Melissa Record Breaking Wind Gust 252 MPH! Bickering on X About Long Range Snow Models. Promise Me a Sliver of a Chance of Snow & I'll Follow You Forever :) I Look at Models I Only Believe It When I See Flurries Faliing.... Be Kind.

 

First thing I want to mention is the story that took over Weather X last night and that is the announcement that Melissa had the strongest "wind gust" measured by a dropsondes at 252 MPH. Again, this is a "Wind gust" not sustained winds and people need to remember that. I remember when the gust was measured as many of us were online monitoring the Recon feed in real time and there was discussion on whether it would stand up under evaluation as accurate. Any rare measurement as such is carefully researched by the NHC to be sure it was accurate as accuracy is their middle name. It also comes in as the 2nd strongest on Earth that we have measured in a Hurricane!  

So typical sometimes of a huge monster storm checking in late in the season. In 1992 after we went without any named storms all through June, July and early August Andrew formed. 1992 has to be one of the hottest, most unbearable summers in Miami I have ever lived through. And, then came Andrew and Andrew as we all know did Rapid Intensification and after turning towards a late Summer trip to Miami went Cat 5 in real time as all of Miami watched in horror. No escape route present and Andrew ripped across South Florida taking aim again on Louisiana. 

I was worried about something in the SW Caribbean that might move up into the warmest water just South of Jamaica and I had mentioned it many times as history shows the Caribbean produces monsters in late October. A few online called me out as hyping and trying to scare people for click bait purposes. Really, I have never posted anything for Clickbait. I don't have a button on my blog for donations, if someone reads me on X or elsewhere such as the blog that's good and I hope I have helped. I specialize in knowing Hurricane History very well and the signs were there and yet few westbound tropical waves made it into the basin. So rather than forming in the SW Carib from a CAG that was constantly forecast but barely showed at all this year............a westbound wave went right for that hot spot and exploded into Melissa one of the strongest storms ever measured in modern times. 

This is my OMG image I keep to remember.

Solid ball of deadly, destructive winds.

The more you know about hurricanes...

...the more they get to you.

Still in awe.

Death toll still climbing.
Luckily they had warning.

There was no warning for many others....

...that litter history with details from journals.

Before blogs there were weather journals!

The next thing I wanted to mention is the arguing online about how "stupid" people are to post long range Winter Forecasts as if we have not been posting long range models during hurricane season. Really? This is not new. Okay now we have AI models and many feel they are even more accurate than the EURO while possibly not as accurate as the GFS. Nothing is new in Weather and people have always posted models that push the boundaries on reality and wishcasting. Why people are being attacked as if they are quacks that somehow managed to get a degree in megteorology I don't know. I could say "jealousy" cause there's always someone wishing on snow that'll click on any model even 3 weeks out or more. Just promise me the chance of snow and you have my attention. I know they are not reliable and infact real snow storms in the South form in real time and usually the NWS is not very accurate more than 2 or 3 days out. Sorry but telling it like it is. A model shows the snow sliding South and everyone runs and shares it. Then a new run shows it pulling back up and Snow Lovers look sad and then the next model run shows maybe just maybe there's a chance. 

Come on this is nothing new and I'd rather have a meteorologist explaining it's a maybe than having another TicToc video with a weather psychic who threw tarot cards and explains that Saturn will be conjuct the Moon and the cold will be a real thing and Neptune is watery so it's likely we will get 20 inches of snow in the South on November 30th! Really?? Really??? Choose your poison if you like boring go with those who never show anything past the 5 day and if you like to dream dangerously follow the poster that shows you there's a sliver of a chance of a snow storm. Life is about choices, choose carefully and stop being mean to someone who you are only giving advertisement to your viewers who may want to see longer range model. You're only giving that person more attention and more clicks. And there are people who read the Almanac and believe and others know it's good bathroom reading! 

Many feel they are more superior than others because they don't share snow forecasts more than a week out. Okay. Good for them. It's a big world. Somewhere between always and never is where you will find me.  Below is an image from a video on YT that I noticed today. I have watched him sometimes. I'll admit if he promises me the slightest chance of snow flurries in North Carolina I will watch why he thinks that even though I've seen 20 posts on X so far today showing me the same thing.

I mean do you believe in Santa Claus?

Do you believe in the little elves?

Do you believe in his workshop at the N Pole?

It's one of the most accepted ornaments around.

Santa smiling as if he has our favorite

(fill in the blank)

Yet is there really a Beauty Queen Barbie in his bag?

As a child I wanted the fancy Barbie.

My mother was not a fan.

I guess she bought off Santa.

I got some knock off dupe from a drug store.

Really, it was horrible.

I was told I was ungrateful.

Because I said "it's not a real Barbie"

I was just being honest.

My Uncle Howard tho....

...would come thru every year.

He'd visit Miami and ...

....bring me a Birthday Barbie :)

I could see my mother pursuing her lips.

Uncle Howard was fun!!

Seriously everyone get a grip.

It's X it's not the Family Bible!

X is one part news one part entertainment.

YouTube has something for everyone.

Use your remote and choose wisely.

You don't have to attack someone ....

....don't be so judgey. 

I don't believe a model for snow until....

...the snow begins to fall.

Miller A Miller B Miller C

I don't care.

I adore Mitch for posting these!

Be kind.

Be nice.

We are not that "stupid" we just wany snow.

Any chance at all we will talk on it!

I saw Santa in Savannah this week!

I know Santa isn't real....

...even tho TV Mets have been known to dress up as him!

I just wanted a sexy, cute Barbie with heels.

It's free to wish.........

....free to believe.

Like Charlie Brown the snow is stolen ....

...by the mean Snow Queen!

But that's another story for another day.

Sweet snowy dreams,

BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on X

and ps if I get a bit of Northern Lights...

...I'd be so fricking happy too!

Wishing, praying, smiling.

My brother Ronnie loves this song.

He believed less in Santa....

...and more on Kellier Pickler who he had a crush on.

;)

I wanted a dress like that for my Barbie... 

.....but I digress. 

;)