere like Minnesota or maybe Canada and they didn't have to dig out from mile high snow! Trust me it ain't easy Down South in an El Nino year and Lord it's been crazy hot out in Colorado and Montana. I'm much more into Autumn Leaves falling and the sun puts on cool shades and you can breathe again and the Fall air with falling leaves put a glow into my golden world of wonder!

Let's talk Tropics. What can you say about models that fall in love with the next wave off of Africa every few days. I've never seen models crushing on every, early August wave in an El Nino Year as much as this year. They keep promising a big storm spinning into the Caribbean, against all logic and every wave goes the way ever other wave seems to have gone....and that is not the way the models said it might. That said, maybe ... you never know. Note the same models are hitting Hawaii with Hurricane Lala, and yet the big main island of Hawaii has never been hit by a hurricane directly. Then again this is Super El Nino so you never know.

Staying with Mike ..we are loyal friends!

Invest 92L W into Carib (??)

Invest 93L turns more up ...

...the way earlier waves didn't.

Either way question remains...

North of Islands..

East of Florida

SE of OBX

????

I do think in time

that is the zone where we worry.

Where we could have a big storm.

Some day this season...

...Remember September!

This is a close up of Dvorak Loop 92L

In ways I like it.

It's consistent.

Big wave, small center

Sliding West ...currently.

Not there yet it seems...

Image above from Zoom Earth, awesome site.

...so no PTC with this one tho is 80%

And yet.........this graphic says Nada!

So who is right and who is wrong?

which model gets it right?

Note I get why waves would stay West...

High is in defense mode.

Should be defensive player of the year...

...IF we don't get a hurricane.

But still weak West...

...should give it up to the shear there.

So stay tuned.

I'm going out for a while early today before it hits 100 degrees so there may be Ice Cream in my day or my regular Float this summer as that has been my drink of the day...Coke Float. If you know me, you know me and you're smiling. I'm consistent. If NHC is consistent they will upgrade 92L while I am not near the computer and semi offline ... staring at my phone and rolling my eyes.